Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Link to: QB Rankings - RB Rankings - TE Rankings
As the ranks of startable fantasy quarterbacks continue to get larger, they pull more wide receivers up with them to the level of fantasy relevance, or even greatness. You’ll be able to find viable options 40, or even 50 deep into your draft, so knowing the lay of the land and when to take advantage of upcoming tier breaks will be the key to maximizing value at wide receivers. There is no clear prescription to take wideouts in certain parts of your draft and avoid them in others when the overall group is this deep.
THE WR1
Calvin Johnson, DET
Some may warn you off of Megatron as WR1 on your board because he wore down last year, but don’t believe the hype. He missed two games and was clearly limited for three others, and he still had 84/1492/12.
ELITE WR1
Demaryius Thomas, DEN
AJ Green, CIN
Josh Gordon, CLE
Dez Bryant, DAL
Julio Jones, ATL
The order of this group will vary depending who you ask, and I won’t argue vigorously against a different sequence. I have Thomas first because of the quality of his quarterback and passing attack, Green second because of how consistent he has been with mediocre QB play, Gordon third because he has demonstrated the highest ceiling, but has some risk with a less stable QB situation and history, Bryant fourth because it seems like mounting nicks and bruises will limit him from hitting his true ceiling, and Jones fifth because he’s coming back from foot surgery - but know that Jones was on pace for the second-highest receiving yards total in NFL history through five games last year before he went down.
In start 3 WR PPR leagues, going WR/WR at/around the turn will be very tempting. You’ll have an edge over everyone at WR1 and WR2, and generally WR picks early tend to be very good at giving expected return on investment.
STRONG WR1
Brandon Marshall, CHI
Jordy Nelson, GB
Antonio Brown, PIT
Alshon Jeffery, CHI
This group has a slightly lower ceiling than the first group, but just slightly, so they present better value in the late second (or even third round) than the elite group presents in the late first/early second. The issues holding this group back from elite status are minor: Marshall and Jeffery share and Marshall lacks big splash plays, Nelson has failed to put that truly elite season together because of injuries to him or his quarterback, Jeffery and Brown lack an elite track record, and Brown is probably already at peak value. All are viable WR1s and somehow combining two at/near the 2-3 turn with an elite RB already in tow is a tremendous start.
Strong WR2
Randall Cobb, GB
Vincent Jackson, TB
Keenan Allen, SD
Victor Cruz, NYG
Andre Johnson, HOU
Roddy White, ATL
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
Cobb was well on his way to a 90-1200-8 type season before getting hurt, Jackson was pretty much there despite playing on a team rife with turmoil, Allen would have been there if he wasn’t a non-factor in the first three games, and Cruz would have been close if he hadn’t missed the last two games despite playing in a putrid offense.
Johnson and White have a higher ceiling, but lower floor because of age. Fitzgerald has failed to put together a WR1 year three out of the last four seasons, and Michael Floyd is coming on, so his ceiling is limited, but his floor might be a little higher than his older peers.
Any of this group represents a quality fantasy WR2 that should be available in the third, if not fourth (or even fifth for Cruz) round.
Low WR2 with Upside
Pierre Garcon, WAS
DeSean Jackson, WAS
Michael Crabtree, SF
Percy Harvin, SEA
Michael Floyd, ARI
I haven’t decided exactly what I think about how Garcon and Jackson will split targets and production in Washington, but it’s not a net positive for Garcon or Jackson compared to their 2013 results. Both should still be solid weekly plays, with Garcon being more consistent and Jackson offering more boom/bust scoring. If Robert Griffin III can regain his 2012 form, both could approach WR1 numbers. Crabtree and Harvin are stuck in run-first offenses, and Harvin’s durability is more concerning than ever, but if either finishes as a WR1, will anyone be surprised? Floyd’s second season breakout wasn’t as ballyhooed as Alshon Jeffery’s, but unlike Jeffery, he has plenty of room for growth with improvement on the Cardinals offensive line.
High Floor WR3/Flex
Dwayne Bowe, KC
Cecil Shorts, JAX
Marques Colston, NO
Anquan Boldin, SF
This quartet isn’t sexy, but they are being overlooked in early drafts. Bowe was looking more like himself as the season went on, and he’s still an uncontested #1 receiver with a decent QB. Shorts battled injuries all year, but he was on a strong WR2 pace in the first half of the season, and Justin Blackmon’s future is unknown. Colston looked like he hit the wall, but a week of rest rejuvenated him, and he could gain a few targets with the jettisoning of Lance Moore and Darren Sproles. Boldin was still very productive after Crabtree returned, and the 49ers paid like him they expect similar numbers to his 85-1179-7 line from 2013. While these guys aren’t cornerstones, they are going to be nice additions if you can get them in the seventh or later - and I’m pretty sure you’ll be able to.
High Ceiling WR3/Flex
Torrey Smith, BAL
Mike Wallace, MIA
Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN
I struggled with Smith’s place on this list, as the addition/return of viable complementary targets should offset the targets he’ll lose to said targets. He was on pace for a massive season in the first five games before the offense fell apart. I would be comfortable with him in the end of the Low WR2 with Upside group too. Wallace got open deep a lot more than his stats suggest, and if Ryan Tannehill gets just a little more accurate deep, a big season could ensue. Patterson is the best weapon in the passing game in Minnesota, and that is surely not lost on new offensive coordinator Norv Turner.
