Updated 8/27: When I draft, I always have a tier sheet handy. I find that organizing players by tiers is far more beneficial than merely ranking players.
I could rank Odell Beckham Jr. over Julio Jones, but it is impossible to truly predict who will finish better between the two of them. Maybe Jones has fifty more yards on the season then ODB, or maybe Beckham has one more touchdown. Who knows; but I do know that both should finish better than a guy like Alshon Jeffery.
Another reason I prefer tier rankings is that a range of outcomes approach is preferable to just this is what a guy will finish with at the end of the season. Jason Witten and Frank Gore have low end RB1 and TE1 numbers the past two years, but their weekly numbers are not going to help you win your weeks for the most part. In essence, you are looking for a player that has a chance to perform at a weekly level that is higher than a mere replacement level player, even if that replacement level player may have decent looking year-end numbers. Which brings me to my final point, fantasy football, in season long leagues, is about winning weeks, so you need to draft a combination of players where some have high ceiling, while some of high floors. That is how you win.
Aaron Rodgers, Packers – He’s as safe a pick as there is in fantasy leagues, but you have to hope this offense comes out of the gate hot and not sputtering like they have done the past few seasons. Jordy Nelson did look a bit slower last year, but he is now two years to fully removed from his knee surgery and this team is full of talented receivers including Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, Ty Montgomery, Martellus Bennett, Lance Kendricks and rookie Malachi Dupre.
Tom Brady, Patriots – PFF’s #1 rated QB from 2016. The loss of saftey valve Julien Edelman hurts, but they added a slew of new weapons this year with addition of Brandin Cooks, Dwayne Allen and Rex Burkhead. Additionally, Gronk is fully healthy coming into the season and Malcolm Mitchell has a year under his belt and flashed big time last season. This team’s running back core is also built for dump offs and big yards after the catch, not grinding runs. If you feel nervous about his age, very easy to handcuff in season long leagues with Jimmy Garoppolo.
Drew Brees, Saints - Locked and loaded as usual, but loss of Cooks and lack of a reliable tight end does hurt a bit. I like the addition of Alvin Kamara as a pass catching back, and Ted Ginn and Brandon Coleman have been playing well in camp. He threw for nearly 5,000 yards and 37 TDs last season, look for that to continue.
Matt Ryan, Falcons – All of their offensive pieces remain and tight end Austin Hooper could develop into a true weapon. The biggest loss was offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan moving on to the 49ers after Ryan had a career year, as his Adjusted Yards/Attempt of 10.1 was the third best of all time behind only Aaron Rodgers in 2011 and Peyton Manning in 2013, finishing the season as the QB1. Matt Ryan’s passer rating was 117.1, which is also the fifth highest mark in NFL history. Per ESPN Stats & Information since 2001, the only team to score more frequently on its drives is the 2007 Patriots, and all this as the Falcons played the toughest schedule of opposing defenses in football. While per PFF, his fantasy points per drop back also skyrocketed to 0.59 after being below the NFL average the prior three seasons. However, there is a reason Ryan was going off the board beyond round 10 last year, and we can probably assume there will be some regression to his mean, but it's hard to best against him after seeing his ceiling and without much change the weapons around him, including a top six offensive line. In fact, after running one of the leagues slower paced offenses last season, averaging 28.29 seconds between plays (23rd in the league) and just 62 plays per game (26th), new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian is going to allow Matt Ryan to check between three or four different plays at the line of scrimmage.
Kirk Cousins, Redskins – Arguably an even better receiving core this year with the additions of Terrelle Pryor and a healthy rookie Josh Doctson to go along with Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder. He finished as fantasy’s 8th best quarterback last year with 4,917 passing yards (3rd highest) and with a 97.2 passer rating (7th best). Per ESPN's Matt Berry, last season Cousins threw for either 300 yards or 2 touchdowns in 14 games and the Redskins have the 5th most passing yards in the league since head coach Jay Gruden took over the reigns there in 2014. Playing once again for a big contract, Cousins should be a reliable weekly starter.
Russell Wilson, Seahawks – I've officially dropped him a tier after the leagues worst offensive lines just lost their left tackle. While he should be okay playing at home, with all the crowd noise on his side, he could be a disaster at time on the road, like when they played Tampa Bay last year and their defense was sitting in their backfield upon the ball being hiked. All that aside, he showed last year that he can have success as a pocket passer. He will have even better weapons available to him this season with Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett both fully healthy and wide receiver Paul Richardson ascending. While this team will still roll through the running backs, and attempts won't increase, what he does with those attempts should be even better. He also has a great floor running the ball. His offensive line though is just brutal.
