This weekly article will focus on Fanduel.com cash games where being above-average is the phrase that pays. With tournaments and low-probability setups, a unique lineup and making bold decisions make for a quality entry. With cash games, the mantra shifts to ‘avoiding the suck’ as the annual David Dodds strategy article outlines. In a 100-player Double-Up game, finishing No.1 or No.45 pays the same. Cash games like this are the mutual funds of daily fantasy games: grind week by week and end the season with a hearty profit, minimizing the risk of losing a bankroll along the way. At a minimum, playing cash games round out a high-variance daily player’s portfolio.
Here are some general player selection guidelines:
HIGH-OWNERSHIP PLAYERS
In the first half of the 2014 NFL season, ownership data was available on FanDuel when Thursday Night Football lineups locked. Now, that is not the case. Fortunately, the high-ownership players aligned with the value plays according to my projection system. Playing highly owned commodities in head-to-head, Double-ups, and 50/50s insulates the scoring floor in relation to other teams to surpass the money line.
HIGH-VOLUME PLAYERS
A rogue long touchdown or goal line carry can propel a tournament player to victory on Monday Night Football, going from a donated entry fee to a big pay day. In the cash games arena, an insulated floor of expected targets, carries, and passes keeps daily players in the hunt by Sunday and Monday night. While the top overall score in the group is unlikely, being above the cash out line is a positive expected value scenario.
BEST MATCHUPS
In addition to high-ownership and high-volume opportunities, the best cash game plays center around the ideal matchups of the week. That is a two-fold proposition as the Vegas lines (point spread and over/under) give an indication of likely game flow and fantasy points allowed can turn typical middling options into top value plays. When combining high-ownership, high-volume, and positive matchups, the optimal plays for the week reveal themselves.
Overall Philosophy
I combine many online projections, including those from Footballguys.com as a starting point to create a value board at each position. Then I analyze matchup data in terms efficiency allowed, strengths and weaknesses of the opposing defense, and regression factors.
QUARTERBACKS
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Colin Kaepernick (7800) and Russell Wilson (8600) are the gold standards this week. Both face rather toothless defenses in terms of pass rush and coverage skills in St.Louis and Oakland respectively. In efficiency per pass attempt, they have the fifth and sixth-best matchup in the NFL. They both rival Peyton Manning in terms of historical comparable ceilings for the week (courtesy of RotoViz) to boot. Both should be in at least 35-40% of lineups for the daily grinders this week with Kaepernick close to the 50% mark.
Alternates
There is a substantial drop-off from Kaepernick and Wilson to the 'best of the rest'. Those two possess some risk of game script limiting their volume with the game odds pointing to a comfortable victory. The next tier includes pricier options of Peyton Manning (10000), Tom Brady (9000) in their head-to-head matchup and Andrew Luck (10100). Brady and Luck face stiff pass rushing units, while Brady also has the toughest test from a pass coverage and efficiency allowed perspective of the top-five bargains on a per-point basis on FanDuel this week. Weather could also be a factor, which warrants tracking until lineups lock. Cam Newton also deserves being mentioned with the best combination of matchup strength on a per-attempt basis and weak Saints pass rush and coverage grades. Newton is the same price as Colin Kaepernick this week at 7800. Manning is a 10-15% ownership share player this week after Kaepernick and Wilson, with Brady and Luck be potential plays if spreading risk across up to five signal-callers for Week 9.
RUNNING BACKS
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Mark Ingram (6100) is the running back in flashing green lights this week. Of the top-10 values at the position by a projection standpoint, Ingram has the third-best run-blocking rating for his offensive line (courtesy of profootballfocus.com) and has the top efficiency matchup against the Carolina Panthers. With Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas out of the lineup, it is full-steam ahead with Ingram as one of the few auto-plays this week. His value score dwarfs all over running backs and warrants plugging into 50-60% of lineups this week prior to the Thursday night lock. Without him in the mix, Sunday lineups are that much more muddy at running back with a clogged second-tier.
Alternates
Arian Foster (9400), Jamaal Charles (9000), Andre Ellington (7700), and Ronnie Hillman (7200) form the second tier of best bang for the buck running back options in Week 9. Jamaal Charles is the most polarizing from a matchup perspective as the Chiefs are solid favorites over the Michael Vick-led Jets, however, the matchup data is rough for the Chiefs running game. Of the top-10 projection values this week at running back, Charles has the lowest run-blocking rating of the bunch, is facing the highest-rated run defense, and has the worst efficiency matchup on a per-carry basis in the entire NFL. I am breaking ties against Charles in lineups this week. Arian Foster is slightly better with average offensive line play in front of him, but stingy run defense from an efficiency standpoint and PFF rating perspective against the Eagles. Foster has a preferred floor and ceiling to Charles, giving him the nod in a head-to-head comparison. Andre Ellington is a highlight in this tier with a good matchup against the Cowboys. The fact that Arizona's offensive line has struggled is minimized due to Ellington's outside the tackles game and high-floor in the passing game. Ronnie Hillman has average matchup metrics across the board and is a solid play all around. Going with a cheaper running back group of Ingram and Ellington or Hillman allows for a top quarterback, receiver, or tight end much easier.
