Every week, the first step of your DFS homework should be to examine the opening Vegas odds on all the NFL games for that week. Through some fairly simple algebra, it is easy to derive a spreadsheet that predicts team totals for every game, thereby allowing you to develop a rudimentary gamescript to help narrow down your decisions for the week. Once the appealing (and unappealing) games have been highlighted, it becomes easier to focus upon those games to help build your core of players for that week; the caveat, however, is that the NFL is a dynamic league and anything is subject to change from Tuesday to Sunday...so keep that in mind as the week progresses and always monitor player injuries, weather conditions, and potential roster moves. Let's take a look.
Team | Opponent | Odds | Team Total | Game Total | Running Game | Passing Game | Team Defense |
Seattle | Oakland | -16.5 | 29.75 | 43 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
Denver | New England | -3 | 29 | 55 | ++ | +++ | |
Cincinnati | Jacksonville | -12 | 27.75 | 43.5 | +++ | ++ | +++ |
Indianapolis | NY Giants | -3 | 27 | 51 | + | ++ | |
San Francisco | St. Louis | -10.5 | 27 | 43.5 | +++ | + | ++ |
Kansas City | NY Jets | -10.5 | 26 | 41.5 | ++ | + | +++ |
Dallas | Arizona | -4 | 26 | 48 | + | + | |
New England | Denver | 3 | 26 | 55 | ++ | ||
Cleveland | Tampa Bay | -7 | 25.25 | 43.5 | + | ++ | + |
Philadelphia | Houston | -2 | 25 | 48 | |||
New Orleans | Carolina | -1.5 | 24.75 | 48 | |||
NY Giants | Indianapolis | 3 | 24 | 51 | |||
Baltimore | Pittsburgh | 0 | 23.75 | 47.5 | |||
Pittsburgh | Baltimore | 0 | 23.75 | 47.5 | |||
Minnesota | Washington | -2.5 | 23.5 | 44.5 | |||
Carolina | New Orleans | 1.5 | 23.25 | 48 | |||
Houston | Philadelphia | 2 | 23 | 48 | |||
San Diego | Miami | 0 | 22 | 44 | |||
Arizona | Dallas | 4 | 22 | 48 | |||
Miami | San Diego | 0 | 22 | 44 | |||
Washington | Minnesota | 2.5 | 21 | 44.5 | |||
Tampa Bay | Cleveland | 7 | 18.25 | 43.5 | |||
St. Louis | San Francisco | 10.5 | 16.5 | 43.5 | + | ||
Jacksonville | Cincinnati | 12 | 15.75 | 43.5 | + | ||
NY Jets | Kansas City | 10.5 | 15.5 | 41.5 | + | ||
Oakland | Seattle | 16.5 | 13.25 | 43 | + |
THREE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Denver (versus New England): The Broncos are projected to score the second-highest number of points on this weekend's NFL slate and the strength of their offense is the passing game. All things in Denver go through Peyton's right arm and he would appear to be in play this Sunday, along with Demaryius, Emmanuel, Wes, and Julius.
RUNNING GAME
- Seattle (versus Oakland): Seattle is coming off three consecutive tough games (loss to Dallas, loss to St. Louis, slim win against Carolina) and Vegas opened them at 14-point favorites against the Raiders at home this weekend. The sharp money in Vegas was immediately laid on Seattle, which shot the line up another 2 points (to 16). As a 16-point favorite against the 26th-ranked rushing defense in the NFL, the Seahawks' running game, namely Marshawn Lynch, should be in an ideal spot to atone for some recent tepid fantasy production.
- Cincinnati (versus Jacksonville): Another big favorite this weekend are the Cincinnati Bengals. At home, the Bengals are currently 12-point favorites against the Jaguars and they are also projected to score nearly 4 touchdowns, all of which bodes well for Giovani Bernard on Sunday. [*When this article went live, Bernard had not yet practiced--if he is still hobbled on Friday, Jeremy Hill should shoot to the top of your DFS radar*]
- San Francisco (versus St. Louis): The 49'ers have scored 3 rushing touchdowns through 7 games, which is surprising given that the Niners are generally seen as a run-first team. This weekend, they host the Rams, who are yielding 4.7 yards per carry and 144.3 yards per game on the ground to opponents; furthermore, the oddsmakers project this one as a blowout with the Niners scoring nearly 4 touchdowns, which means that Frank Gore and Carlos Hyde should finally garner some fantasy goodness on Sunday.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Seattle (versus Oakland): The Seahawks are in dire need of a game where they can recapture some of the magic they displayed on opening night a few months ago against the Packers. Their defense has a dream matchup against the winless Oakland Raiders, who are averaging 15 points per game on the season; Vegas thinks that 15 is probably too much for this game in the not-so-friendly confines of CenturyLink Field in Seattle.
