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The dust has settled from free agency (not that there was that much stirred up at running back, which now seems to be about as essential to teams as kickers), so we can look at the running back position for 2014 fantasy drafts with some expectation that it won’t look that different come August, pending some draft picks stirring things up and Chris Johnson deciding where he is going to sign.
Elite
LeSean McCoy, PHI
Jamaal Charles, KC
Adrian Peterson, MIN
Matt Forte, CHI
Not much nuance here, top-end talents in their prime in offenses that put them in the center of the game plan. Some will avoid Peterson because of his mounting injuries and mileage, but new offensive coordinator Norv Turner should set Peterson up for one of the biggest years of his career. This group should be gone by the middle of the first round in every draft.
Strong RB1
Marshawn Lynch, SEA
Demarco Murray, DAL
LeVeon Bell, PIT
Eddie Lacy, GB
Doug Martin, TB
This group doesn’t have elite ceilings, and they also have higher risk factors. Lynch could see Christine Michael breathing down his neck, Murray and Lacy have a history of injuries, Bell was overworked each of the last two years, and Martin’s 2013 left a bad taste in his owners mouths. All are still unquestioned lead backs with great talent, and they should be attractive targets near the turn. Murray and Martin are the most underrated and are still available in the second round of most early drafts.
Low-Mid RB1 with Risk
CJ Spiller, BUF
Arian Foster, HOU
Zac Stacy, STL
All three of these back have top five upside, but Spiller has only done it for one year and will split work with Fred Jackson yet again, Foster seems like a breakdown is imminent and he has lost the Kubiak running game context that maximized his talents, and Stacy’s value came from 25+ carry games that might be difficult to predict with minimal involvement in the passing game. These backs come with a second round price tag, with a possibility of falling to the early third. Spiller in particular is appealing as a target because he was a stud both times he had a week of rest to let his injured ankle heal last year. If he can avoid injury this year, he might return to his historically remarkable 2012 form.
Upside RB2
Alfred Morris, WAS
Ryan Mathews, SD
Giovani Bernard, CIN (PPR Special)
Montee Ball, DEN
Andre Ellington, ARI (PPR Special)
Reggie Bush, DET (PPR Special)
Steven Jackson, ATL
You’ll see this group distributed between the second and fourth round of drafts, with Bernard possibly sneaking into the late first in PPR leagues. Morris is obviously going to take a hit outside of the Shanahan system, but he is not Mike Anderson and should still be a low ceiling RB2 in any scenario. Mathews’ ceiling is also limited by the addition of Donald Brown, but he should still be a steady RB2 on a team that loves to run. He quietly hit his ceiling and stayed durable last year until the Chargers ran him into the ground in December (hence, the Brown signing).
Bernard and Ball will inspire good debate, and I will fall on the “pass in the first two rounds” side of that debate. New offensive coordinator Hue Jackson loves the power run game, and whether it’s Benjarvus Green-Ellis or a draft pick (or heck, Rex Burkhead), Bernard is going to be in a committee. He is not a battering ram and should not be used like one. Ball certainly has the automatic low RB1 opportunity that Knowshon Moreno converted to huge fantasy value last year, but I still don’t trust his play in the passing game enough to make him a cornerstone of my fantasy team.
Ellington and Bush’s usage profile should be similar to Bernard’s, and I’m not sure that they are less talented at this moment in time. I would prefer them a round later in PPR drafts. Jackson is going completely under the radar as a clear lead back who still managed the Turner-esque six scores in the last six games despite the Falcons’ offense struggling without Julio Jones. Jackson comes with injury risk, but if the Falcons bounce back, the touches (and touchdowns) will be there.
Enigmas Wrapped in Riddles
Ray Rice, BAL
Trent Richardson, IND
Clarity is nowhere to be found when deciding the right course of action with this not-so-dynamic duo. Rice was considered coming into last season, but a hip injury made him look like a back on his last leg. Now with a running game that could be revitalized under new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak, Rice could be a steal if it was really just the hip injury. Of course, Rice could also be facing time off after getting charged with a felony when he knocked his now-wide Janay Palmer unconscious. Richardson was considered an elite talent coming into last season, but after the Colts dealt a first-round pick for him, he tanked. The team still seems committed to him, and he could be a viable RB2 simply by taking what defenses that are spread out to stop a Colts pass offense that has all hands on deck (for now). Both of these
Low Ceiling RB2
Toby Gerhart, JAX
Ben Tate, CLE
Joique Bell, DET
Knowshon Moreno, MIA
Rashad Jennings, NYG
Frank Gore, SF
Chris Ivory, NYJ
This group has plenty of warts, but some of them will be available in the fifth round (or later), and on a weekly basis, they should be sufficient RB2s.
