For the uninitiated, playing daily games on sites like FanDuel and DraftKings can be an enjoyable experience, but equally sobering is the fact that season-long knowledge does not always translate to success in the daily space. FootballGuys will bring you a series of value- and strategic-based selections from a number of seasoned daily veterans throughout the NFL season. Herein is another edition of “tipandpick’s Tips and Picks,” where we will examine the salaries of the QBs and WRs on both FanDuel and DraftKings for Sunday and Monday. Finally, in the next article, the topic will center on RBs and TEs.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for either GPPs or cash games (sometimes both). GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games; cash game players are consistent with high fantasy floors. In some instances, the value (based on salary) for a player is so strong, he may fall into both categories…let’s have a look.
GPP QUARTERBACKS
Andy Dalton (Primarily GPP; FD: $8500, DK: $6300). The Bengals are projected to score nearly 4 touchdowns against the hapless Jaguars in Cincinnati on Sunday. Gio Bernard is banged up and looks as though he may not play, which will put Jeremy Hill in a prime position to capitalize for fantasy production. That said, do not expect Hill to get 25 carries in his first start; the Bengals will spell Hill with Cedric Peerman and a good dose of the passing game. Andy Dalton could have A.J. Green back for this one and it is a prime matchup for the passing game, as the Jags are near the bottom of every major defensive category against the pass. Dalton is a particularly attractive play on DraftKings, where he would only need ~ 25 fantasy points (> 300 yards and 2 touchdowns) to reach value for GPP purposes.
Alex Smith (Primarily GPP; FD: $7100, DK: $5700). Alex Smith and the Chiefs are not celebrated for their vaunted passing game; for that reason, Smith will forever be low-owned in DFS games, making him an attractive play in GPP format. That said, the Chiefs have a prime matchup against a Jets' defense that seems to be worsening during their ongoing 7-game losing streak. The Jets' secondary continues to be a doormat, allowing opposing offenses to walk all over them--opponents have 22 passing touchdowns versus only a single interception all season. To reach GPP value on the major DFS sites, Smith would need to score ~ 22 points, something he has done 9 (out of 22) times since becoming the starting QB in Kansas City.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (GPP only; FD: $6400, DK: $5700). The Texans have been leaning heavily on Arian Foster as of late and for good reason; the star running back has 4 consecutive 100-yard rushing games and 8 touchdowns over that span. This week, the Texans may need to involve their receivers more than usual because their opponent, the Eagles, have only given up 3 rushing touchdowns on the season. On the other hand, the Eagles have yielded 267 passing yards per game and 15 touchdowns through the air (versus only 3 interceptions) on the season, which bodes well for Fitzpatrick, Andre Johnson, and DeAndre Hopkins. Lastly, the name "Ryan Fitzpatrick" does not instill confidence into a DFS player's heart, which means that he will not be highly-owned and should garner your consideration for GPP's on Sunday.
Brian Hoyer (GPP only; FD: $6200, DK: $5300). Hoyer is another GPP consideration this weekend simply because of his plus matchup against one of the worst-rated pass defenses in the NFL, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs defense is giving up a league-high 32 points per game, 286 passing yards per game (3rd worst), and 16 passing touchdowns (4th worst), all of which should give Brian Hoyer ample opportunity to perform well on Sunday. Vegas projects the Browns to score ~ 25 points, which means that if 2-3 of those come through the air, Hoyer (and Andrew Hawkins or Taylor Gabriel) would be a low-owned, high-upside option for your GPP's this weekend.
CASH GAME QUARTERBACKS
Andrew Luck (Cash and GPP format; FD: $10,100, DK: $10,000). Andrew Luck’s worst game this year was a 20-point ‘stinker’ versus the Philadelphia Eagles in Week #2 of the season; in every other game this season, Luck has scored ~ 25 fantasy points or more. The fact is that the Colts’ offense is built around passing the ball; Luck is averaging 43 passing attempts per game, which equates to major yardage through the air. 300-yard games for Luck are not uncommon (7 out of 8 games this year), which nets you 12 points (15 on DraftKings after the bonus) before he throws for a single touchdown. If Luck connects on just 2 touchdowns, he reaches value on both sites. For these reasons, Mr. Consistency is the perfect play for cash game lineups, if you can manage to afford his pricy salary.