- Cincinnati (versus Jacksonville): The Jaguars, through their first 8 games, have given up 33 sacks to opposing defenses and lead the league in interceptions (13). Last week, Blake Bortles was kind to the Dolphins' defense throwing 2 pick-sixes, which helped the Miami defense accrue 28 fantasy points across the industry. The Bengals' defense has been less than stellar this year, but they become a viable option with the Jags' impending arrival.
- Kansas City (versus NY Jets): The Chiefs are a very solid, yet underrated defense; they give up the lowest number of yards per game through the air (195.7) and they have not given up a rushing touchdown all season. Against the Jets in Arrowhead this weekend, Vegas projects a 26-15 victory by the Chiefs, which should merit your attention when you construct your rosters.
TWO STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- Seattle (versus Oakland): The Seahawks are not only the biggest favorite on the board this week, they are also projected to score more points than the Denver Broncos. With some of the magnificent fantasy weeks that Russell Wilson has displayed this season, he could be in store for another dandy against this dreadful Oakland Raiders defense.
- Cincinnati (versus Jacksonville): The Jaguars had a bottom 5 defense entering Week #7 when they lost star LB Paul Posluszny for the season to a torn pectoral muscle; we did not get to see just how bad they would become in his absence last week because of the multiple defensive touchdowns that were scored against them, which meant that Miami was content to run clock for much of the game. This week, the Bengals could challenge that depleted Jaguars' secondary and will likely succeed doing so; Vegas agrees with their 28-point projection for the boys in orange and black.
- Indianapolis (versus NY Giants): When the starting QB of an NFL team averages 43 passing attempts per game, that passing offense should always be in your sights. With a projected 27-point team total and Donte Moncrief impressing in his coming out party last week, Andrew Luck and the Colts' passing game could be in store for a big fantasy day.
- New England (versus Denver): In the game of the week, the Patriots will host the Broncos at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, MA. The oddsmakers have placed a 55-point total on this game and the line is close, meaning that these 2 offenses could trade scores all afternoon. Over the past 4 weekends, these teams have scored 309 points between them, which is good enough for almost 39 points per game during that span; if they come anywhere close to that, Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski will surely have a major role in scoring those points.
- Cleveland (versus Tampa Bay): Tampa Bay is 30th in the NFL against the pass, allowing 286 yards per game to opponents. The Browns, not traditionally a passing juggernaut, could be in store for a productive day against this secondary that has allowed 16 receiving touchdowns on the season. On a weekend where everybody will be looking to load up on players from Denver/New England, you might be wise to consider Brian Hoyer and Andrew Hawkins for your GPP rosters, particularly when they will be low-owned and Vegas thinks this Browns team will score 26 points.
RUNNING GAME
- Denver (versus New England): As has been said elsewhere in this column, any time a team is projected to score nearly 30 points, all facets of that offense are in play. In this instance, Ronnie Hillman has looked great in his relief of the injured Montee Ball and, last week, even Juwan Thompson got involved in the Broncos' ground game with a few touchdowns of his own; if the salary is fair, Hillman could represent a nice play for your DFS rosters this weekend.
- Kansas City (versus NY Jets): The Jets' defensive front has a few chinks in the armor they displayed early in the season; after holding opposing running backs to less than 50 yards through their first four games, the Jets allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushers and subsequently gave up 114 all-purpose yards and 2 TD's to Shane Vereen in Week #7. They returned to form against the Bills' bevy of 3rd-string RB's last week, but they get Jamaal Charles this week in a game where the Chiefs are slated to score 26 points and win by 10+ points. Add in the fact that the Jets have been poor against pass-catching RB's this season and Charles looks to be solid play on Sunday.
TEAM DEFENSE
- San Francisco (versus St. Louis): The 49'ers are rested off their bye week and play host to a Rams team that was just embarrassed by the Chiefs in Arrowhead last week. With Brian Quick now on the injured reserve list with a dislocated shoulder, the Rams' offensive options are limited, at best, and downright poor, at worst. Vegas is projecting the Rams to score about 16 points in this game, which means that the Niners defense is in a good spot to accumulate some nice fantasy production.
ONE STAR PLAYS
PASSING GAME
- San Francisco (versus St. Louis): As a 10+ point favorite slated to score nearly 4 touchdowns, the Niners will likely do much of their damage from the ground; however, to expect San Francisco to exclusively run the ball is unrealistic. Given the number of points that Vegas projects for this team, Colin Kaeparnick and his crew of possession receivers should be viable options, particularly if they are fairly priced.
