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Depth at quarterback has always encouraged a "slow play" strategy at quarterback that entailed being one of the last, if not the last owner to take a quarterback in your league. 2014 presents unprecedented depth at the position, but as 2013 showed us, sometimes taking an early quarterback can still be rewarded. What is the early lay of the land this fantasy position in flux?
THE QB1
Peyton Manning, DEN
By no means do I expect Manning to repeat his record-shattering season of 2013. Replacing Eric Decker with Emmanuel Sanders could be a negative, and the Broncos are likely to tap the brakes on the pace and aggressiveness of the offense to create more balance. Still, you can’t do better than Peyton Manning heading into the 2014 fantasy season. He will probably go in the first two rounds of almost every draft. I won’t pay that price, but it may look like a smart move in hindsight.
STRONG QB1
Drew Brees, NO
Aaron Rodgers, GB
Matthew Stafford, DET
Matt Ryan, ATL
Tom Brady, NE
This group will give you a steady week-to-week scoring profile, and any could threaten to be QB1 this year. All have some risk of not delivering on ADP, but I wouldn’t talk anyone out of taking them at ADP if they are convinced a strong year is coming.
The Saints appear to be morphing into a more balanced offense much moreso than the Broncos, and offseason personnel moves indicate more of the Saints blueprint we saw in December and the postseason. This adds downside to Brees’ profile, but you just know that he will find ways to put his imprint on games and probably finish in the top five fantasy QBs yet again. Rodgers is still capable of putting up a game that no other QB matches in any given week - and making it look easy, but again, the fear of downplaying his role in a more balanced offense casts some shade on his fantasy profile. Brees and Rodgers are still likely to go in the 3rd or 4th round at the latest on reputation. Too rich for me, but again, possibly smart in hindsight.
Stafford is interesting and may be on my target list if the Lions get Mike Evans in the draft. He was basically elite and extremely consistent until a late-season nosedive, and he gained a QB-centric head coach. Ryan was valiant against poor odds last year, and he should be a steady midQB1 as long as the team doesn’t collapse around him this year. Brady was putrid while he endured growing pains for a young and undermanned group of skill players last year, but once he had a semblance of viable targets, he was an attractive fantasy player again in the second half of the season. If he gets back a healthy-ish Gronk by midseason, Brady will have elite upside for your fantasy playoffs. The trio of Stafford, Ryan, and Brady will come cheaper in drafts, likely fifth round or later (possibly MUCH later in the case of Brady), and they really aren’t that far off of the top three going much earlier in terms of track record and relative ceiling and floor.
BOOM/BUST QB1
Andrew Luck, IND
Robert Griffin III, WAS
Nick Foles, PHI
Cam Newton, CAR
Russell Wilson, SEA
Colin Kaepernick, SF
Just like last year, we have a group of 12 quarterbacks who are bonafide QB1s for fantasy, putting owners in the position of being the last to take a quarterback and still being able to win or draw at the position in most weeks.
Luck has gained Hakeem Nicks, will regain Dwayne Allen and Reggie Wayne, and might not get much help from the running game no matter how much Pep Hamilton wants it to happen. We all saw the numbers that he can create when he is unleashed in the playoffs. Griffin just hit the jackpot with DeSean Jackson. You can’t overstate how big an upgrade he gets in the deep passing game when RG3 goes from Aldrick Robinson to Jackson. Griffin will be healthier, and he won’t be swimming upstream against Shanahan. Foles was basically second to only Manning once he got rolling. Swapping out Jackson for Maclin hurts, but maybe not as much as we think. I still have a nagging feeling that he won’t get away with as much this year and the ride could be bumpier. Speaking of bumpy rides, Newton’s up and down fantasy profile isn’t going to change this year with nothing resembling a proven starting quality wide receiver on the roster. He’ll have massive weeks, but it could be a frustrating year. Wilson and Kaepernick will remain similarity frustrating with intermittent top 5 weeks being saddled with the reality of piloting defense/run-first teams that don’t need them to be fantasy stud centerpieces of the offense.
I would be ok rolling into battle with any of this group if the price is right, but I won’t reach for them before at least 7-8 of their peers are off the board, and maybe even 10-11 if I like what’s left at other positions. The thing is, when you factor in what is available in the next tier, taking one of this group is even a must.