Russell Wilson (Cash and GPP format; FD: $8600, DK: $7800). Russell Wilson makes his first appearance of the year in the cash game section this week due to his supersized matchup against the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have given up 225+ yards passing to every opposing quarterback this year (except Ryan Fitzpatrick, who put up 140 yards and 2 TD’s, good enough for 14 fantasy points). If Wilson is able to do the same and throws for 225 yards, rushes for his season average of ~ 50 yards, and throws just a single touchdown, he will finish the day with 18 fantasy points on DFS rosters…which is basically his floor against this dreadful Raiders’ team.
Colin Kaeparnick (Cash and GPP format; FD: $7800, DK: $7000). At the lower tier of cash quarterback pricing this week is Colin Kaeparnick, who gets a nice matchup against a Rams’ team that he smoked for over 30 fantasy points just 3 weeks ago. Kaeparnick is a bit like Russell Wilson, in that he offers some upside with his legs and is generally good for 3-5 points from scrambling alone. For cash games, Kaeparnick only needs between 16-18 points to reach value, which is basically asking him to throw for 200 yards and a touchdown (in addition to his rushing points). In a game where the Niners are slated to score 4 touchdowns, it is difficult to envision a scenario where Kaeparnick cannot achieve those types of numbers, particularly in light of the fact that has been his floor all season.
GPP WIDE RECEIVERS
Michael Floyd (Primarily GPP; FD: $6500, DK: $3800) Last week, Michael Floyd left a sour taste in DFS players’ mouths everywhere when he put up a donut on their scoreboards in a plus matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles; because of that performance, expect Floyd to be low-owned across the industry this week, which makes him a great GPP play against the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys do not pressure the quarterback well (only 10 sacks through 8 games), which means that Carson Palmer should be able to sit back and find guys like Fitzgerald, Floyd, and Brown; of these guys, Floyd is the deep threat, which makes him an ideal boom or bust GPP play.
Andrew Hawkins (Primarily GPP; FD: $6400, DK: $4900). The Buccaneers’ secondary is 31st in the league in passing yards allowed per game, yet they are surprisingly strong in preventing big passing yard plays (ranked 7th in the NFL); this means that the Bucs do not necessarily get burned on deep routes like the Falcons or Texans, but instead ‘die the death of a thousand cuts.’ Andrew Hawkins is the perfect type of receiver to exploit this defensive scheme because he is a possession receiver who catches a lot of underneath routes. With Jordan Cameron likely out with a concussion, Hawkins should see even more looks this week. The Browns are projected to score ~ 25 points and it is highly likely that Hawkins could be heavily involved in making that happen, but he will be underowned because, after all, he is still a Brown.
Wes Welker (Primarily GPP; FD: $6300, DK: $3600). Through the Broncos’ first 7 games, Wes Welker has 181 total yards receiving and 1 touchdown, which has the DFS world completely ignoring him. Do not make that mistake. Welker may not be the player he once was, but he is still a key cog in this Broncos’ offense and is playing most of the snaps. Just last week, we were saying that Emmanuel Sanders only had a single touchdown despite being heavily involved in the offense and Peyton responded by throwing him 3 touchdowns in one night. Welker could be Peyton’s flavor of the week at a reduced price in a game that has the highest total on the board; bump up Welker’s value if the weather is as windy as currently being forecasted because he runs a lot of ‘dink and dunk’ routes that would be useful in such an environment.