- Kansas City (versus NY Jets): The Kansas City Chiefs' passing game is far from stellar, but they have a prime matchup against a Jets' secondary that has given up a league-leading 22 passing touchdowns while managing a league-worst sole interception on the year. Dwayne Bowe will be on very few DFS rosters, but he, along with Travis Kelce, could get a little fantasy love against this Jets' defense, particularly in light of the 26 points that they are projected to score.
- Dallas (versus Arizona): The sky is falling! The sky is falling! ...cries from Dallas are everywhere, but Vegas is not buying into the demise of the Cowboys just yet--they see the Cowboys as 4-point favorites when they host the Cardinals this weekend. There are still questions surrounding Tony Romo's availability for this game, but there is no doubt that the Cardinals' weakness is defending the pass; if Dallas falls behind or if DeMarco Murray cannot get it done against the 3rd best rush defense, the Cowboys may have no choice but to throw the ball.
- St. Louis (versus San Francisco): Despite what the odds are telling us, this is a difficult leap to make. While the Rams are projected to score nearly 17 points, it is difficult to envision who will do it, now that Brian Quick is out for the season. Kenny Britt and Tavon Austin are the next-in-line receivers in this offense, but San Francisco's secondary is solid, which does not bode well for the Rams. Tough call.
- Jacksonville (versus Cincinnati): With Jacksonville slated to be playing from behind all afternoon, there could be some fantasy goodness for the Jags' passing game; Blake Bortles looks like anything but an NFL quarterback, but his salary is depressed which means that he does not have to do a whole lot to reach value in daily games. If the Jags fall behind early, it could be another 35-40 pass attempt day for Bortles, which means that he, Allen Robinson, and Cecil Shorts could all be in play.
- NY Jets (versus Kansas City): Another unattractive passing game to consider, based on Vegas odds, is the NY Jets. Last week, Rex Ryan finally pulled the plug on Geno Smith and gave Michael Vick an opportunity to do something with this Jets offense; he was not that much better than Smith, but did manage to run for nearly 70 yards, which is something we rarely saw with Smith. This week, after getting additional time with the starters and another week of playbook experience for Percy Harvin, the Jets' passing game could be a bit more in sync with one another. They will admittedly need to be ready because this matchup is far from optimal, but the Vegas odds would suggest that the Jets will be playing from behind, which would mandate a heavy dose of Vick, Decker, and Harvin.
- Oakland (versus Seattle): Rostering any player from Oakland this weekend is a risky proposition, but they will make for decent GPP plays because they will be extremely low-owned across every daily site. Derek Carr threw the ball 54 times last week, as the Raiders relentlessly tried to keep pace with the Browns; any time a quarterback throws the football 40+ times, he immediately becomes a daily option, simply because if just 1 or 2 of those passes finds an open receiver, it could result in a decent fantasy day. Given that Oakland will likely fall behind early in this one, as evidenced by the 16-point line, Carr and company could become cheap GPP plays.
RUNNING GAME
- Indianapolis (versus NY Giants): The Colts like to throw the ball often, but they still have to balance their attack to some degree by feeding Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw from time to time. With a projected score of 27 points, it is plausible to think that one of those guys will be the beneficiary of redzone opportunities. Ensure that you check Richardson's health status (hamstring) closer to the weekend to get a feel if he will miss another game; if he does, Bradshaw's value takes a nice bump up.
- Dallas (versus Arizona): Despite the disappointing loss, DeMarco Murray now has 8 consecutive 100-yard rushing games and is on pace to finish the year with 2,600 all-purpose yards. Neither the opponent, nor the gamescript has kept Murray from handling the ball 20+ times every game; that, alone, makes Murray an option this weekend against the Cardinals.
- Cleveland (versus Tampa Bay): Ben Tate has finished with back-to-back clunkers in plus matchups, but he gets another opportunity this weekend against the Bucs, who will travel to Cleveland as 7-point underdogs to the Browns. The Buccaneers are dead-last in the NFL in defending the rush, according to ProFootballFocus, which means that Tate should get one more chance to shine.
TEAM DEFENSE
- Cleveland (versus Tampa Bay): Tampa Bay is dead-last in the NFL in total offensive yards per game, 30th in time of possession, 27th in total points per game, and 26th in turnover ratio. All of those things, in conjunction with the Vegas line on the game, make the Cleveland Browns a realistic defensive option entering Week #9.