HIGH FLOOR/LOW CEILING QB1
Jay Cutler, CHI
Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
Tony Romo, DAL
Last year, the refrain was that you could take any of the top 12 quarterbacks and be happy with your starter. This year, you can play chicken with the rest of your league, wait for a team or two to take a backup to try to stick it to you, and still end up with a quarterback who has a good chance of being in the top 12 in any given week.
Cutler is set up for QB1 success with the best pair of wide receivers this side of Atlanta and a quarterback friendly offense. Roethlisberger was a QB1 once he and the Steelers got on track in the second half of the season. Romo was a perennial QB1 until an oddly inefficient year for him despite facing the weak defenses of the NFC East. There is nothing scary about relying on any of this trio as your QB1, and all should be available in the double-digit rounds. It is at this point that the wisdom of adding a quarterback flex or second quarterback position to your home league may become apparent. If a fantasy team can take a starting quarterback around the same time teams are taking defenses and not be penalized for it, the old lineup needs to be updated.
HIGH FLOOR QB2
Philip Rivers, SD
Alex Smith, KC
Carson Palmer, ARI
Even if you lose out on the QB13-15 group above, the next tier isn’t really that far off of them. Rivers, Smith, and Palmer all have the potential to be solid mid-low QB1 producers. Rivers is likely to be held back by a run-heavy offense, but he showed early last year that he still has good fantasy numbers in him when he is asked to carry the team. Smith added rushing yards and played in one of the most uninspiring pass offenses in the league, but he finished with an 18-3 TD-INT ratio in the last seven games. Palmer added a top left tackle in Jared Veldheer, and he’ll also get back the #7 overall pick of 2013 - guard Jonathan Cooper. The running game in Arizona doesn’t seem capable of being the meat and potatoes of the offense, so Palmer could surprise while piloting a Bruce Arians offense.
UPSIDE QB2
Andy Dalton, CIN
Jake Locker, TEN
Johnny Manziel, ROOKIE
Ryan Tannehill, MIA
Geno Smith/Michael Vick, PHI
EJ Manuel, BUF
And it’s not until QB19 that we get to a top five finisher at the position from 2013 - Andy Dalton. The Bengals offense will downplay Dalton’s importance under new offensive coordinator Hue Jackson. Locker has upside under new head coach Ken Whisenhunt if he can stay healthy - he was mid-breakout when he suffered the freak hip injury that first derailed his season. Manziel may not start right away, but his fantasy-friendly skillset screams top 10 fantasy quarterback, even if he struggles. Tannehill’s offensive line can’t get worse, and he’ll have a more stable running back, in addition to another trip to the drawing board to get more out of Mike Wallace. Smith and Vick might seem to be overrated, but the Jets starting quarterback will be outside of the top 20 and probably given the green light to run. If it’s Vick, that means you get a quarterback reunited with the offensive coordinator that oversaw his best years in Philadelphia. If it’s Smith, that means you get a quarterback who beat out Vick, so he must be developing. Manuel has the lowest confidence of hitting of anyone in this tier, but the Bills did add Mike Williams to give him a legit jumpball threat downfield, and hopefully Manuel fine-tunes those running instincts this offseason. In all honesty, I wouldn’t be shocked if Thad Lewis has fantasy relevance this year.
BYE/INJURY/EMERGENCY FODDER
Joe Flacco, BAL
Eli Manning, NYG
Sam Bradford, STL
Josh McCown, TB
Even down to mid-20’s, you’ll see names at quarterback who can get you through a dry stretch. Flacco’s arsenal has been reloaded and his offense can not get any worse than it was last year. Manning is another bounce back candidate with a good schedule, and Bradford had a handful of QB1 weeks last year before he went down. We all know what McCown did with Chicago when he was called on last year, and the Bucs may give him another stud receiver at the 7th pick. Once again, you probably don’t need to roster a fantasy backup, when names like this should be on your waiver wire.
WARM BODIES
Ryan Fitzpatrick, HOU
Brian Hoyer, CLE
Matt Cassel, MIN
Chad Henne, JAX
Matt Schaub, OAK
For the same of completeness, I’ve included this group, but they are really only relevant in very deep leagues. That being said, Fitzpatrick had a flurry of QB1 weeks after he took over for Locker, and Hoyer was a solid fantasy option before he went down, so there is some usefulness here for quarterbacks that don’t get submarined by a first-round rookie. How deep is quarterback in 2014 fantasy leagues? So deep that even the bottom of the barrel starters present the ability to patch over rough spots at the position.