Marcus Mariota, Titans – This team is loaded with weapons and Mariota is by far the biggest beneficiary for fantasy purposes. He now has Erick Decker, to go along with highly touted rookies Corey Davis and Taywan Taylor, Rishard Matthews, running back Demarco Murray, Derek Henry and tight end Delanie Walker. Not to mention depth pieces in Tajae Sharpe and Harry Douglas. Last season he averaged more than 21 fantasy points a game and went on a solid run from Week 5 through 12 where he had at least two touchdowns a game, finishing as a Top 12 QB in every week. Per PFF, Mariota also has had the best red zone passer rating in the league over the past two seasons (35.1%); besting both Tom Brady and Andrew Luck. The downside to Mariota is that this team will supposedly still wants to stick to its exotic smash-mouth brand of football and he has ended the past two seasons on IR. Additionally, while they may play in more three receiver sets than in the past (they were near the bottom of the league last year), their pace of play may still remain slow. All that said, if he can stay healthy, he could absolutely blow up in his third season as a top 5 quarterback, especially if starts adding some more yards on the ground, which would be shocking if he didn’t. With one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, he should have a Top 12 QB weekly floor, so I’m buying.
Derek Carr, Raiders – Carr has emerged as a legitimate NFL quarterback with very capable weapons in Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Jared Cook and potential rookie Ish Zamora, who has traits of Martavis Bryant. With a top 3 offensive line and the return of Marshawn Lynch and second year backs DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard, there is a lot to like in this offense. He was a top 10 fantasy quarterback last season no matter your scoring system, finished 7th in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt, 7th in Football Outsiders DYAR ranking and was the 5th rated passer per PFF. Carr had 28 touchdown and just 6 interceptions in his second season, and also has 81 touchdowns in his first three years of playing, which ranks 4th all time. He is a safe backend QB1 and has the potential to take a major step forward. A 35 touchdown, 4,200 yard season is well within reach.
Andrew Luck, Colts – Why so low on Luck right now? Because he is coming off of shoulder surgery, isn’t throwing yet, may miss the first few games of the season and he may not even be healthy all year, which is not good, since getting healthy in-season is never going to happen. His shoulder aside, if everyone can stay healthy, there is no reason he can’t finish the year as a Top 5 QB. He played most of the season injured and it showed. Second year receiver Chester Rogers is having a very good camp, as is Philip Dorsett, both of whom give them a legitimate third receiver and Donte Moncrief (still just 23 years old) is finally going to break out; despite putting up tight end type numbers last year, Matt Harmon’s reception perception methodology still loves him and I do too. Lack of a difference making running back, the shoulder injury, the loss of their center and the issues on the right side of this offensive line are concerns. Right now he is a total avoid for me, and he should be for you as well unless picking up another solid quarertback too.
Matthew Stafford, Lions – People hate on Stafford, but he’s a top-level quarterback in an offense that is still built on passing the ball, throwing it on 65% of their plays last season (3rd most in the league), and a ton especially in the red-zone. Injuries to Marvin Jones, Eric Ebron, Ameer Abdullah and Theo Riddick all worked to hamper what started out as a great season last year, but they are all back healthy in addition to perennial 90+ catch receiver, Golden Tate. After fortifying their offensive line during the off-season, the Lions unfortunately lost their starting left tackle, Taylor Decker, for at least the first month of the season, while left guard, Laken Tomlinson, is also a question mark, but he is entering his third year and is a former first round pick. This team does have weapons though, with both 3rd round rookie receiver Kenny Golladay and former Packer, Jared Abbrederis, who are both drawing rave reviews in camp. If all his weapons can stay healthy, and his new offensive line holds up, Stafford should be a top-notch starter this season in fantasy. There is a lot to like here, and the continuity of the offensive scheme and skill players always helps.
Cam Newton, Panthers – Additions of rookie running back Christian McCaffrey and running back/receiver hybrid Curtis Samuels should help give this team some speed and weapons near the line of scrimmage, which will help since Cam was pretty erratic throwing the ball down the field, although he was also the worst passer the league on throws 5 yards or less as well, so there is that. While they want to make Cam more of a pocket passer, he will not be able to change the way he has played his whole life in one off-season, especially since he is still coming off of shoulder surgery and can't even throw fully in camp yet. His transformation is a process that will probably take 2 or 3 years, so expect to see a lot of yards on the ground as usual. Like Andrew Luck, it’s tough to bet heavily on a quarterback coming off a shoulder surgery.
