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There is absolutely no question that the biggest area of growth right now in fantasy football is with the explosion of Daily Fantasy Contests. With several top sites out there already and more entering this space each day, Footballguys is expanding the coverage in this arena to give Footballguys Insiders exclusive coverage of the latest news and information of Daily Fantasy Football.
Over the course of this football season, we will talk about numerous aspects of Daily Fantasy Football. From articles on these sites, strategies to win daily contests, bankroll (money management) strategy, different league and game types, signup and reload bonuses, players to target each week and even contests that look to be undersubscribed ("overlays"), we will cover it all. Welcome to the one-stop shop for Daily coverage.
Please note that even though the NFL has weekly Thursday games and DFS sites have contests that start on Thursdays, in general we will be looking at the majority of the contests and DFS games that do not begin until Sunday. Our weekly coverage does include Thursday DFS information if you are looking to get a jump on the DFS action for the week with the first game on Thursday.
DFS LESSON OF THE WEEK - MORE FLEX SPOT MANAGEMENT AND SMALL PLAYER POOLS
Last week I gave some advice about managing flex spots in leagues and sites that allow you to make changes after some games (but not all) kick off. This prompted a discussion between David Dodds and I about the topic, and David shared a great piece of advice with me. Allow me to share it with you now as another lesson.
Many Daily Fantasy Sports players enter a lineup into a contest well before the game starts – and quite often they either forget to get back to the lineup as the start of the contest nears, or they just stick with their original lineup. The numbers vary as to how often it happens, but it happens quite a bit (at least 80% of the time, according to some sources). So how do you take advantage of this? David’s suggestion is a pretty simple one – enter games that start on Thursday and “fade” players that are playing on Thursday night (avoid using these players). This allows you to come back to these entries over the weekend as more information about who is in or out prior to Sunday kickoffs, giving you a probable advantage over players that are in the “set it and forget it” mentality. Great advice.
The conversations amongst the Footballguys’ staff are very informative, and we try and give you some glimpses of those discussions in our Roundtables and with lessons like I just shared. Another discussion that recently happened included both David and Maurile Tremblay, as the three of us were discussing covering Monday / Thursday contests. I personally have found that there is very little coverage of these games, as sites like ours (and others) tend to focus on the NFL on a week by week basis, and for good reason. Contests that span Monday and Thursday are “cross-week” contests, and those are very hard to find good information about to construct a good DFS lineup as a result. That can be advantageous for some DFS players, but there is a concern about playing in a DFS contest that only includes a few games (much like only playing 4PM Eastern or “Prime Time” contests, like Sunday and Monday Night Football). While we were talking about covering Monday / Thursday games, both David and Maurile told me that they view these games as negative expectation value outcomes, or –EV contests. Overall I tend to agree, as you need nearly a perfect lineup to profit in a DFS contest with so few games from which to select players, but I wanted to provide a counterpoint to this outlook.
Another Footballguys’ staff member, Chase Stuart, told me several years ago that when he drafts a fantasy player as a flier late in a draft, he wants to have a story for that selection that leads to success. For example, if you drafted Carlos Hyde late this year, your story was “Frank Gore is aging fast, and Hyde is the next man up. He could be a fantasy starter and stud in the second half of the season, if not sooner.” That’s a solid story, and leads to a path to success for Hyde with just one “maybe” event in the story that leads to success – Hyde getting past Gore on the depth chart. I tell you this now because I am building upon this “have a story” view when I look at playing fantasy contests that include just two NFL games. If I can depict a story with my DFS lineup that reflect how I believe that the games are going to go, then I believe that I have a recipe towards success. As an example, I am going to share a lineup I used this past week – not because I want to beat my chest and tell you that I cashed, but for the purpose of showing you the method in which I constructed the lineup and how it “spoke to me” and reflected what I thought was a likely game outcome.
