You guys have a ton of articles.
This statement about Footballguys is a blessing but it can feel like a curse. Our staff delivers insights that change seasons for the better yet realistically, no fantasy owner has the time to read everything we publish in a week.
If this describes you, let me be your scout. Here are five insights from Footballguys articles that I find compelling for the weekend ahead. I'll share what should help you this week, touch on the long-term outlook, and sometimes offer a counterargument.
Since it's Week 1, I'm going to begin this series with some need-to-knows as a Footballguys subscriber.
1. Footballguys' Roundtable: LeSean McCoy
Until we acquire meaningful data to actually look at in-season trends, there's usually a lot of noisy information out there. Our weekly Roundtable provides a fair bit of observation, fantasy experience, and occasional debate that hopefully keeps everyone sharp.
This week, I asked the panel to supply both sides of the LeSean McCoy argument, share where they actually stand at the end, and deliver actionable fantasy advice. Here's how it unfolded...
Parsons: LeSean McCoy is a top-flight talent and moves to the friendly confines of an Andy Reid offense. Even with limited time with the team, McCoy was highly involved in Week 1 and effective.
On the downside, Damien Williams took much of the passing game work, which would be a limiting element to McCoy's upside. I side on McCoy taking over as the clear preferred back in terms of snaps and total touches within the next week or two.
Williams will spell McCoy and probably have more catches. However, there is plenty of juice in the Chiefs offense to support McCoy in the RB10-18 range and Williams as a flex option.
Tremblay: The argument for McCoy is that whoever lines up in the Chiefs' backfield is going to score a lot of fantasy points, and McCoy may be the best running back they've got. He had significantly more success than Damien Williams in Week 1 (8.1 yards per rush compared to 2.0, and 12.0 yards per target compared to 6.5). Andy Reid will go with the hot hand, and if you believe that McCoy is a better running back than Williams, you can expect him to settle in as a top-20 fantasy RB.
The argument against McCoy is age. He was largely ineffective in Buffalo last year, and 31-year-old running backs seldom find rejuvenation in the NFL. He looked good in Week 1 on a small sample of runs, but as the wear and tear accumulate over multiple games, he'll remain behind Damien Williams in the rotation.
It's why I'm selling McCoy. Damien Williams had a rough Week 1, but he'll bounce back, and I don't think McCoy will get enough touches in Kansas City to be a consistent fantasy starter.
Grant: McCoy is back with Andy Reid and hungry to show he can still play. The Chiefs were not completely sold on Damien Williams anyway, and his stock was falling at the end of the summer. McCoy won't get 25 touches a game, but in a KC offense that looks like it could average 35 points per week again this season, there will be plenty of action to go around.
In Buffalo, he was the starter and people were still looking at him as an RB3 / Flex. Why did that change when he went to a team with a clear starting running back in Williams and a young guy like Darwin Thompson who is more suited to be the future of the franchise than McCoy is? McCoy's upside is capped and he's not a guy you can count on from week to week. He'll do just enough to make you wish you had stated someone else, but not enough to make you want to trade or drop him.
It's why I'm selling him. The Chiefs embarrassed the Jaguars last week and McCoy had just 11 touches. I see nothing that convinces me he'll suddenly go to 15 or 20 a game. He's good insurance for the Chiefs in case Williams or Thompson go down to injury but unless that happens, or you have a deep fantasy roster, I'd rather take a chance on a guy with some upside.
Hindery: The biggest argument in favor of McCoy is simply that he is a part of the best offense in football. The Chiefs scored 66 offensive touchdowns last season.
In Week 1, they went on the road to face a talented Jacksonville defense and scored four offensive touchdowns while racking up 491 yards. There are going to be yards and touchdowns to go around given the huge offensive pie.
The optimistic view of McCoy’s Week 1 performance hinges things on two things. First, he was a much more efficient runner than Damien Williams, gaining 55 more yards on the ground despite three fewer carries. He looked like he still had plenty of burst and he probably earned more carries in subsequent weeks from his performance.
Second, while McCoy only played 29 percent of the snaps, we can make a solid argument that is only because he signed with the Chiefs approximately one week before the game and still didn’t know the entire playbook. It is easy to see his share of snaps rising.