WR3/Flex Wild Cards
Julian Edelman, NE
Danny Amendola, NE
Wes Welker, DEN
TY Hilton, IND
Reggie Wayne, IND
Hakeem Nicks, IND
Riley Cooper, PHI
Jeremy Maclin, PHI
Eric Decker, NYJ
Golden Tate, DET
This group is perplexing, and they could be maddeningly inconsistent despite potential for big seasons if an injury puts them in the spotlight, or they summon up their top-end abilities with a stretch of good health.
Edelman can reproduce his big numbers if Amendola can’t stay healthy (again), but if Amendola is healthy for a good stretch of the season, Edelman may not have much use in fantasy leagues. Welker is in a similar role in Denver without competition, but mounting concussions and a dropoff as the season went on are both troubling developments.
Who knows whether Andrew Luck will continue to favor Reggie Wayne as he had in the past with Wayne coming off of a late-career ACL tear, the addition of Hakeem Nicks, and TY Hilton buttering Luck’s bread once Wayne went out. Add in the return of tight end Dwayne Allen, and it’s hard to be confident putting a top 25-30 WR pick chip on any Colts wide receiver, but all have great potential value based on talent and situation.
Cooper and Maclin also face unknowns in a run-heavy Eagles offense that will also use tight ends and running backs as frequent pass targets. Cooper benefited from DeSean Jackson’s presence leaving him in single coverage, and Maclin won’t be the same vertical or run after catch that Jackson was. Decker will be the focus of defensive coverage and it’s hard to say that Peyton Manning didn’t make his fantasy value. Tate is the current #2 target in Detroit, but his ability to produce bigger numbers in a bigger role is far from a given.
All of these picks are excellent speculative plays once you have your starting lineup filled out, but I wouldn’t want to have to count on any as everyweek starters right out of the gate.
Upside Bench WR
Terrance Williams, DAL
Markus Wheaton, PIT
Marvin Jones, CIN
Justin Hunter, TEN
Kenny Stills, NO
Emmanuel Sanders, DEN
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
Justin Blackmon, JAX
Tavon Austin, STL
Rueben Randle, NYG
This tier gave us Alshon Jeffery and Josh Gordon last year. The talent and situation are present for any of these receivers to make a leap to at least WR3/Flex-worthy numbers, if not more. Williams, Wheaton, Stills, and Sanders have the best quarterbacks. Hunter, Hopkins, Blackmon, and Austin have the best raw talent. Jones has already proven to be a touchdown maker. Randle is clearly at the bottom of the list based on how his 2013 trended down as the season went on, but he qualifies. Hopkins is another young receiver whose arrow was pointing in the wrong direction after a 21-332-0 second half of the season. Wheaton is probably the most overlooked in this group right now. Reserve a pick or two in the ninth round or later for this group.
Solid Bye/Injury/Emergency Depth
Brian Hartline, MIA
Kendall Wright, TEN
Steve Johnson, BUF
Jarrett Boykin, GB
Greg Jennings, MIN
Rod Streater, OAK
Doug Baldwin, SEA
James Jones, OAK
Steve Smith, BAL
These receivers should all have the opportunity to put up close to 1000 yards, and in Wright and Hartline’s case, very good PPR value, but none have the ceiling or big play ability to be a receiver you want to be an everyweek starter in your draft plan. Baldwin could be a surprise hit if Harvin can’t stay healthy, likewise with Boykin and Nelson/Cobb, so there is a little bit of gold to prospect here.
End of Bench Picks
Robert Woods/Mike Williams/Marquise Goodwin, BUF
Aaron Dobson/Brandon LaFell, NE
Kenny Britt/Stedman Bailey/Chris Givens, STL
Jerrel Jernigan, NYG
Jeremy Kerley/Stephen Hill, NYJ
Any receiver on the roster, CAR
Da’Rick Rogers, IND
Denarius Moore, OAK
Santonio Holmes/Sidney Rice, FA
Buffalo and St. Louis’s passing attacks are nothing to write home about, but they feature a lot of young talent who could step to the forefront this year. There’s an opening for a downfield receiver to have relevance in New England. Another Jets receiver could elevate his game with Eric Decker drawing #1 coverage. Jernigan quietly outplayed Randle at the end of the season. Rogers has a lot of talent and a great quarterback, but appears to be buried at the moment. Denarius Moore could still have some value, especially if he gets traded somewhere like Carolina, where someone has to catch passes from Cam Newton, right?
Et Cetera
This only gets us about 70-80 deep into wide receiver, and I know some of you are in leagues where even more than that will get drafted. Rookies will bulk up the ranks, but also cause a few marginal names to drop out. You can also add these players to your watchlist over the summer:
Ace Sanders, JAX
Andrew Hawkins, CLE
Andre Caldwell, DEN
Vincent Brown/Eddie Royal, SD
Lance Moore, PIT
Harry Douglas, ATL
AJ Jenkins, KC
Marquess Wilson, CHI