Cordarelle Patterson (GPP only; FD: $6300, DK: $4800). Patterson finally got some looks in the passing game last week against the porous Tampa Bay Bucs’ secondary; this week, he gets a similar assignment against the Redskins, who are rated worse than the Bucs’ in pass coverage (worst in the NFL per ProFootballFocus). Meanwhile, the Redskins are pretty tough against the run, allowing only 3 rushing touchdowns on the season. The dichotomy of the Redskin defense may force the Vikings to air it out to beat them, which means that Patterson could get another 12-target day—if he does, expect him to get one into the endzone this time around.
Anquan Boldin (Primarily GPP; FD: $6300, DK: $5000) In my RB’s and TE’s piece, you will see that I highly recommend Frank Gore as a cash game running back this week because of how bad the Rams’ defense is in defending the run. That said, the Niners are projected to score nearly 4 touchdowns, which means that there is plenty of scoring to distribute between the team. Boldin is the highest-targeted receiver on the Niners, yet he only has a single touchdown on the season; look for some positive regression this weekend when he lines up against rookie LaMarcus Joyner.
CASH GAME WIDE RECEIVERS
Demaryius Thomas (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9200, DK: $9000). Demaryius Thomas will line up against Darrelle Revis on Sunday, which will be enough to scare away some DFS gamers, but not me. Thomas looks matchup-proof at this point in the season—Peyton is targeting him 11 times per game and his targets are all over the field, which means that Revis will have his work cut out for him. Cash game receivers are all about consistency and Thomas is the most consistent receiver on a team projected to score 28 points in the highest total game of the week. If you can afford him, he’s a great play. [The weather in Foxborough Sunday is very concerning; if you are reading this on Sunday, I would advise you to pivot off of Thomas in cash games because the passing game may be minimized due to extreme wind conditions. Updated Sunday @ 9:30 AM]
Antonio Brown (Cash & GPP format; FD: $9000, DK: $9100). If you prefer to pivot off Demaryius Thomas, you can look to Antonio Brown at a similar price point with a similar floor. Ordinarily, Brown would get the task of trying to fend off Jimmy Smith, but Smith is likely out with an injury, which means that Dominque Franks will shadow Brown…or at least try to. Brown has been fabulous in almost every game this year and is arguably the best WR in the game right now. With the arrival of Martavis Bryant to stretch the field, Brown should only get better. Expect 10 targets and at least 6-7 catches for 100 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.
Jeremy Maclin (Cash & GPP format; FD: $8200, DK: $7600). Maclin had a great weekend against the Arizona Cardinals last week when he finished the day with 12 receptions (16 targets) for 187 yards and 2 touchdowns. While that kind of performance generally comes but once a year, it is reasonable to expect Maclin to have another nice game on Sunday against the Houston Texans; the Texans are yielding 270+ passing yards and over 2 touchdowns per game on the season and do not appear to have the personnel capable of shutting down a guy who is averaging double-digit targets on the season. He is a solid mid-range cash game play if you want to save a bit on the higher-end recommendations.
Andre Johnson (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6400, DK: $5500). Andre Johnson will be on the opposite site of the field of Maclin on Sunday and he also deserves your consideration. Last week, Johnson made an appearance in this column after the Texans’ coaching staff and Ryan Fitzgerald both admitted that they need to get the ball to Johnson more often; Johnson finished the day with 12 targets, tied for his season-high. If the Texans continue to get Johnson 12 targets/game, his output will surely increase because he is long overdue for some positive regression—in 2014, he has 46 receptions for 551 yards and only 1 touchdown. The single touchdown is why you can get him so cheaply, but this is the week where Johnson gets into the endzone and makes that salary jump.
Rueben Randle (Cash & GPP format; FD: $6400, DK: $5400). Rueben Randle is the highest-targeted receiver on a Giants’ team that will host the same Indianapolis Colts’ who just surrendered 6 passing touchdowns to Ben Roethlisberger last week. SIX. The Giants are projected to score 24 points and will be without Rashad Jennings once again, which means that Eli Manning will be looking to find open receivers against this banged up Indy secondary. With 13 redzone targets on the year, Randle is only trailing Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas, Brandon Marshall, and Antonio Brown. At a bargain price, roster Randle with ease and wait for a Monday night payoff.