Philip Rivers, Chargers – Rivers has a chance to be a Tier 2 quarterback if his offensive line and wide receivers stay healthy, something that has killed him two years in a row now, and perhaps (stupidly) the reason I don't have him ranked higher now. Unfortunately the injury bug has already hit with first round wide receiver pick Mike Williams possibly done for the year and third round offensive lineman pick Forrest Lamp on injured reserve. Neither is killer blow just yet, and this offense is still loaded with weapons (Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin, Antonio Gates, Hunter Henry, Dontrelle Inman, Melvin Gordon) and is going to be a fun watch. It would probably surprise some people to know he threw the 4th most touchdowns (33) last season and had the 5th most passing yards (4,386) playing with backups. A true gunslinger, if the skill players stay healthy, this could finally be the year Rivers delivers as a top 5 quarterback.
Dak Prescott, Cowboys - In his rookie year, Prescott had a very solid 67.8% completion percentage, throwing for 3,667 yards and 23 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. He also added 282 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns on the ground; finishing as a Top 10 fantasy quarterback and posting 10, top 12 weeks. Unfortunately, outside of Elliot and Dez Bryant, the team doesn’t have any truly dynamic weapons and they lost a few pieces on their vaunted offensive line, making them more of a top ten unit as opposed to the far and away best unit in the league. Opening up the offense will be a good thing for Dak’s growth, but that can also lead to more erratic play and possibly a sophomore slump, especially since teams have had more time to prepare for him with a full season of tape. The Cowboys also go from having one of the easiest schedules in the league last year to one of the toughest this season, opening with a tough slate of games against the Giants and then at the Broncos and at the Cardinals. We are going to find out quickly how well Prescott can handle the added responsibility. The perfect storm of 2016 has dissipated.
Jameis Winston, Buccaneers – Winston has weapons galore, adding Desean Jackson to go along with top notch rookies tight end O.J. Howard and under rated receiver Chris Godwin, who has been balling in camp. Winston's only issues are the few holes on the offensive line, particularly at left tackle, and his bouts of erratic play. He was PFF's 20th ranked quarterback last season and had a middle of the pack 64.9 QBR rating from ESPN. Coming into his third season, there is hope he becomes more consistent. If you’re betting on upside, he could easily finish in the Top 10 and I have a feeling I will eventually move him up these rankings.
Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers – As long as Antonio Brown and LeVeon Bell are healthy, Big Ben will put up numbers, at home at least. Those road splits are real and can kill you without other options at the ready. The return of Martavis Bryant and the addition of rookie JuJu Smith-Schuster and Justin Hunter will hopefully cure those clunker road games, but Big Ben has finished as a Top 10 QB just once in the past seven years and Top 12 just twice. He is also guaranteed to miss at least 2 or 3 games to injury, making him a frustrating quarterback to own as your QB1.
Andy Dalton, Bengals – This team reloaded with weapons by adding dynamic running back Joe Mixon and stud first round pick receiver, John Ross. The key here is health, something Tyler Eifert and Ross have had a hard time with. He’s had runs of fantasy dominance that usually pitters out and kills you when the injury bug hits. Expect a fast start to the season once again, but with one of the worst offensive lines in the league (particularly at the tackles and right guard), it could get ugly quick, especially if Eifert and Ross can't stay healthy. As Scott Barett from PPF mentioned, when under pressure Dalton's passer rating is just 57.1, which ranked seventh-worst last year, and "since he entered the league, Dalton ranks 14th-worst in passer rating when under pressure, among all 39 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 pass attempts over that stretch." If everyone stays healthy, Dalton could easily end up finishing as a top 10 quarterback and two QB league steal. If not, he could end the season shell shocked from all the hits.
Eli Manning, Giants – Tying your quarterback to Odell Beckham Jr. is never a bad idea especially with the additions of Brandon Marshall, rookie TE/WR Evan Engram to go along with second year phenom, Sterling Shepard. I’m not sold on Paul Perkins, and think we could see a healthy dose of Shane Vereen in in pass catching role. This offensive line is a real worry though, but with all these weapons, the best way to overcome that weakness is to spread things out and attack teams with quick passes. Last year they did just that, going 3 wide on a ridiculous 92% of their snaps. My biggest worry is Eli himself, he has shown signs of decline and has to start making accurate throws again, but at least this is a pass first offense with a lot of great weapons. Last season the Giants threw the ball on over 62% of their plays. That number could actually increase this year to 65%+.