The pessimistic view of McCoy would be that it is possible we don’t see a big change in the distribution of snaps or offensive roles we saw in Week 1. Damien Williams played 66 percent of the snaps, which is typical for Reid's starting running backs.
Williams also saw six targets to just one for McCoy and the biggest strength of Williams’ game is as a pass-catcher. Williams also received the short-yardage and goal-line carries, another role he has handled well. If the roles don’t change much and McCoy doesn’t get the goal-line work or a big number of targets, it is hard to get too excited. Even averaging 8.1 yards per carry, he still finished as just the RB30 (PPR scoring) last week.
As long as the price is right, I am buying any and all pieces of this Chiefs offense, including McCoy. It isn’t crazy to set a baseline expectation of four offensive touchdowns and 425 yards from this offense heading into each game. It is hard to figure out exactly how this backfield will play out but McCoy has a reasonable path to a featured role, either through injury to Williams or by simply earning more playing time at Williams' expense.
Hicks: There is no doubt that LeSean McCoy is a better fantasy option in Kansas City than in Buffalo, despite a likely drop in touches. To be a fantasy starter in two-back leagues last year required less than 10 fantasy points a game. McCoy did that in his first game and has significant room for more touches, receptions, and touchdowns.
Damien Williams and the other backs are clearly not in the same class as McCoy, so best back sees the most points. The against argument relies on his age being an issue and the presence of Damien Williams stealing his touches and touchdowns.
I would clearly be buying McCoy while he can be acquired at below his value. We saw ample evidence in week one that McCoy has better vision and more adaptability in an offense that will allow him more room than he has seen since his Eagle days.
Simpkins: McCoy is in one of the best offenses in football. Despite not being the running back he once was, like Frank Gore, McCoy understands the nuances of the position to such a degree that he can compensate for his diminished athleticism.
Damien Williams is really just a guy and Darwin Thompson, while talented, is not ready to take on a featured role with this team. Williams and Thompson will get work, but that work will decrease as time passes because the team will see that McCoy offers the best value per touch of any of the three.
Still, there's an argument that McCoy’s skills have diminished significantly from where they were even three years ago. He’s in a three-headed committee with Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson that will limit his touches and upside, despite being in a good offense. McCoy will be the victim of irrational coaching and, while he will have good weeks, he is not trustworthy as a fantasy starter.
Once again, I’m taking the former argument. I’m buying McCoy wherever I can. If I’m hard-up at running back, I’ll look to trade someone like D.K. Metcalf or Cortland Sutton-- guys who had good weeks but probably will not be consistently steady producers.
Matt's Recommendations: I had McCoy as a top-20 fantasy runner as soon as he landed in Kansas City. It's difficult for many to separate a running back from his offensive line when analyzing the runner. However, if you watch how McCoy set up blocks or managed his decision-making behind a Bills' offensive line that no longer had the personnel that made it and McCoy one of the top running games in the NFL prior to Sean McDermott's head coaching tenure, you could see evidence that McCoy still had potential to be a productive running back.
The fact that Andy Reid and the Chiefs could separate process from outcome when studying McCoy and immediately signed him to a one-year, $4 million deal indicates that they believe he'll be Kansas City's best backfield weapon soon enough. McCoy made better decisions than Damien Williams this weekend and outproduced Williams despite a week of acclimation to the system—a scheme that has some similarities to what McCoy did in Philadelphia under Reid but not as similar as many claimed.
Because Reid has a penchant for leaning on one excellent back when he has one, there's an opportunity for McCoy to shut the door on the competition and take over as the feature back this year while the Chiefs are in a window of contention for an AFC Championship. However, Reid is usually patient enough to continue with a committee for 3-5 weeks before making the call.
Knowing that Reid will allow his backs to compete, Damien Williams and Darwin Thompson have the talent to force a committee with McCoy if McCoy lacks the stamina and special sauce he once had to deliver elite performances week after week and manage a high volume of touches. While I'm not a believer in Williams as anything more than a competent NFL running back, that's enough for solid RB2 production or low-end RB1 PPR production in this offense.
Thompson earned minimal touches this week but if Williams and/or McCoy falter, Reid will give Tompson an opportunity. Reid did this in the past with Charcandrick West, Spencer Ware, Damien, and Darrel Williams.