*Late Addition* Jeremy Hill is a wildcard as Giovani Bernard is looking doubtful to play against Jacksonville, at a minimum in his usual lead role. Hill has a paltry 5200 cap hit and the Jaguars are an average-at-best defense against running backs. Hill's salary, when paired with Mark Ingram in early-week lineups, or Ellington or Hillman for the weekend, allows flexibility at other positions for another top-shelf play.
Wide Receivers
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Kelvin Benjamin (7000) and Antonio Brown (9000) are the preferred plays this week according to the value formula. Benjamin has an enviable matchup against the Saints from a PFF rating standpoint and a fantasy efficiency allowed point of view. Benjamin, along with Ingram, is the reason to front load lineups ahead of the Thursday night lock in Week 9. Brown is the high-salary play. His target floor is very high and the Ravens are an average-efficiency defense for opposing wide receivers. Saving money at running back or quarterback this week allows for Brown in lineups.
Alternates
Only five receivers total stick out as preferred plays, making this a grab-bag of options. I would not hesitate to rotate up to 10 receivers through lineups if wanting to mitigate risk. Outside of Benjamin and Brown, both worthy to be in at least 40% of lineups, Anquan Boldin, Miles Austin, and Brandin Cooks finish out the top-five. All three have ideal efficiency matchups against poor coverage units. Miles Austin is the 'if running out of money at WR3' option at a thrifty 4800, but with a decent shot to hit 10+ points. Anquan Boldin has a mere one touchdown on 39 receptions this season and gets the underwhelming Rams secondary. A Kaepernick-Boldin stack in tournaments is a worthy play. In cash games, Boldin's 6300 salary allows for Benjamin and Brown as WR1/2 in lineups easily. Brandin Cooks, 6400, is coming off his career-high 94 yards against the Packers. Through seven games, Cooks had at least six targets in all but one of them.
TIGHT ENDS
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Larry Donnell is the preferred option for Week 9 with a top-five efficiency matchup (Colts), an average coverage unit against him, and a bargain basement 5400 salary. Donnell possesses the highest historical comparable ceiling and floor at the position, plus going against the Colts likely means the Giants will need to keep the pedal on the floor on offense.
Alternates
Travis Kelce does not possess the usage insulation of Donnell, but comes in as the second-best value of the week at tight end. The Jets are horrific as a coverage unit and allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per target to tight ends. Kelce is worthy of lineup shares this week, but only to diversify from Donnell at teh same price point. Rob Gronkowski is the only other tight end worthy of consideration in Week 9, but another tier down from Kelce. The Broncos are stingy in coverage and against tight ends. Crafting a bevy of lineups this week, a mix 55% Donnell, 30% Kelce, and 15% Gronkowski is a solid starting point.
KICKERS
Brandon McManus has a lower floor each week compared to most other kickers (can get extra point after extra point thanks to Peyton Manning), but is consistently an inexpensive option. A Patriots defense that can scheme it up in field goal range could be a positive for McManus this week compared to typical ones. Steven Hauschka and Cairo Santos are the other two above-baseline recommendations, at 4800 and 5000 respectively. Both are projected to win comfortably by Vegas odds. Add in Adam Vinatieri and Phil Dawson at 5100 apiece and there is a solid five-kicker rotation to churn through various lineups. McManus and Santos are the default options when finishing out lineups with little cash; Hauschka, Vinatieri, and Dawson if a few extra hundred are under the couch cushions when the rest of the lineup is complete. Even with a strong play at kicker, I divest among at least three or four options throughout lineups in a week with the top option at no more than 30% or so of usage.
DEFENSES
Three plays stick out on defense this week. Seattle, Kansas City, and Cincinnati all have their selling points with ideal opponents and sporting a home game. The Chiefs are the cheapest of the three at 5300 and is there a juicier quarterback to face for fantasy than Michael Vick? The Chiefs also have the highest-rated pass rushing unit of the three defensive options. The Seahawks have a golden opportunity to right the ship against Oakland, while the Bengals get the automatically-in-play matchup with Jacksonville. If running out of money, the Browns are the best bargain play at 4800 against Tampa Bay at home.
Top Roster: By the numbers
- Colin Kaepernick
- Mark Ingram
- Arian Foster
- Kelvin Benjamin
- Antonio Brown
- Miles Austin
- Larry Donnell
- Steven Hauschka
- Chiefs
