Week 8 was a solid (67%) week with no real stars other than the Chiefs defense. The Chiefs 7 sacks and a defensive touchdown sure were nice though. We pushed our season long success farther above 60% with a little bit of cushion heading into two of the biggest bye weeks of the year. Let's jump straight into Week 9. The Value Play at each position is based off of the projections of David Dodds, while the Bargain Buy is my personal recommendation. You don't want a roster full of these guys, but using 1-2 of them could help you win your GPP.
Quarterback
Value Play
Alex Smith ($5700) vs. New York Jets- Smith's fantasy production has not been good at all lately, which is why you're getting him for such a cheap price. Luckily for him he gets to face a Jets secondary that didn't even know who their starting corners were going to be as of Friday afternoon. Smith won't put up huge numbers, but between his rushing production and his dump offs in the flats, he should have a relatively safe floor, with upside provided by his opponent.
Bargain Buy
Brian Hoyer ($5300) vs. Tampa Bay- If Brian Hoyer is ever going to bounce back, this would be the week. Tampa bay has given up over 286 yards per game through the air and has surrendered 16 touchdowns while picking off only 4 passes. Hoyer was decent against the Raiders in Week 8 and this is an even more favorable match up. I expect the Browns to roll the Bucs, with Hoyer getting plenty of opportunities to put the ball in the end zone.
Running Back
Value Play
Jeremy Hill ($4000) vs. Jacksonville- Hill is going to be on everyone's list this week so it shouldn't be a surprise he's on both of mine. The Jaguars have actually been better than you'd expect against the run but they have little chance against the Bengals offense without star linebacker Paul Posluszny. Hill has been surprisingly efficient in the passing game, averaging more than 10 yards per reception. He should see more targets in Week 9, which will stabilize his floor.
Bargain Buy
Andre Williams ($3500) vs. Indianapolis- With Rashad Jennings missing another week Williams gets to face a Colts defense that was just destroyed by the Steelers. While the Colts haven't given up gaudy gross numbers in the run game, they are giving up 4.4 yards per carry and the Giants are fresh off a bye week. Williams' price is just too low with what could be a very high ceiling.
Wide Receiver
Value Play
Kenny Britt ($3100) vs. San Francisco- You know the drill on Kenny Britt. All kinds of potential and absolutely no consistency. With Brian Quick out for the year, Britt has an excellent opportunity to be the Rams WR1. Outside of the Seattle game Britt has actually been respectable since Week 3, and figures to see a minimum of 6 targets. The Rams should be chasing the scoreboard, unlike the last time these two teams met. There's plenty of upside here, but a very low floor.
Bargain Buy
Michael Floyd ($3800) vs. Dallas- Speaking of low floors, Michael Floyd showed just how low his was last year. Now, Bruce Arians has made it pretty clear they won't be forcing the ball to anyone...but they are trying to get the ball to the open man. After his performance last week you have to expect the Cowboys to have a keen eye on Larry Fitzgerald, which will give Floyd the chance to shine. You simply can't pass on a player of this caliber at $3800.
Tight End
Value Play
Jermaine Gresham ($3000) vs. Jacksonville- Gresham is not a flashy player by any means but his high target total (27 over the last 4 weeks) makes him useful on DraftKings especially. This week he gets a Jacksonville defense minus their best linebacker. Perhaps more importantly, Giovani Bernard is out which means more short targets for someone. Gresham should be a solid bet to meet value at this price and a touchdown would make him a steal.
Bargain Buy
Austin Seferian-Jenkins ($3400) vs. Cleveland- The Tampa Bay rookie scored his first touchdown of the season in Week 7 but is still priced extremely low. He's a very talented player that is slowing acclimating himself to the NFL. I like his chances to see more targets in the coming weeks as he continues to improve and Vincent Jackson works his way out of favor in Tampa Bay.
Defense
Cleveland Browns ($2900) vs. Tampa Bay- The Browns defense isn't spectacular, but they showed last week that they can get after a bad offense. The Buccaneers offer the perfect encore to their Week 8 performance. Mike Glennon will be running for his life, and probably making poor decisions in the process.
