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True Fantasy Points: 2017 Running Back Projections

A stats-based guide for separating skill from luck in running back projections.

Yesterday, we published the first installment in my True Fantasy Points (TFP) series, which evaluated quarterback projections. (Click here if you missed it.) In Part 2 today, I'm moving on to running backs. To calculate these TFP projections, we need a few things. First, we need each player's data for the following rate stats:

  • Yards per Carry (YPC)
  • Touchdowns per Carry (RuTD%)
  • Receptions per Route Run (RPRR)
  • Yards per Route Run (YPRR)
  • Touchdowns per Route Run (TDPRR)
Second, we need the league averages for these rate stats. Third, we need math, which allows us to properly regress each player's actual rates toward the league average rate. Finally, we need David Dodds' volume projections (i.e., attempts and routes run). Put all of this together and apply Footballguys' standard scoring system, and we've got a system to evaluate how close or far away Dodds' point projection for a player is from that player's TFP, which represents what he should score based on his "true" yardage-gaining and touchdown-scoring skill. (If you'd like to read more about the method, click here or here.)
 

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