As mentioned, I'm on the McCoy side of the argument and if I find myself weak at running back, I'd value McCoy as a fantasy RB2 with hidden upside. It means that I'd try to acquire him at an RB3 value but I'd potentially pay RB2 capital if I had the depth live with that expense because I think there's a viable scenario where Reid makes McCoy the feature back and he delivers 1,500-1,600 total yards and double-digit touchdown totals as a surprise RB1 in his last hurrah.
I don't want to count that on that possibility but if the RB market is thin and I don't want to wait because I believe my trade bait will turn into rotten pumpkins soon, then I might take the chance, knowing that I usually can build contenders with strong talent at other positions while living with my best back having low-end RB2 value.
2. Buy Low, Sell High
Sigmund Bloom looks at the best players to trade and target in trades in fantasy leagues this week. In addition to his recommendation of buying low on McCoy, here are a few that caught my eye:
Buy Low
Dante Pettis, WR, SF - Pettis’s value can’t get much lower after barely being used in Week 1. Kyle Shanahan is playing motivation games, but it doesn’t change that Pettis is the most skilled receiver on the roster, and he is still very early in his development. If you were coveting him in dynasty leagues, the window is open to acquiring him. He'll soon have a big play or two to remind everyone why we were so excited about him a few months ago.
Raheem Mostert, RB, SF - Mostert shouldn’t be regarded lightly, as he had at least 59 rushing yards in the three games that saw him get seven or more carries last year, and he was the most effective running back for the 49ers in Week 1. He also doesn’t have the injury history of Matt Breida, and will probably appear in more games than Breida by season’s end.
Sell High
Derrick Henry, RB, TEN - Henry’s 75-yard touchdown catch and run came on a complete defensive breakdown, and otherwise, he wasn’t that effective as a runner despite an ideal game script. He’ll be an up and down fantasy commodity this year despite the great Week 1 line.
Adrian Peterson, RB, WAS - Hopefully the news that Derrius Guice could miss half or more of the season and Peterson’s numbers last year will induce someone to pay anything of value for him. Washington’s running game may produce a few good games this year, but good luck guessing when they will come and when Peterson will be a zonk.
Matt's Recommendations: I agree with Bloom on the Mostert and Pettis calls. Mostert runs hard and makes good decisions. With Tevin Coleman out and Matt Breida's injury history (he already had to leave the Week 1 game for a brief time after getting banged-up), Mostert could easily become the de facto starter. As RSP writer J. Moyer observed in a recent podcast, Deebo Samuel had difficulty separating against press coverage in the opener. If this continues, Pettis will likely re-gain a shot to be the every-down starter.
I want to agree with Bloom on Derrick Henry but if you're in a league that starts three running backs, I'd be a little more reticent to sell him unless you're earning high-end RB1-WR1-TE1 (1.5 PPR) value for him because the Falcons, Chargers, Broncos, Buccaneers, Panthers, Chiefs, Colts (twice), and Raiders, are nine enticing matchups before Week 14. I'd accept high-end WR2-TE1 (PPR) for Henry if have RB depth and need an asset at a different position.
As much as I love Adrian Peterson's playing style and talent, Washington's offensive line has been balky over the years so I begrudgingly agree with Bloom that the best decision with Peterson is to trade him now or live with a boom-bust player who may author RB2 value at year's end but the week-to-week consistency will leave your rattled and sore.
After the Cowboys and Bears in Weeks 2-3, there's a strong chance you'll be selling him low. If he actually delivers huge in one of those weeks, selling him might be easier than you think and is still probably the best idea. Frank Gore had a decent week against the Bears last year, a veteran back like Peterson could prove capable and help you market his value.
3. The Sharp Report
Ryan Zamichieli delivers an in-depth analysis of the best DFS NFL players and what these "Sharps" deem most important in their lineup-building processes. In this week's Sharp Report, Zamichieli profiles a pair of teams, one that earned over $1,000 and one that finished outside the money. He discovered the players that were on both rosters included Tyler Lockett, Dalvin Cook, Travis Kelce, and Chris Carson and explains why they were used.
