THE SHARP REPORT
One of the most proficient gamblers that sportsbooks have ever seen, Haralabos Voulgaris, is on record saying the main reason he retired from professional gambling is that he was gradually losing his edge against the sportsbooks. Voulgaris explains that every time he placed a bet, he gave the sportsbook a metaphoric piece to the puzzle that, once solved, would completely erase his edge to the point where he would no longer be a profitable bettor. The same way sportsbooks learned from Voulgaris’ bets and eroded his edge, daily fantasy sports players can learn from their top competitors and eat away at their edge. These top competitors, known as sharps, typically play DFS at a much higher level and for much more money than others. These players normally have very advanced and accurate projection systems that give them their edge over the field. Fortunately, every time they enter a contest the sharp players’ lineups are available to the public to be broken down, analyzed and learned from. The Sharp Report will be a weekly article that uses all available and applicable data to draw conclusions regarding how the industry’s smartest decision makers and their projections systems come to their final conclusions when building lineups. Over the course of the entire season, The Sharp Report’s goal will be to project what the best players in the industry will do in upcoming contests and, in turn, figure out what it is that gives these high-level players their edge over the field.
Throughout each week, more and better information regarding things like player availability, individual matchups, and depth charts will become available. The section of this article projecting which player is likely to be rostered by most of the sharp players next week will be updated by Saturday afternoon each week after all applicable information has become available. If enough data reveals itself that a completely new player is deemed worthy of being mentioned as Next Week's Sharp Play, the original section will appear in red font and the new section will appear in green font. If all available information leads to the same conclusion made earlier in the week, the original section will be changed from black font to green font.
The players analyzed in this article consistently play, and win, in high-stakes contests and are also ranked in the top ten percent in RotoGrinders’ super heavyweight division of DFS players. Players’ names will be omitted from the article, but all lineups analyzed are from the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings.
the teams
TEAM #1:
TEAM #2:
Team 1 cashed in the $1,060 GIANT 50-50 while Team 2 finished just outside the money. Team 2's failure to cash was, in large part, thanks to an injury to Nick Foles that limited him to just 8 pass attempts on the day.
the overlap
Dalvin Cook finished as week one's most-rostered player in high-stakes cash games across both sites. In the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings, an astonishing 91.4 percent of sharps built their lineups around Cook.
(Last week's analysis used to project Dalvin Cook as one of the Sharp Plays of the week) The Minnesota Vikings will play host to the Atlanta Falcons to open the 2019 season, and the betting market has the home team pegged as four-point favorites in the friendly confines of U.S. Bank Stadium. Throughout the 2018 season, Dalvin Cook contributed to five Vikings victories. Across those 5 games, Cook averaged 15.88 FanDuel points and 18.22 DraftKings points per game. Additionally, the team relieved offensive coordinator John DeFilippo of his coaching duties following a week 14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks. In his place, Kevin Stefanski was appointed as the offense's new play-caller with explicit instructions to run the ball more frequently and more efficiently. Over the final 3 games of the season, Dalvin Cook posted 19, 16, and 11 rushing attempts, respectively. The meager 11 rushing attempts from week 17 came in a 24-10 loss at the hands of the Bears that had the Vikings playing catch-up from the onset of the game.
Dalvin Cook projects to be the Minnesota Vikings' bell-cow throughout the 2019 season. In the modern NFL, true bell-cow running backs are extremely tough to come by, but Cook truly possesses the well-rounded skillset required of a three-down running back. Cook projects for one of the largest workloads on the slate and the production should follow. FootballGuys' own David Dodds projects Dalvin Cook to finish as the number 1 running back on DraftKings and the number 4 running back on FanDuel according to h-value. In short, h-value is a more advanced way to evaluate the value provided by a player at his specific price, developed in part by FootballGuys' own Dan Hindery. For a more in-depth explanation on h-value, click here.
Why Dalvin Cook?
- A true three-down running back expected to be his respective team's bell-cow in 2019.
- Starting running back for a strong home favorite.
- Starting running back in one of the league's most run-heavy offenses.
Tyler Lockett checked finished as one of the most-popular wide receivers on the week one slate of games. Following the departure of Doug Baldwin, the best fantasy football players clearly expect Tyler Lockett's output to increase more substantially than DraftKings and FanDuel's pricing algorithms do, as 44.3 percent of players in high-stakes cash games deemed his $6,000 price tag on DraftKings to be too low.
(Last week's analysis used to project Tyler Lockett as one of the Sharp Plays of the week)
Tyler Lockett is poised to immediately assume the number-one spot at wide receiver this season following the retirement of Doug Baldwin. The Seattle Seahawks attempted to address their lack of depth at wide receiver by drafting D.K. Metcalf early in the 2019 draft, but by most accounts he is still a work in progress. While Metcalf may have the physical tools that typically lead to NFL success, the finer points in his game still need refining, which will likely prevent him from becoming a legitimate number-one NFL wide receiver in the early days of his career. Throughout 2018, Tyler Lockett proved to have impressive chemistry with quarterback Russell Wilson, as the two combined for one of the most efficient quarterback-wide receiver seasons in recent memory. As the team's unquestioned top-dog in the wide receiver's room, Tyler Lockett's outlook for the 2019 season is bright.
In week one, Lockett and the Seahawks take on the Cincinnati Bengals at home. Seattle is favored in the game by 10 points, according to Pinnacle, with an implied team total of 27; one of the highest totals on the entire slate. Tyler Lockett will likely see an increase in volume throughout the 2018 season without Doug Baldwin's presence in the passing game, which certainly bodes well for his fantasy viability. Even if this increased volume and sample size leads to a drop in efficiency from 2018's near-historic levels, Lockett should still rank amongst the NFL's most efficient aerial threats. At just $6,000 on DraftKings and $6,800 on FanDuel, Lockett is far too cheap for his expected involvement in Seattle's offense. Build cash teams around Dalvin Cook and Tyler Lockett with confidence in week one, as many of the sharpest DFS players will likely do the same.
