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True Fantasy Points: 2017 Wide Receiver Projections

A stats-based guide for separating skill from luck in wide receiver projections.

This is the third installment in my True Fantasy Points (TFP) series for 2017. If you missed the previous installments or want more details of my statistical methodology, here are the relevant links:

  1. Quarterback TFP
  2. Running back TFP

Below are the three efficiency stats I'll be using to evaluate wide receivers and calculate their TFP. For the edification of newcomers, I've also included the number of routes a given stat takes to represent less than 50 percent luck, and therefore become a reliable indicator of a wide receiver's "true" ability:

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