This weekend's sharp play is Austin Ekeler:
In week one, Austin Ekeler handled the starting running back job while Melvin Gordon III holds out in pursuit of a new contract. Ekeler was on the field for 75 percent of the Chargers' offensive snaps in the game, and he finished with an impressive 39.6 DraftKings points. Ekeler caught 6 of his 7 targets for 96 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns in week one, in addition to his 58 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown. The Chargers will enter week two without starting tight end Hunter Henry after he went down with a fractured tibia plateau in his left knee. Henry and Ekeler work in similar parts of the field as quarterback Philip Rivers' safety valve in the passing game, meaning Ekeler's involvement in the passing game is likely to spike while the offense re-adjusts to life without its starting tight end. On the ground, Ekeler will likely see more than the 12 carries he tallied in week one. The Chargers enter week two as 3.5-point favorites on the road against the Detroit Lions, who fumbled away an 18-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Arizona Cardinals last week. In every facet of the game, Austin Ekeler is poised for a more significant role in week two than he saw in week one. A positive game script for the ground game, coupled with a necessity for Ekeler to step up in the passing game will lead the sharps to build around the Chargers' new starting running back in week two cash games.
Why Austin Ekeler?
- A highly-involved running back in his team's respective passing attack.
- Starting running back for a strong favorite playing in a dome.
- Middle-of-the-road price for a player that has proved to be one of the league's most efficient fantasy producers when on the field.
Matt's Recommendation: As a Justin Jackson fan who watched the Chargers-Colts game, it's fascinating to me that folks are either saying Ekeler earned the feature role last week or is in line for more touches in future weeks. Ekeler earned 60 percent of the carries and 70 percent of the targets but he only outgained Jackson by a yard on the ground, earning the vast majority of the difference between their outputs in the passing game.
While I appreciate that Ekeler is the safer play of the two runners, is he this sharp of a play against a Lions defense? You bet he is. Although the Lions have improved its front this is a young group of linebackers and the Chargers are certain to test them.
4. Offensive line Rankings And Notes: Week 2
Matt Bitonti delivers his news, injury reports, and analysis of offensive lines prior to the upcoming slate of games. Here are some key upgrades and downgrades from Bitonti's report:
HOUSTON UP 4 SLOTS
This is a cohesion upgrade based on experience as the team was running with rookie Tytus Howard and Max Scherping for most of the preseason but actually started Senio Kelemete at left guard and Zach Fulton at right guard last week at New Orleans. Along with the addition of Laremy Tunsil, this line has solid veterans at all five spots. It's not as exciting for long term upside but the vets should make fewer mistakes than the kids. It's a grown man's job in the trenches and both these rookies can use a year, or even a few months in the strength and conditioning program. The Texans' are a solid line in the latest rankings.
LA RAMS UP 5 SLOTS
The new starters Joseph Noteboom (left guard) and Brian Allen (center) flat out did their jobs last week at Carolina. Noteboom looked good pulling and the running lanes were huge for most of the day. Part of this was the unique play design but the Rams coaches took a risk going with less experienced players and so far, these players are comporting themselves like veterans. The Rams' line currently grades on the cusp between the mid and low tiers, but they are trending upward as a group.
OAKLAND UP 4 SLOTS
The pass blocking was surprisingly good Week 1 for the Raiders, who kept Von Miller and Bradley Chubb out of quarterback Derek Carr's face for most of the game. The addition of right tackle Trent Brown has been huge and left tackle Kolton Miller has grown into the job. The team is still without starting guard Richie Incognito (suspended) and Gabe Jackson (knee), but they could get both players back for Week 3. This is a mid-tier line in the grades but they are trending up and will likely jump in the rankings soon.
ATLANTA DOWN 4 SLOTS
Rookie right guard Chris Lindstrom broke his foot during the Week 1 loss at Minnesota and has been placed on the injured reserve list. Lindstrom could come back to the team around Week 10. Jamon Brown replaced him in the contest. The team paid Brown like a starter this offseason, but he's a clear step down from Lindstrom. The Falcons' line falls into the mid-tier.
NY JETS DOWN 7 SLOTS
This is a downgrade based on the individual play of center Ryan Kalil and right guard Brian Winters. Both were extremely shaky in the Week 1 home loss to Buffalo. Kalil was famously lured out of retirement and it's fair to ask how much he has left. Winters could be pushed by Alex Lewis, who was acquired from Baltimore via trade. The tackles of Kelvin Beachum and Brandon Shell were decent, for the most part. This entire offense looks disjointed under new head coach Adam Gase, proceed with extreme caution.
