Last week was a doozy with some wild fantasy results. This week we have six teams on byes, which has created some intriguing price structures and made wading through daily fantasy lineups a bit more treacherous.
Here are some thoughts on daily fantasy football plays and fades.
Draft Kings
Stack of the Week
Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos - $9,800
Wes Welker, WR, Denver Broncos - $3,300
Once again, one half of the stack of the week worked out.
It was a rout in New England, but quarterback Peyton Manning did just fine in the windy conditions. Unfortunately, he wasn't a particularly good value despite his output thanks to that price tag.
Quarterback Plays
Nick Foles, QB, Philadelphia Eagles - $7,700
Another unfortunate injury sunk a quality quarterback option early this week.
Nick Foles was on his way to a great day after opening up the scoring with a 59-yard touchdown bomb to receiver Jeremy Maclin.
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins - $6,300
Last week was a bit of a dud for Ryan Tannehill in a matchup that seemed like a good one. After all, the Jacksonville Jaguars stink, right?
That isn’t the case defensively, at least not in recent weeks. The Jaguars have been among the stingiest defenses when it comes to giving up fantasy points all around, and quarterback has been a particular bane for fantasy owners facing them. Of course, game flow plays a big part—you can’t score fantasy points when your own defense is scoring on pick-sixes—but Jacksonville’s defensive line has been nightmarish for opposing quarterbacks.
The good news for Tannehill is he faces the San Diego Chargers this week, a team that has been far more generous to his lot in recent weeks. That has been the case, in part, because of injuries in the secondary. This week rookie sensation Jason Verrett is out of commission while Brandon Flowers is just now coming back from a concussion.
Tannehill isn’t a slam dunk, but he is priced well for a guy who could feasibly put up 250 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns to go along with 50 rushing yards.
Alex Smith, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - $5,700
What do you get when an unstoppable force meets and immovable object?
We’ll find out this weekend when Alex Smith faces the New York Jets. The Chiefs quarterback seems to be allergic to touchdowns while the Jets defense has allowed a league-leading 22 touchdown passes.
He might be a bit too risky to start in the Millionaire Matchmaker—at least if you are only throwing in one or two lineups–but Smith is so cheap that he is certainly worth giving a shot in some of your lineups. His rushing upside is a bonus in a great matchup the Chiefs are expected to win handily.
Running Back Plays
Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks - $6,100
The Seattle Seahawks are currently 15.5-point favorites. You read that right.
Of course, that shouldn’t be surprising considering they are playing the woeful Oakland Raiders up at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. Even if the Raiders cover—a strong possibility with that money line—the Seahawks are likely to be up big for a good chunk of the game.
That alone makes Marshawn Lynch a palatable option. A big lead means more rushing attempts, and Lynch is still the lead back in Seattle last time we checked. More importantly, however, is the fact Lynch is still a quality back and the Raiders do not sport a particularly good rush defense.
True, we saw automatically playing a running back against that defense was not a surefire way to win last week when Ben Tate barely cracked double digits at home. But Tate and the Browns are not Lynch and the Seahawks.
Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals - $4,000
This is such an obvious option at this point that it’s almost better to fade Jeremy Hill because of likely ownership percentage.
Cincinnati Bengals running back Giovani Bernard has officially been ruled out for this weekend’s tilt against the Jacksonville Jaguars. That followed a week of speculation after Bernard injured his hip last week and didn’t participate in the ensuing practices.
Hill now has the backfield all to himself, and a tantalizing matchup, it would seem. The Jaguars have been pretty good on defense in recent weeks, however, which puts a bit of a wet blanket on this situation.
Still, Hill’s talent and opportunity cannot be ignored here. He will likely see 20-plus touches, including some catches out of the backfield—he has proven to be more than capable in the passing game, as it turns out, catching all but two targets thus far this season. Add to that the fact Cincinnati is favored by nearly two touchdowns and you have a recipe for running back success.
Bobby Rainey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - $4,400
Here is another guy who is going to greatly benefit from the starter’s absence, and he might be owned far less.
Bobby Rainey will get another crack at the starting gig—at least it looks that way with Doug Martin listed as doubtful—and he is teeing up the Cleveland Browns.
The last time Rainey was a popular daily play was a Thursday night matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, a game where he threatened to put up negative fantasy points after a pair of fumbles. The Buccaneers saved fantasy owners in PPR formats during garbage time by throwing the ball to him a few times, but it was an overall disappointment.
Perhaps the memory of that burn will still linger in some daily fantasy minds this week, making Rainey a less-owned version of Hill with a better matchup.
There is also a little matter of rookie Charles Sims, who was not active the last time around due to an injury. He is receiving plenty of hype, which might draw owners to him given his price tag. Rumors are swirling that he might get 10-plus touches, but it’s difficult to believe head coach Lovie Smith will give a rookie in his first real NFL action a massive workload. Then again, Rainey could fumble on the game’s first play and ruin lineups everywhere.