Carson Palmer, Cardinals – Completion percentage, yards, touchdowns and big games were all down last year, partially due to a depleted offensive line and receiving core. The offensive line should be okay this season, with right guard being their only glaring weakness, but they didn’t do anything to upgrade their receiving core in any meaningful way. We have to hope John Brown can stay healthy this year in his battle against Sickle Cell, as he is a great receiver who they need. Unfortunately he is already dealing with a hamstring injury, which could possibly be related to sickle cell, as dehydration and cramping are symptoms. I wouldn’t be surprised if they signed a receiver like Vincent Jackson or picked up someone dropped from another team who would add some much needed size on the outside, especially since rookie Chad Williams has not been showing well in camp so far. Despite a decent schedule and the presence of Larry Fitzgerald and David Johnson, I find it very tough to get behind Palmer as a season long grab without the additions of additional weapons at receiver or tight end. And if one of those two guys got hurt, it will be a total mess. Although my biggest issue may be with head coach Bruce Arians and his insistence on Palmer taking 7 step, deep drops instead of having Palmer get the ball out quickly. Can Palmer stay healthy taking big hits?
Sam Bradford, Vikings – Bradford is regarded as a bust, but a closer look shows signs of life. Since coming into the league Bradford suffered a slew of early season fluke injuries and has also had the same offensive coordinator just once in successive years. Last season was no different, joining the Vikings as the season was just set to begin and then losing offensive coordinator Norv Turner during the middle of the season. Yet, as PFF's Pat Thorman mentioned on Twitter, Bradford set career highs in completion percentage, adjusted yards per pass attempt, touchdown to interception percentage and passer rating all behind the league’s 4th worst pass blocking offensive line. This season, Bradford knows the offensive scheme, has an upgraded set of weapons with the addition of Michael Floyd and Dalvin Cook, and a (slightly) upgraded offensive line. He is a great late QB2 steal for those waiting until the 15th round to grab their second quarterback in two quarterback or super-flex leagues.
Tyrod Taylor, Bills – The loss of Sammy Watkins hurts, but it is in no way a killer for his value, and the additions of Zay Jones and Jordan Matthews definitely help to ease the blow. With Watkins, Taylor averaged 22.5 fpg and without him, a small drop to 21.3 fpg. While he averaged less passing yards without Watkins, he actually avergaed three more pass attempts per game without him and ran for 15 more yards. The biggest problem with Taylor is that the Bills may bench him in favor of rookie Peterman if they start to lose, so drafting him comes with serious risk. If he sticks as the starter here, this is still a team with some decent weapons and have two great running backs in LeSean McCoy and Jonathan Williams, plus tight end Charles Clay, who is a reliable target. They also signed free agents Andre Holmes and Rod Streater, so they have a capable, but not overly exciting, receiving core. Last year Tyrod finished first amongst all quarterbacks in runs, yards and touchdowns on the ground, although his pass attempts per game ranked 35th in 2015 and 33rd in 2016. The running game provides him with a safe floor, but the lack of pass attempts prevents him from having huge upside. While there is some risk to him, at the moment the teams has come out and stated that he is their starter and will be under center come Week 1. It's also very late in the pre-season to trade away a quarterback, so he is safer and safer every day that goes by.
Jay Cutler, Dolphins – With Ryan Tannehill potentially done for the year, the Dolphins signed Cutler to fill the void. In his one season with Dolphins head coach Adam Gase in Chicago, Cutler had a solid 64.4% completion rate, threw for 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions and finished as fantasy's 20th best quarterback on the year avergaing nearly 16 fpg. Although Alshon Jeffery missed 7 games that season and the team had very little else behind him. I’ve never been a big fan of Tannehill’s and while I don’t think Cutler will make for a reliable weekly fantasy starter for your team, he will at least be an upgrade for the Miami skill players. Kenny Stills could see more deep balls, Cutler will challenge tight throws to DeVante Parker, and he won't ignore the tight end, Julius Thomas. Perhaps Jarvis Landry will be the biggest loser since he will no longer be the nunny (kids) blanket he was to Tannehill once bullets started flying. That said, Cutler made Eddie Royal a 91-catch player, so it's not like Cutler will ignore Landry either. Cutler may drive the Dolphins fan base to madness with 4th quarter rifles into tight coverage to lose the game, but for Fantasy, I think him and head coach Gase will provide better fantasy value for the Miami skill players.
