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True Fantasy Points: 2017 Quarterback Projections

A stats-based guide for separating skill from luck in quarterback projections.

Two years ago, I introduced my True Fantasy Points (TFP) system. For newcomers, my system is based on the fundamental truth that efficiency stats in football have a certain level of statistical noise (i.e., they're high-variance) and therefore uses math to properly regress players' Footballguys projections to the mean given their amount of projected opportunity (i.e., pass attempts, carries, and targets.). In the end, I use this calculation to compare players' "true," skill-based projected points with David Dodds' current projected points according to Footballguys standard scoring system. If you're still confused, click here and/or read the next paragraph.

Consider Eli Manning. In his Giants career, Manning's fantasy-relevant efficiency stats are 7.25 Yards per Attempt (YPA), 4.95% Touchdowns per Attempt (TD%), and 3.18 Interceptions per Attempt (INT%). Properly regress these values to the mean of all quarterbacks returning to their 2016 team, and Manning ends up with a 7.25 True YPA, a 4.91% True TD%, and a True 3.03% True INT%. Now, multiply these "true" efficiency stats to Dodds' current projection for pass attempts and apply the result to Footballguys' standard scoring system. The result: My TFP system projects 314.3 points for Manning, whereas Dodds projects 316.2 points, so he's currently "overrated" by 1.9 projected points.

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