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Every year, we herald the arrival of a new class of tight ends who will make the position deeper and more productive than it has ever been before, and every year we end up disappointed at the results and left out in the wilderness if we did not land one of few elite performers at the position. 2013 offered hope in the arrival of Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas, and Jordan Reed, but it saw the continued decline of Antonio Gates and final season of hall of famer Tony Gonzalez. Could 2014 be the season that finally offers enough to go around at tight end? Let’s survey the tight ends from a fantasy perspective as they stand before the draft.
THE TE1
Jimmy Graham, NO
The possibility of Graham being re-classified as a wide receiver still looms, with an April 22 deadline for filing a grievance over being classified as a tight end in his franchise tag coming quickly. The Saints and Graham are still highly likely to come to some agreement on a new deal that splits the vast five-plus million dollar difference between the wide receiver and tight end tag numbers.
As far as Graham being on the top of the heap goes, he still had the best fantasy season of his career in 2013 despite a second-half that saw his number deflated by a foot injury. Graham was on a 98-1492-20 pace through the first eight games last year. With Lance Moore and Darren Sproles gone, he’ll get enough targets to come close to that if he can stay healthy (which has been a problem each of the last two seasons).
ELITE BUT STAR-CROSSED
Rob Gronkowski, NE
No, I’m not going to call Rob Gronkowski injury-prone. He played in 42 straight regular-season games to begin his pro career, then suffered a freak forearm injury on an extra point attempt to bring that streak to an end. After offseason back surgery and multiple surgeries on that forearm, he finally got back on the field in Week 7 and quickly resumed fantasy dominance before suffering a torn ACL in Week 14. In the six full games Gronkowski played, he notched a 30-560-4 line, which projects out to an elite 80-1495-10 season total. Of course, there are questions about whether he’ll ready for Week 1 again, and we know that Gronk won’t play til Gronk feels like he is ready from last year’s weekly drama surrounding his return. I’ll still be the one ready to jump into the pool in the third or fourth round, where he was regularly available last year with more ominous issues plaguing his health.
THE NEW GUARD/ STRONG TE1
Jordan Cameron, CLE
Julius Thomas, DEN
Cameron actually produced like a Graham/Gronk-level performer in a very short stint with Brian Hoyer, and he might be closer to the elite tier than we think. The Browns quarterback situation will improve this year, whether it is via Hoyer’s return or the drafting of a dynamic rookie at #4. Thomas was a touchdown maker last year, and that should continue with Eric Decker and his red zone presence gone to play for the Jets. This group stands out from the pack behind Graham and Gronk.
MID-LOW TE1
Vernon Davis, SF
Greg Olsen, CAR
Dennis Pitta, BAL
Jason Witten, DAL
Davis at least tied his career-high with 13 touchdowns last year, but he also caught only 52 balls. A gaudy 16.3 yards per catch number (also tying his 2010 career year) milked 850 yards out of those limited catches, but it’s still hard to see Davis eclipsing his 2013 overall fantasy numbers in any scenario. Michael Crabtree probably won’t miss more than half of the season this time around, the 49ers will remain run-heavy. Davis, usually an epic stud in the playoffs, only mustered 5 catches for 54 yards and two scores in three playoff games last year.
Olsen is a curious case because he is clearly the best pass catcher left in Carolina, which could set up him for an inordinate number of targets. Unfortunately for him, he is clearly the best pass catcher in Carolina, so he’ll likely be the focus of opposing defense’s coverage, which might nullify the added value of extra targets. He’ll probably end up around the 70-800-5 level he has occupied each of the last two seasons.
Pitta was signed a very lucrative deal for a tight end, and he gained a very tight end-friendly offensive coordinator in Gary Kubiak, but Kubiak also brought Owen Daniels with him, who should siphon off more production than Ed Dickson (now with Carolina) did while the two played together. He has a high floor, but he does not have a high enough ceiling to break into the top 4.
Witten had an up and down year that featured worthless weeks about one-third of the time. He had his second-best touchdown total in the last six years, but also his lowest target, catch, and yardage totals since 2006. He might be on the decline, with 2013 second-round pick Gavin Escobar potentially coming out to steal more of his production, but Witten will still likely finish in the top 8-10 tight ends.
This group is boring, but at least you know what you are getting.
BOOM/BUST TE1
Kyle Rudolph, MIN
Jordan Reed, WAS
Rudolph and Reed probably have higher ceilings than the above group, but there are big risk factors giving them very low floors.
Rudolph has yet to truly break out entering the fourth year of his career. Drafting him as your TE1 is counting on new offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s history of featuring tight ends in the passing game, but Rudolph will have to play at a higher level to deliver on that promise. It is also possible that Turner gives more to Adrian Peterson and Cordarrelle Patterson in the passing game instead of emphasizing Rudolph
Reed’s 2013 was cut short by multiple concussions, and he was generally nicked up for a lot of his rookie year. Durability is a concern, although the presence of DeSean Jackson should open up the middle of the field for Reed.
Upside drafters who don’t want to spend early on tight end will be targeting this group, so they could see ADP inflation as the season gets closer.
HIGH FLOOR LOW TE1/HIGH TE2
Heath Miller, PIT
Martellus Bennett, CHI
Charles Clay, MIA
Delanie Walker, TEN
None of this group will approach top five numbers, but they are all underrated and good picks to pair with a pure upside play. Miller has some hidden upside in year two removed from a late-season ACL tear in 2012, but he is getting into the autumn of his career. Bennett is steady and might have some hidden upside, producing better with Jay Cutler than he did with Josh McCown last year. Clay produced at his low TE1 ceiling last year, which could take a step back if the Dolphins can run the ball effectively this year. Walker came on in the second half of 2013, but like Clay, has a limited ceiling.
HIGH CEILING LOW TE1/HIGH TE2
Zach Ertz, PHI
Dwayne Allen, IND
Ladarius Green, SD
Travis Kelce, KC
The good news here is that down to TE15-18 on our list, and like last year, TE1 potential is still present on the board. This group oozes upside, but there are obstacles to consistent production in their way.
Ertz might become Philly’s version of Vernon Davis - low catches, but high touchdowns. He’ll still have to share a small passing pie with at least two strong wide receivers and pass catching running backs. Allen is clearly the best pass-catching tight end on the Colts, but he’ll share with three quality wideouts and another pass-catching tight end. Green will share with Antonio Gates on a team that skewed run-heavy as the season went on. Kelce has the highest ceiling as the possible #3 target in the Chiefs pass offense, but he underwent microfracture surgery last year.
If there is a Jordan Cameron or Julius Thomas breakout coming from low in the tight end ranks this year, it will almost certainly come from this group.
END OF ROSTER SLEEPERS
Jared Cook, STL
Tyler Eifert, CIN
Joseph Fauria, DET
Coby Fleener, IND
Mychal Rivera, OAK
Lots of theoretical upside here, but this group is just end of roster fliers until they give us reason to regard them as more. There’s physical talent there for Cook, Eifert, or Fleener to be TE1’s, but opportunity and past performance (in the case of Cook and Fleener) dictate that they are unlikely to deliver on that potential. Fauria was a touchdown maker as a undrafted rookie, but the return of Brandon Pettigrew really put a damper on his upside for 2014. Rivera is a fascinating player as the likely uncontested starting tight end on a team without a true #1 receiver or reliable running game. Head coach Dennis Allen called him a “foundation piece” earlier in the offseason.
Perhaps a member of this sleeper group could “wake up”, but don’t count on it.