Why Tyler Lockett?
- Expected increase in targets following the departure of the team's top wide receiver.
- Number one receiving option for the team expected to total the third-most points on the entire slate, according to betting markets.
- Middle-of-the-road price for a number one wide receiver in an expectedly-strong matchup.
Chris Carson entered the 2019 season priced at $5,700 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel for the opening slate of the year. This middling price tag caught the eye of sharps across the board, leading 64.3 percent of sharps in the GIANT $1,060 50-50 to roster Chris Carson as either a running back or flex option in cash games.
When the Seattle Seahawks used a first-round pick on a running back (Rashaad Penny) in the 2018 NFL Draft, Chris Carson's days as a starter were assumed to be numbered. Carson's on-field performance, however, has been enough to cement himself as the team's number-one running back over the past year. Here in week one of the 2019 season, with a secure starting role, Chris Carson proved to be one of the sharpest options on the entire slate at the running back position. Carson closed the 2018 season with 4 straight games of at least 19 carries, and at least 16 carries in 6 of Seattle's final 7 outings. Carson's status as Seattle's bell-cow running back is unquestioned, and as a 9-point home favorite, Seattle projected as one of the most run-heavy offenses of week one. In addition to Carson's expected workload on the ground, offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer made it clear this offseason that he intends to utilize Carson more as a pass-catcher in 2019 than he has in the past. In week one, Chris Carson came through for sharps, both on the ground and through the air, en route to a strong 25.7-point performance on DraftKings and 21.1-point performance on FanDuel.
Why Chris Carson?
- Bell-cow running back for his team expected to see more involvement in the passing game.
- Starting running back for a heavy (nine-point) home favorite.
- Starting running back for one of the league's most run-heavy offense,
On the opening slate of 2019, Travis Kelce was priced at $7,100 and $7,800 on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. Given Kelce's absurd usage rates at the tight end position, coupled with a favorable matchup, the sharps locked in on Kelce as one of the building blocks for successful cash-game lineups. In the GIANT $1,060 50-50 on DraftKings, 31.4 percent of players paid top-dollar at the tight end position in hopes that Kelce's unmatched involvement would bear fruit in week one.
The Kansas City Chiefs entered week one as 3.5-point road favorites against the Jacksonville Jaguars and their offense was expected to outscore every other team on the main slate of games. Travis Kelce finished 2018 as Kansas City's most-targeted pass-catcher, registering over 9.2 targets-per-game. Over the offseason, the Kansas City Chiefs passing attack lost Chris Conley and his 52 targets to free agency and did little to replace his production directly. The Chiefs will seemingly turn towards their returning pass-catchers to build upon their strong 2018 campaigns to make up for the loss of Conley. If just 1/3 of Conley's 9-percent market share of team targets goes to Travis Kelce in 2019, Kelce will amass approximately 1 full additional target per game this year. Travis Kelce has established himself as arguably the best tight end in fantasy football in recent seasons. In 2018, Kelce scored at least 14.5 DraftKings points in 10 out of 16 regular-season games. Kelce's unmatched floor and ceiling at the tight end position caught the attention of sharps in week one, and he will likely continue to do so throughout the 2019 season.
Why Travis Kelce?
- Leading receiver on the offense with the highest implied team total on the slate, according to betting markets.
- Unmatched producer at the tight end position with a strong floor and ceiling of production.
- Depleted group of wide receivers provided an opportunity to carve out an even larger role in the league's best passing offense.
NEXT WEEK'S SHARP PLAY
In week one, Austin Ekeler handled the starting running back job while Melvin Gordon holds out in pursuit of a new contract. Ekeler was on the field for 75 percent of the Chargers' offensive snaps in the game, and he finished with an impressive 39.6 DraftKings points. Ekeler caught 6 of his 7 targets for 96 yards and 2 receiving touchdowns in week one, in addition to his 58 rushing yards and 1 rushing touchdown. The Chargers will enter week two without starting tight end Hunter Henry after he went down with a fractured tibia plateau in his left knee. Henry and Ekeler work in similar parts of the field as quarterback Philip Rivers' safety valve in the passing game, meaning Ekeler's involvement in the passing game is likely to spike while the offense re-adjusts to life without its starting tight end. On the ground, Ekeler will likely see more than the 12 carries he tallied in week one. The Chargers enter week two as 3.5-point favorites on the road against the Detroit Lions, who fumbled away an 18-point lead in the 4th quarter to the Arizona Cardinals last week. In every facet of the game, Austin Ekeler is poised for a more significant role in week two than he saw in week one. A positive game script for the ground game, coupled with a necessity for Ekeler to step up in the passing game will lead the sharps to build around the Chargers' new starting running back in week two cash games.
Why Austin Ekeler?
- A highly-involved running back in his team's respective passing attack.
- Starting running back for a strong favorite playing in a dome.
- Middle-of-the-road price for a player that has proved to be one of the league's most efficient fantasy producers when on the field.
PREVIOUSLY PROJECTED SHARP PLAYS
Week 1: Dalvin Cook- 25.0 FanDuel points (3.4x value)/29 DraftKings points (4.8x value)
- 91.4 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
Week 1: Tyler Lockett- 10.8 FanDuel points (1.6x value)/11.4 DraftKings points (1.9x value)
- 44.3 percent-rostered in GIANT $1,060 50-50
