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True Fantasy Points: 2017 Tight End Projections

A stats-based guide for separating skill from luck in tight end projections.

This is the fourth and final installment in my True Fantasy Points (TFP) series for 2017. If you missed the previous installments or want more details of my statistical methodology, here are the relevant links:

  1. Quarterback TFP
  2. Running back TFP
  3. Wide receiver TFP

The stat rates we'll be using for tight ends are the same ones we used for wide receivers: receptions per route run (RPRR), yards per route run (YPRR), and touchdowns per route run (TDPRR). However, it's important to note that these stats regress to the mean at different rates for tight ends than for wide receivers. Namely, RPRR stabilizes more slowly (262 routes vs. 188), whereas both YPRR (318 routes vs. 351) and TDPRR (740 routes vs. 882) actually stabilize more quickly.


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