For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is the Wednesday edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will run through the game script for Thursday Night Football, while also discussing kickers and team defenses for the upcoming weekend. The topic of tomorrow’s edition will center on QBs and WRs, while Friday’s focus will be RBs and TEs. Let’s dive in…
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMESCRIPT
This Thursday night’s NFL game features an NFC South divisional matchup between the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers. Vegas has the visiting Saints as slight favorites over the Panthers, projecting a final score of 25-23, in favor of the Saints. That betting line is more of a reflection of Carolina’s ineptitude than it is about this Saints team, who are winless on the road this season. The Panthers have won only once in their previous six games, which is the result of the offense sputtering most weeks.
The cure, however, for a sputtering offense is a matchup against a bad defense and the Panthers will get exactly that in the form of the Saints on Thursday night. The Saints rank 31st in passing yards allowed per game (289.3) and rank dead-last in passing coverage (per ProFootballFocus), which should bode well for Cam Newton and his favorite receivers, Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen. The Saints yield 23 fantasy points per game (traditional scoring) to opposing quarterbacks and are 4th worst in the NFL in defending an opposing team’s WR1; meanwhile, they have been relatively effective against opposing tight ends, allowing less than 8 fantasy points to every tight end they have faced. Thus, the advantage goes to Benjamin over Olsen, but Olsen should still get his share of action because he is such an integral component of the Panthers’ offense. On the ground, the Panthers will send out their standard crew of aging running backs (Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams), neither of whom is enticing in good matchups, let alone this one against the 10th ranked Saints rushing defense.
The Saints will march out their standard bevy of receivers, while both Mark Ingram and Travaris Cadet will lead the running game. Ingram looked spectacular last Sunday night against the Packers, putting up a career-high 172 yards (and a TD) on the ground, while Cadet chipped in with 4 receptions for 40 yards through the air. Ingram could be in store for another nice night against the Panthers, who are allowing a league-high 5.2 yards per carry on the ground and are ranked 5th in rushing yards allowed per game (135.2). Drew Brees will obviously throw the ball 35+ times, which keeps him in play every week; the Panthers’ secondary is ranked amongst the lowest in the league and will assuredly have problems covering the likes of Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Brandon Cooks, and Kenny Stills. The question with the Saints’ passing game is two-fold: 1) Will Drew Brees perform outside of the Superdome?, and 2) Can these high-priced players reach value for DFS format? Of Brees’ receivers, Graham would ordinarily be the standout, but his health concerns and snap counts over the past few weeks leave a DFS gamer a bit apprehensive about paying his upper echelon salary. Thus, the nod goes to either Cooks or Stills, whose salaries are more reasonable for their predictive output.
This game could go either way; the line out of Vegas is suspiciously low, which leads me to suspect that Carolina will show up for this game and give the Saints a run for their money. The Saints should be able to move the ball with ease against this suspect defense, but their inability to play well away from home is troubling; likewise, the Panthers should be able to throw the ball against the Saints’ secondary, but Cam has been hit-or-miss quite often this year. It’s a toss-up…but for DFS purposes, look to Mark Ingram who is a strong play; otherwise, this game is full of a bunch of GPP-only plays.
Predicted Score: Carolina 21, New Orleans 20.
Here are my rated selections for both cash games & GPPs:
4-stars: None.
3-stars: Mark Ingram (DK @ $5500, FD @ $6100; Cash & GPP)
2-stars: Kelvin Benjamin (DK @ $6600, FD @ $7000; Cash & GPP), Brandin Cooks (DK @ $4100, FD @ $6400; Cash & GPP)
1-star: Travaris Cadet (DK @ $3500, FD @ $5300; GPP only), Jimmy Graham (DK @ $6700, FD @ $7000; GPP only), Greg Olsen (DK @ $6000, FD @ $7200; GPP only), Kenny Stills (DK @ $3600, FD @ $6000; GPP only), Drew Brees (DK @ $8300, DK @ $9100)
KICKERS
Because predicting field goals is almost impossible, there is no reason to pay up for a kicker in daily games, unless you have extra salary to spend. If you want to be contrarian for a large-field GPP tournament, it sometimes make sense to pay a little more for a kicker, as most daily gamers will choose the cheapest option available on the highest-potential scoring team. With that in mind, here are some considerations for Sunday’s game slate at at several price points (FanDuel only):
Steven Hauschka, SEA ($5000 versus Oakland): The Seahawks are projected to be the highest-scoring team in the NFL this Sunday against the winless Oakland Raiders. If Seattle stumbles once or twice in Oakland territory, Hauschka should get a few field goal attempts in addition to a series of extra points; add in the fact that this game will be playing inside at CenturyLink Field and Hauschka is a very solid play at a mid-level kicker salary.
Chandler Catanzaro, ARI ($4900 versus Dallas): The Cowboys looked mortal against the Giants on Monday Night Football when they dropped their second game of the season to the Redskins. This weekend, they host the 6-1 Arizona Cardinals who, despite their record, are 31st in the NFL in redzone efficiency (41.1%), which means that they move the ball well, but often have to resort to field goals, rather than touchdowns. For his part, Catanzaro is perfect on the season and averaging 9.9 fantasy points per game, which would reach value for cash games on FanDuel.
Brandon McManus, DEN ($4600 versus New England): McManus' salary does not make a whole lot of sense, given the Broncos' propensity to score points; at $4600, he will be the most highly-owned kicker on FanDuel in both cash and GPP formats this weekend. In fairness, the Broncos have the highest redzone efficiency rating in the NFL (82.6%) and McManus' field goal opportunities are sometimes limited; however, McManus offers guaranteed points in the most potent offense in the NFL at near min-salary, which is why he should be on your fantasy radar this weekend.
TEAM DEFENSES
Bengals (versus Jacksonville): (FD: $5600, DK: $3300). The first of three upper-tier defenses this week, the Bengals play host to the Jaguars, who yielded 28 points to the Miami Dolphins' defense last week. Rookie Blake Bortles has twice as many interceptions (12) as touchdowns (6) on the season and his offensive line has given up the most sacks (33) of any team in the NFL. With Vegas projecting a blowout, Bortles will be forced to drop back and pass (again), which could result in multiple turnovers for the Bengals' secondary who are ranked 2nd in the league in passing TD's allowed.
Seahawks (versus Oakland): (FD: $5500, DK: $3300). The Seahawks have limped through their previous three games, losing back-to-back games against Dallas and St. Louis and then escaping Carolina with a 13-9 last-minute victory against the Panthers. This week, however, should be different; Seattle returns home to host the winless Oakland Raiders in a game that Vegas believes will be an absolute blowout. Playing in CenturyLink Field is tough for a good team (ask Aaron Rodgers), but for a bad team with a rookie quarterback, it could be an absolute disaster.
Chiefs (versus NY Jets): (FD: $5300, DK: $3300). The Chiefs are quietly the best defense in the NFL. They are solid on both phases of their defense; the Chiefs allow the fewest passing yards per game in the entire NFL and they are the only team in the league that has not surrendered a rushing touchdown this year. They are matched up against the NY Jets, who will start Michael Vick in Arrowhead Stadium, where the Chiefs held the Rams to only 7 points last week, picking up 7 sacks along the way. With Vegas projecting the Jets to score only 15 points, the Chiefs should be a safe play for your DFS rosters on Sunday.
