Win. Your. League.

Receive 3 Free Downloads More Details

True Fantasy Points: 2017 Quarterback Projections

A stats-based guide for separating skill from luck in quarterback projections.

Two years ago, I introduced my True Fantasy Points (TFP) system. For newcomers, my system is based on the fundamental truth that efficiency stats in football have a certain level of statistical noise (i.e., they're high-variance) and therefore uses math to properly regress players' Footballguys projections to the mean given their amount of projected opportunity (i.e., pass attempts, carries, and targets.). In the end, I use this calculation to compare players' "true," skill-based projected points with David Dodds' current projected points according to Footballguys standard scoring system. If you're still confused, click here and/or read the next paragraph.

Consider Eli Manning. In his Giants career, Manning's fantasy-relevant efficiency stats are 7.25 Yards per Attempt (YPA), 4.95% Touchdowns per Attempt (TD%), and 3.18 Interceptions per Attempt (INT%). Properly regress these values to the mean of all quarterbacks returning to their 2016 team, and Manning ends up with a 7.25 True YPA, a 4.91% True TD%, and a True 3.03% True INT%. Now, multiply these "true" efficiency stats to Dodds' current projection for pass attempts and apply the result to Footballguys' standard scoring system. The result: My TFP system projects 314.3 points for Manning, whereas Dodds projects 316.2 points, so he's currently "overrated" by 1.9 projected points.


The full page you are accessing is only available to our Footballguys Insider PRO subscribers.

In addition to this page, we'll publish about 50,000 more pages of content this season that are just for our Footballguys Insider PROs. It's the ultimate edge to help you WIN YOUR LEAGUE.

ESPN's Matthew Berry says, "Footballguys Insider PRO is the best premium Football only site on the planet." We agree. To see more reasons why the Insider PRO is your ticket to the championship, click HERE.

Registration is simple and in seconds you'll be reading this article plus all the other Footballguys content available only to our Insider PROs. If you're uncertain about your current subscription status, click HERE.

Plus we have a MONEY BACK GUARANTEE so there's nothing to lose.