Alfred Morris, Washington - $3,900
Pricing for Alfred Morris must have been set prior to the Monday Night Football game, otherwise he wouldn’t be nearly this cheap.
Granted, the Minnesota Vikings have been pretty good defensively in recent weeks, so Morris isn’t just going to waltz into TCF Bank Stadium and score 30 fantasy points.
Or is he?
Well, probably not, but he still looks like a nice value at this price. Washington is somehow favored in this road game despite Minnesota’s consecutive victories, but it’s just a one-point line with an over-under set at 44. That’s not a ton of projected points, but it’s three touchdowns for each team if Vegas nails it on the head.
More importantly, Morris looks like he is back to his productive self after a strong game against a previously stout Dallas Cowboys defense last week. Quarterback Robert Griffin III will also be back, which should only help Morris if the past is any indication.
Wide Receiver Plays
Jeremy Maclin, Philadelphia Eagles - $7,600
This might be a case of chasing points to a certain extent, but there is good reason to believe Jeremy Maclin will follow up his fantastic Week 8 effort in Arizona with another great one in Houston this week.
As previously mentioned, the Texans have been among the most generous defenses to opposing wide receivers this season, something that hasn’t improved much in recent weeks.
Andre Johnson, Houston Texans - $5,500
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans - $5,400
Houston has allowed a ton of fantasy points to wide receivers. You know which team has allowed more?
The Philadelphia Eagles, at least on a per-game basis.
That is good news for Andre Johnson and DeAndre Hopkins, who are due for a big game. Of course, “being due” isn’t exactly good rationale for putting them into daily fantasy lineups, now, is it?
Houston and Philadelphia are expected to wage a fairly high scoring affair with the over-under set at 48.5. The game could easily go over based on how the two passing defenses have played, not to mention the fact Houston may be missing key defenders Brian Cushing and Jadeveon Clowney. More scoring for the Eagles means more scoring for the Texans, at least if they are going to keep pace.
Now, which one of these receivers you should choose is an interesting question. Similarly priced, they seem to have a similar floor and ceiling. Johnson is a safer bet, having been targeted 22 more times than Hopkins. The latter has made bigger plays this season, however, including a 76-yard touchdown in Week 1. Hopkins has scored three touchdowns to one for Johnson, who has had trouble scoring his entire career it seems. All that to say Johnson is your cash game huckleberry while Hopkins is a better play in GPP tournaments.
The Texans-Eagles game has plenty of tantalizing options this week, as it turns out
Terrance Williams, Dallas Cowboys - $4,900
As we have seen all season long, wide receivers are going to score oodles of fantasy points against the Arizona Cardinals. This is a bit amusing considering they have highly paid cornerback Patrick Peterson and highly touted second-year defensive back Tyrann Mathieu manning the boundaries.
This week, the Dallas Cowboys receivers set their sights on a big fantasy day. While Dez Bryant is a nice choice, his $8,200 price tag might be too much for a budget-conscious daily player. That doesn't mean you should fade Bryant—by all means put him in if you have the cash—but his partner in crime might be a much better bargain.
Terrance Williams finally fell off the touchdown wagon last week, unable to get into the end zone despite a juicy matchup against the Washington defense. The whole Cowboys offense looked out of sync and horribly prepared for a vicious blitzing attack on Washington's part. It didn't help that Brandon Weeden was Dallas' quarterback for much of the second half, though he did manage to move the ball well.
Arizona's defense will likely try to shut Bryant and Dallas running back DeMarco Murray down, which should leave Williams plenty of space to operate. He has scored a ton of fantasy points on deep balls this season, and he could hit another long one against the Cardinals this week.
Of course, all of this is moot if quarterback Tony Romo is out this weekend. He is iffy with that back injury, though it's difficult to believe he will sit after coming back into the game last week.
Tight End Plays
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs - $4,100
The New York Jets are a hot mess this season. That includes the defense, which has been particularly brutal in the passing game. Enter Travis Kelce, a tight end manufactured from a similar mold as Rob Gronkowski.
Kelce has proven to be the playmaker the Chiefs drafted in 2013 this season, leading the league at his position in yards after catch. Part of that has been the play-calling, of course, but this is a guy who can run away from linebackers and safeties alike.
A soft pass defense hopefully means a nice game is in store for the passing game in general.
Jared Cook, St. Louis Rams - $3,000
The Rams are reeling right now, and things went from bad to worse on offense when they lost emergent receiver Brian Quick to injury for the year. They will likely look to fill that void with Stedman Bailey—who looked like he might be the No. 1 guy before his suspension—and Tavon Austin, who needs to start paying off as a first-round pick. Another guy who might shoulder some of Quick’s load is tight end Jared Cook, who is almost a hybrid player at his size and speed.