The above lineup finished in the Top 20 of two GPP tournaments, and for good reason. Considering how well the Saints played against Green Bay and how poorly Carolina has been defending the pass, I decided that my lineup story would be based on having Drew Brees as my quarterback, Jimmy Graham at tight end, Brandon Cooks as a wide receiver and also Mark Ingram as a tailback – all for New Orleans. The thoughts were that Brees would throw to Cooks and Graham all day long, and then Ingram would pound the ball late as the Saints would win handily over Carolina. That game concept afforded me over half of my team and allowed me to build the rest of the roster, adding the New Orleans defense to the mix. The rest of the roster was expecting Dallas to do well – at least statistically – against Washington (and also to fade Washington players). The thought process was a successful one, so here are a few lessons I have about playing in two-game GPP contests:
Lesson #1: Think through how you believe both games will play out. If you have a good feel for both games, look to build a DFS lineup around that thought.
Lesson #2: Build a lineup for DFS success. Do not overemphasize one team too greatly, but combining a defense with a good offensive outpouring can be successful.
Lesson #3: Nearly every player is going to be in a ton of lineups. Stick to big reward contests and do not play too much of these contests – as the variance is very high.
The third lesson is one I want to leave you with for this week. Even though my lineup for this past Monday and Thursday was a good one, that does not mean it is without risk. With so few players to choose from amongst just two games, the % owned is very high for most of the regular fantasy names – just look at the % draft information in Figure 1 – nearly half of the lineup was owned by more than two-thirds of the entire league. That means the other player choices are going to greatly impact the end result for this team. The difference between first place and 30th in this particular contest was less than 10 fantasy points, and the difference between 1st and last cash spot was under 30 points – so you really do need to have nearly a perfect lineup to be successful. So if you think you have a good read on both games on Monday and Thursday, consider building a lineup that speaks to you and reflects those games – but do not overextend the amount you play.
INDUSTRY NEWS
FanDuel Changes Visibility Rules
FanDuel has been a source of valuable information for quite a while now, as DFS players could enter a contest that started on Thursday and then see not just the % ownership of all the players in the contest, but also what other players' lineups looked like. This was great information, but as of this week FanDuel has made the change to hide that information. Further details of this change are availble here.
From the link on FanDuel:
To ensure all FanDuelers have a level playing field, we are making some changes to our Live Scoring experience. The change is to protect your lineups and all the hard work that’s poured into them before entering contests.
Starting today, your opponent’s lineups will only display the drafted players scheduled to play on the current day. This will happen once the first game of the day starts for that particular sport.
Let’s use our Week 9 Sunday Million contest as an example. There will be two player reveals in your opponent’s lineup. The first reveal will happen Sunday at 1:00pm (ET) when lineups lock. This will display all the drafted players who have games scheduled to start on that day. The second reveal will occur on Monday at 8:30pm (ET), revealing all players scheduled to start in the matchup between the Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants.
It’s important to note the following:
1. Your own lineups will always be visible, even when multiple lineups are submitted to a contest.
2. This new rule will only affect multi-day contests. Any entry with a slate of games that start in the same day will have no observable difference.
3. This new rule applies to all devices/platforms.
4. This new rule applies to all sports.
Now, DFS players are going to be even more dependent on sites like Footballguys to provide this kind of information. Articles like "The Fade" by Justin Bonnema and more intel by David Dodds will be provided to Footballguys Pro members to reflect the early ownership numbers at both FanDuel and likely ownership at other sites - important information for anyone looking to build lineups during the weekend for the upcoming NFL DFS contests for the week.
Another Major Live Event - Fantasy Aces
Another major event in the DFS space is highlighted here with the FAFC (Fantasy Aces Football Championship) Live Event, which will take place on November 23rd. This is a remarkable event with a big prize pool, and all of it is available at the $109 entry fee. All 13 Fantasy Aces members who qualify will win the trip and a cash prize of at least $1,500, with a shot at the top cash prize of $40,000. Here are the details:
- 13 Fantasy Aces members will be flown out to Southern California for an all expense 2-night stay and compete in the $100,000 Aces Daily Fantasy Football Championship on November 23rd.