Carson Wentz, Eagles – Wentz could easily outplay this ranking and is a prime candidate to move up my board once we get further into the pre-season. He started last season strong, but faltered badly after losing right tackle Lane Johnson to suspension. After having one of the worst receiving cores in the league last season, they have surrounded him with legitimate weapons in Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith to compliment Darren Sproles, Nelson Agholor and tight end Zach Ertz. As a rookie he threw the ball a ridiculously 38 times a game, and without the semblance of capable corner backs that could certainly be the case again this year again. Volume is king in fantasy (as we have seen with Blake Bortles in the past), despite some serious mechanical flaws.
Alex Smith, Chiefs – Two words: Alex. Smith. He’s not like a box of chocolates, you know what you are going to get. Although last year was a down year both in terms of TDs and rushing yards, even for him. If you are looking for 20 passing touchdowns, 2 rushing touchdowns and about 400 yards on the ground, he is your man. Supposidly the presence of Patrick Mahomes has made Smith take more chances and push things down field more in camp, it's tough to teach an old dog new tricks, but perhaps that carries over to the regular season. Throwing to Hill also doesn't hurt, as he is a big play waiting to happen.
Joe Flacco, Ravens – Flacco has never been counted on as a weekly starter in fantasy leagues, and in DFS you are really trying to predict those few “Wacko for Flacco” weeks on the cheap. His back injury aside, which should hopefully not be a long-term issue, there are major deficiencies on this offensive line outside of Stanley and Yada, which is a concern. At tight end, with Dennis Pitta and his 86 catches done for the year it remains to be seen if Ben Watson can return to form at the age of 37 coming off of an Achilles tear. The team at least has a strong wide receiving core with the addition of Jeremy Maclin to go along with Mike Wallace and potential breakout player, Breshad Perriman. The biggest addition though may be Danny Woodhead, who despite turning 32 and coming off injury, appears to be playing well in pre-season practices.
Trevor Siemian, Broncos – Sanity has prevailed and they have named him the starter over Paxton Lynch. If he was a higher pick, this wouldn't have even been a contest. While he played okay last season, he still had a QBR of just 55 and a negative seven DVOA, a metric by Football Outsiders that represents value per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. Reasons for optimism is that last year was essentially his rookie season, he has three great receivers in Thomas, Sanders and rookie Carlos Henderson to go along with two quality veteran running backs in C.J. Anderson and Jamaal Charles, plus rookie DeAngelo Henderson. New offensive coordinator Mike McCoy should help him develop with a lot of screen passes and he loves to push the ball downfield and they did upgrade their offensive line with the signing of Cowboys stud right guard Ron Leary, trading for left guard Allen Barbre, then right tackle Menelik Watson to go along with top graded center Matt Pardis, blocking tight end Virgil Green and rookie left tackle Garrett Bolles. The line is finally a strength.
Jared Goff, Rams – Everybody hates him and has written him off as a total bust, but I’m not one of those people. He came from playing in a juvenile offense in college, but that doesn’t mean he’s not talented, he just needs time. So far so good as he has looked much improved in the first two pre-season games. The Rams upgraded their offensive line, signing PFF's second best graded left tackle, Andrew Whitworth from the Bengals. On the receiving end, the additions of Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods are huge and provide a reliable presence to go along with Tavon Austin, rookies Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds, and intriguing second year tight end Tyler Higbee and stud rookie tight end Gerald Everett, There are now a ton of weapons here, and while it might take another season for it to all come together, Goff could suprise.
Brian Hoyer, 49ers – He is the 49ers starter, but I just don’t see the weapons for him to be reliable even though he is familiar with head coach Kyle Shanahan’s offense from his time in Cleveland, where he actually didn’t run it very well. Fortunately for him, Matt Ryan didn't run the Shanahan offense very well either his first year, which is known to be tough to pick up. He is not someone to draft, but he could end up being a streaming option.