Gerhart’s lack of love is puzzling to me - he is situated as a lead back and has looked as good in his limited work to this point as Ben Tate, but Tate is going much higher in early drafts. Bell should lead the Lions in carries this year and there’s always that hidden RB1 upside if Reggie Bush misses time. Moreno and Jennings are underrated talents who should lead their backfields in touches, and Ivory actually stayed healthy in the second half of the season. Chris Johnson (who I will not rank until he lands somewhere) could take some touches away from Ivory if he ends up a Jet, but that could also keep Ivory on the field by limiting his workload, so it’s a reasonable trade-off. Gore has worries of Marcus Lattimore and Kendall Hunter continuing to cut into his workload, but the 49ers aren’t slated to pay Gore over six million dollars this year to fade into the background. If you don’t take a back in the first five rounds and and end up with two of this group, you can hang, and you’ll have a big edge at WR.
Flex Appeal
Stevan Ridley, NE
Shane Vereen, NE (PPR Special)
Pierre Thomas, NO (PPR Special)
Shonn Greene, TEN
Either of Ridley or Vereen could be a top 10 back in any given, but the Patriots uneven usage of their running backs makes it hard to draft either to start for your fantasy team. They will still be nice investments if they are around in the seventh or later (Vereen is going much higher). Thomas will be a steal in PPR leagues if he can reproduce his consistent involvement in the passing game. Darren Sproles is gone, so Thomas will be the primary back on receiving downs, but the Saints could continue to emphasize the running game and limit his role. Greene is set up as the primary back in Tennessee right now, so he’ll have production by default, but a draft running back is sure to join him, and I just can’t buy into Greene as a viable starting fantasy running back.
Upside Bench Plays
Christine Michael, SEA
Bernard Pierce, BAL
Marcus Lattimore, SF
David Wilson, NYG
Mark Ingram, NO
Khiry Robinson, NO
Michael, Pierce, and Lattimore are on “changing of the guard” watch. Wilson oozes talent, but he’ll share with Rashad Jennings in any scenario, although if he flashes, he will hold speculative value all year. Ingram and Robinson are candidates to be beasts of burden in a Saints offense that could feature the run. These backs are nice stashes with everyweek starter upside if things break right for them.
Solid Depth
Fred Jackson, BUF
Benjarvus Green-Ellis, CIN
Darren Sproles, PHI (PPR Special)
DeAngelo Williams, CAR
Jonathan Stewart, CAR
Danny Woodhead, SD (PPR Special)
Dexter McCluster, TEN (PPR Special)
I don’t want to rely on any of these backs on a weekly basis, but they will be serviceable bye/injury/emergency plays, and depending on injuries around them, they have the potential to be more. Seeing names like this likely on the board in the tenth round or makes it easier to break a tie against a running back in the early rounds.
Late-Round Fliers
Darren McFadden, OAK
Maurice Jones-Drew, OAK
Johnathan Franklin, GB
Lamar Miller, MIA
CJ Anderson, DEN
Latavius Murray, OAK
Stepfan Taylor, ARI
The Raiders running back situation obviously needs to sort itself out to clear up this group. The other names here represent talents who could push into larger than expected roles with great growth during their first full (in Miller’s case second) offseason in the NFL.
Handcuffs and Bench Filler
Knile Davis, KC
Andre Brown, HOU
Jacquizz Rodgers, ATL
Lance Dunbar, DAL
Donald Brown, SD
Bryce Brown, PHI
Robert Turbin, SEA
Roy Helu, WAS
LeGarrette Blount, PIT
Michael Ford, CHI
Jackie Battle, TEN
This group is roughly ranked in order of a combination of talent and likelihood that they get a shot because of an injury above them on the depth chart. I’m not a big fan of handcuffing until later in the season, but in deeper leagues, you can do a lot worse than filling out your roster with these lottery tickets. Obviously, the draft will change values and add names here.
This gets us 60+ deep into running backs, but more will be drafted in a lot of your drafts. Rookies will bulk up the ranks while knocking down a few names, and training camp injuries and sensations will cause more movement. On the whole, the running back group looks deep, and able to accommodate a wide variety of strategies at the position.