- 2 Night Stay at the beautiful Balboa Bay Resort in Newport Beach, CA (November 22nd - 23rd)
- Saturday Night Pre-Game Kickoff Yacht Cocktail Party on the Mojo (100ft Yacht)
- The Main Event - $100,000 Championship Party at American Junkie in Newport Beach, CA
- Include a plus 1 (pay for the cost of the flight and we will reimburse the costs via site credit)
Read all of the details and join here:
ON THE DAILY AND INTERACTIVE VALUE CHARTS
Footballguys' own Maurile Tremblay does not just do projections for Footballguys - oh no, far from it. One of the best innovations that he has provided since last year is his "On the Daily" column, where he takes his projections, David Dodds' projections, and Sigmund Bloom's projections and provides recommended optimal lineups for five major DFS sites (FanDuel, DraftKings, DraftDay, FantasyAces, FantasyFeud) based on those projections. How cool is that?
But what if you want to play at other sites or build your own lineup (or multiple lineups)? Once again, Maurile has you covered. He has provided interactive value chart pages where you can click on each player, sort by position, salary and value (points per $10K) to craft your own custom team. All of the links for these are provided below in our Daily Content on Footballguys table plus they appear weekly on Footballguys' weekly home page.
But wait - there's more! Maurile went even further by adding the ability to partially fill out a lineup and have the tool fill in the rest of your roster. From Maurile himself:
How cool is that?
DAILY CONTENT AROUND FOOTBALLGUYS.COM
NFL WEEK 9
Halfway into the NFL season, and we have had some big, big contests in DFS so far - and the fun continues. Let's dig into some of the big contests out there. If there are any that I miss, please drop me an email (pasquino@footballguys.com) and I will update this article.
FANDUEL - WEEK 9 BIG CONTESTS
All of these contests can be found in the lobby at FanDuel.
FanDuel Presents the Playboy Championship
This year our friends at FanDuel are offering you the chance to go on the trip of a lifetime to the world famous Playboy Mansion in Los Angeles! You and 75 finalists will compete for $1,000,000 in prizes, including a $150,000 first place prize as you sit poolside with Hef at this year’s hottest fantasy football event.
Not only that, they’ll be running contests for 25 additional trip-only packages to maximize your chances of getting in on this exclusive party. That’s 100 chances to win!
Qualifiers start at only $5 to enter, seats to this epic event will be going fast, so enter one of the qualifiers and punch your ticket now!
Click to enter PFC $5 Qualifier
Click to enter PFC $50 Qualifier
Click to enter PFC $535 Qualifier
DRAFTKINGS - WEEK 9 BIG CONTESTS
Are you interested in winning $1 Million Dollars in a single week? DraftKings hopes that you are.
NFL $2.2M Millionaire Maker - $1,000,000 to First Place. Welcome to the second edition of the $2,200,000 guaranteed Millionaire Maker, where you can turn $27 into $1 Million! Over the past three weeks, the Millionaire Maker has paid out $1 Million to first place, and DraftKings is doing it again this week. First place will become an instant millionaire, and over 15,000 spots are paid out in total. Multiple lineups per player are permitted. Will you be this season's next millionaire? Enter now!
NFL Sunday 300 Grand. $300,000 in total prizes. $200 to enter. Up to 1,667 entries with the top 350 getting a payout. $50,000 to first.
World's Biggest $50 50/50 - This 2,778-player contest boasts a $125,010 prize pool and pays out the top 1,389 finishing positions. All winners earn $90. Good luck!
World's Biggest $20 50/50 - This 6,112-player contest boasts a $110,016 prize pool and pays out the top 3,056 finishing positions. All winners earn $36. Good luck!
World's Biggest $10 50/50 - This 11,112-player contest boasts a $100,008 prize pool and pays out the top 5,556 finishing positions. All winners earn $18. Good luck!
Note from Jeff Pasquino: As of Thursday afternoon, all of these contests were less than 50% full. Keep in mind that this is a guaranteed prize, so there is definitely an opportunity here for a large overlay situation. Watch these closely, all the way to Sunday morning.
Future Big Contests:
"Four months, SEVEN millionaires": Seven contests where the top winner will win at least $1 Million. Weeks 5, 6, 7, 8, 11, 15 and 16 of the NFL season. Direct entry is $27, but you can earn your way in for as little as a quarter - yes, $0.25. (Odds are certainly much steeper at $0.25 vs. $27, but hard to get more action for a quarter!).
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