Cook has been a tease throughout his career, so expecting a big game out of him on any given Sunday is a sucker’s bet. At his current price, however, it’s difficult not to take a hard look at him to balance out any expensive players you might have in your lineup. More importantly, Cook saw 11 targets against the San Francisco 49ers earlier this season, a number he could approach on Sunday. With a little luck, he might get above 70 yards again and into the end zone this time.
As minimum salary guys go, Cook might be a nice surprise at tight end.
Quarterback Fades
Tom Brady, New England Patriots - $8,400
He burned anyone who might have faded him last week—yours truly included—but, darn it all, Tom Brady is worth fading again this week.
For starters, Brady is likely in a similar situation to Russell Wilson from a week ago, pricing and all. Wilson was just coming off his incredible Week 7, and he was facing a seemingly soft defense in Carolina. We all saw how that turned out.
Of course, that is just a one-game sample size for a different player—using that as your only rationale for fading Brady would amount to superstition. There is more to it than that, however.
The Denver Broncos have
Moreover, the Patriots might actually try to slow the game down offensively, like many teams have done in an attempt to keep the ball out of Peyton Manning’s hands.
Yes, tight end Rob Gronkowski is all the way back from injury, looking like the T-1000 in full destruction mode.
Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals - $6,300
At that price point with receiver A.J. Green likely coming back, Andy Dalton seems like the bargain of the week. Don’t fall into that trap.
Dalton faces a Jaguars defense that has previously been highlighted as pennywise when it comes to giving up fantasy points to quarterbacks. In fact, they have given up the fewest points per game to the position over the past three weeks and the fourth-fewest over the past five. Of course, it helps that they faced Brian Hoyer and Charlie Whitehurst in that latter span, but Philip Rivers, Ryan Tannehill and Ben Roethlisberger were also in that bunch.
Dalton will get his binky back to go along with Mohamed Sanu, who has broken out for the Bengals with or without Green in the lineup. Other than that, the Bengals have little to offer in terms of weaponry for Dalton, who is apt to turn around and hand the ball off to Jeremy Hill 20-plus times this weekend.
Running Back Fades
Arian Foster, Houston Texans - $9,900
As roster anchors go, you can scarcely go wrong with a guy like Arian Foster. But can you afford it this week at that price?
The matchup is decent, and Foster seems to be matchup-proof this season. Fading Foster doesn’t mean he will lay an egg, after all. But the Eagles have been generous enough in the passing game that opposing running backs haven’t scored a heap of fantasy points against them.
Wide Receiver Fades
Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers - $5,500
It has been quite the start to his NFL career for Martavis Bryant, who has scored three touchdowns in his first two games for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Anyone who might have started him in the past couple of weeks has been delighted at his output. As Han Solo would say, however, don’t get cocky.
The cat is out of the bag, so to speak, and opposing defenses will be better prepared for the speedy rookie. As tantalizing as the 6’4” receiver with 4.42 speed is, he is still the No. 3 receiver on his team. More importantly, what does the matchup say?
The Baltimore Ravens are no defensive slouches. They held Antonio Brown and the rest of that wide receiver corps to just 144 yards and zero touchdowns in their last meeting despite the fact Pittsburgh was playing from well behind for much of the game.
In fairness, that was a sloppy Thursday night tilt back when the Steelers looked like a mess. Pittsburgh has cleaned things up—in part, offensively, thanks to Bryant’s emergence—but that doesn’t mean the Ravens won’t play them tough.
Andre Holmes, Oakland Raiders - $4,800
Like a back door cover, Andre Holmes saved his fantasy day with a late touchdown in garbage time last week. Even with a nice fantasy output in two of his past three games, Holmes is meagerly priced this week. What gives?
The Seattle Seahawks, that’s what—that defense doesn’t give, it takes. Well not as much as last season, but it is still a poor matchup for opposing wide receivers. We looked at just how many great receivers the Seahawks have faced this season when fading Kelvin Benjamin last week, and Seattle has still given up just three touchdowns to the position this season.
Tight End Fades
Tim Wright, TE, New England Patriots - $4,500
He has enjoyed end zone success this season, but Tim Wright has been the beneficiary of goal-line play action more than anything this season. He got more than that last week, catching six passes for 71 yards, but that touchdown came after teammate Rob Gronkowski was tackled just shy of the goal line. In fact, all but one of Wright’s touchdowns have come from inside the five-yard line.
He might be a bigger part of the offense nowadays than he was earlier in the season, but there are too many safer options near or below Wright’s price point to risk putting him in your lineups.
FanDuel
Stack of the Week
Alex Smith, QB, Kansas City Chiefs - $7,100
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs - $5,400
The New York Jets are too porous in pass defense to avoid exploiting here.
Kelce makes for a quality choice on any daily site it seems, a cheap option with a ton of upside and a nice floor. Smith is a bit more expensive here relative to his price at Draft Kings, but he still is a great value compared to his counterparts.