Matt Waldman's Recommendations: The Texans' line play for the ground game should make decent buy-low candidates out of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson Jr as the season unfolds. I was worried about the Rams' line before the opener but the unit played well against what has been a tough Panthers defense. However, the Panthers switched to a 3-4 this year so there are some kinks to work out and Peyton Barber just posed 82 yards and a score on Carolina Thursday night so I'm not sure Carolina's play matches its reputation. Still, I think the scheme, the skill players, and the line will work well enough to agree with Bitonti's assessment.
The Raiders were a pleasant surprise, especially as a banged-up unit. Josh Jacobs might wind up a "buy-high" and Derek Carr might not be a "sell high" if this upward trend continues. Tyrell Williams and Darren Waller look like excellent draft-day bargains already. Atlanta's line looked awful last week but it was a bad performance from an injured group versus a top defense. I'm concerned but Bitonti seems less concerned than I, so here's hoping Atlanta rebounds enough to prove him correct. I know many who are bailing on Devonta Freeman but I'm not there yet. It may be too late if I wait, but last week's ground game looked like an anomaly even if the pass protection looks more like the early stages of a bad trend.
I think Buffalo's defense is good enough that the Jets' woes were a combination of rust and the Bills' talent. However, Bitonti's thoughts on coaching and execution should not be ignored. Le'Veon Bell is good enough to produce with an underachieving offensive line but it will be even harder on him without Sam Darnold for at least a month.
5. Chad Parson's Early-Season Dynasty Trading
Parson's is well-known as a dynasty league strategist. This week's article includes thoughts on who to buy and sell. Here are some of the prominent names I found interesting.
Williams dominated the Chiefs' running back snaps in Week 1, but it felt like LeSean McCoy was merely getting his feet wet with the offense and ramping up for more snaps and usage in short order. Williams shifting to a 1B or more receiving-centric role will still have value but more in the low-RB2 or Flex lineup conversation than an auto-start like Week 1. Williams was a tough sell in the offseason based around the general market being skeptical of Williams to be the unquestioned starter and being such a late-career bloomer if he did pull off the strong start-to-finish 2019 performance. Any future first-round pick would be a dynasty trade win in return for Williams, but even a 2020 Round 2 pick and an injury-away type running back is an acceptable outcome.
There are multiple variables at play to make Gordon not worth the trouble. First, his own long-standing oscillation between eligible to play and out of commission. The second part is Antonio Brown's potential presence in the offseason, which would siphon the upside from all other pieces. Yes, the best case is Gordon could be active for the entire season and Brown could torpedo his chances in New England as quickly as they start. However, a heavy majority of the outcomes involve one of those two things turning against Gordon and this sell window dissolving quickly. Examples of recent trades include:
- Gordon, David Johnson, Eric Ebron for Christian McCaffrey
- Gordon, 20 4th, 20 5th for Darren Waller, 20 1st
- Gordon, J.K.Dobbins for Julio Jones
Cohen was the leading snap running back for the Bears in Week 1 at 70%, but the number is misleading as Cohen was largely in a receiver alignment instead of in the backfield. Mike Davis and David Montgomery are firmly ahead of Cohen for running back opportunities in the crowded backfield and the Bears are a spread-it-around attack on offense anyways to temper Cohen's upside, which will be high variance and tough to project week-to-week as a satellite option. In trading away Cohen the goal should be to acquire a more stable long-term asset and/or a running back with a more prototypical profile to be an unquestioned starter. Recent trades of this ilk include Cohen, 3rd, and 4th for 20 1st, Cohen for T.Y. Hilton, and Cohen and 20 3rd for Devin Singletary as ideas.
Matt's Recommendations: I love that Chad is listing recent trades that he's observed here. While I'm more inclined to think that the more chances Gordon gets with the league equates to a greater likelihood that he's been through the worst of his recovery. However, if you're not thinking this way and want to get the most value from Gordon, Chad's suggested offerings are good ones.
I also like the haul you can get for Zach Ertz, especially George Kittle. I'd gladly give away Ertz and Chark for Kittle. Njoku? No, I prefer Ertz in this instance. If you can land T.Y. Hilton for Cohen—even with Jacoby Brissett as the Colts' starter—I'd do this all day.
Thanks again for reading and I hope these insights help you get the most from Footballguys this week and throughout the season.