DeShone Kizer, Browns - It looks like he has won the starting job. He's a big guys standing 6'4" 233 pounds, but isn't really the running quarterback people for some reason think he is, he's more of a thrower and has a huge arm. Th ebiggest knock on him is his rawness and his "lazy eyes" in terms of being late to anticipate and see where he should throw it. There will be a serious ups and downs, but he has been the most impressive quarterback of all the rookies so far. The team has a much improved offensive line, which is a top 3 unit now. The losses of tight end Gary Barnidge and wide receiver Terrelle Pryor does hurt though, as I believe that Kenny Britt is a slight downgrade from Pryor and it remains to be seen how quickly tight end David Njoku can transition to the NFL game. There is no denying Njoku is a freak athlete and has a bright future, but the transition to tight end in the NFL from college is not always easy. The team is high on second year tight end Seth DeValve though. Nonetheless, the key here any of these receivers is Corey Coleman, but he is having a very quiet camp. At least it looks like they are going to get Duke Johnson more involved in the passing game. Kizer was my favorite quarterback in the draft and I love what the Browns are building and this team has young weapons, especially if Josh Gordon returns and Coleman emerges. It is probably a year until it all comes together though.
Blake Bortles, Jaguars – He's back as their starter over Chad Henne for the moment. The teams defense is great, which should keep them from playing behind as often and the drafting of RB Leonard Fournette signals they plan to take the ball out of Bortles hands and control the clock. All of this means less passing and less garbage time for Bortles, who usually only starts pointing up points in fourth quarter garbage time. The team’s head coach has also stated that ideally Bortles would have ZERO passes a game. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator, Nathaniel Hackett, took over mid season and is back with the team again. Under him the Jaguars improved their rankings in several categories including: time of possession (30th to 13th), goal-to-go efficiency (15th to fourth) and red-zone efficiency (16th to fifth). The Jaguars rushing attack also improved under Hackett from 30th in yards (72.6) to fifth (124.8) in rushing yards per game, 26th (3.79) to 13th (4.35) in yards per rush and from 32nd (38) to first (112) in rushes of four-plus yards. In his previous stint with the Bills in 2013, they ranked second in the NFL in rushing. His time as a starter looks like it has come to a near end.
Tom Savage, Texans – A brutal offensive line and neither of these guys is going to light it up, even if Watson has a Dak like rookie season. They also just lost Will Fuller and are now counting on Jaelen Strong and Braxton Miller to step up. Meanwhile DeAndre Hopkins play last year was a bit concerning and the team doesn’t have a truly great tight end, although two capable ones. Right now the team has stated that Savage is the starterm but I'd be more comfortable if it was Watson.
Mike Glennon, Bears - This team is a mess and there is serious dysfunction in this organization right now. I actually wouldn't be surprised if head coach John Fox got fired sometime during the season. The Bears do have a decent interior line, but both tackles are a concern. The weapons here are also suspect. Kevin White looked horrible last season during his short healthy stint and they let Alshon Jeffery walk. I'm higher than most on slot wide receiver Kendall Wright and Cameron Meredith looked pretty good last year, but most of his damage came out of the slot, so he will have to prove he can be just as effective on the outside. Even so, is he a truly elite WR1? This offense will run through running back Jordan Howard and Mitchell Trubisky could take over by mid-season, if not sooner.
Mitchell Trubisky, Bears - He looked great in his first pre-season action, although that was against backups. He's not the starter yet, but if he wins the starting gig, move him up a tier or two.
Deshaun Watson, Texans - Swap him with Savage and know that he's a gamer, so they could be okay.
Chad Henne, Jaguars - Unless they sign Kap, he should get some starts at some point this season. While an average plyer himself, he looked superior to Bortles in their pre-season games. Just keep in mind, this is a team that wants to play tough defense and run the ball. That said, Henne has weapons here in the passing attack, so he could be an okay streamer or two QB league depth play.
Nathan Peterman, Bills - The Bills are all of a sudden in a rebuild mode so there is a chance they either trad Tyrod Taylor or eventually bench him in favor of Peterman to see if they need to draft a new quarterback next year with an early pick. Think Alex Smith, a polished and smart quarterback without a big arm, although he is capable of making most throws.
Matt Moore, Dolphins – Swap him with Cutler and drop him a tier if he becomes the starter.
Josh McCown, Jets – He should start until he gets hurt, which is probably week 2. Can't see a reason they would want to start him either as they finish 0-16.
Paxton Lynch, Broncos – If he wins the starting job, move him up a tier. Looked horrible in camp and appears to be a total bust.
Colin Kaepernick – I’m not sure he finds a home this year. Perhaps he lands in Seattle as Wilson’s backup.
Cody Kessler, Browns - Probably their backup.
Brock Osweiler, Browns - Probably traded for a can of beans.
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