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Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Note that the links above are for 2013 articles. Please see the Week 17 2014 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2014 Week 17 updates.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week, along with the results and standings so far:
Staffer | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Aaron Rudnicki | 15-1 | PIT | GB | NE | SD | NO | DEN | BUF | KC | CIN | BAL | WASH | INDY | STL | MIN | NYG | DET | SEA |
Dave Larkin | 14-2 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | TEN | BAL | CLE | CIN | AZ | MIA | GB | STL | NO | NYG | PIT | HOU |
Jeff Haseley | 14-2 | NYJ | DEN | NE | PIT | SD | AZ | DAL | KC | CIN | BAL | NO | INDY | HOU | DET | NYG | GB | SEA |
Alessandro Miglio | 14-2 | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | NO | DEN | AZ | CLE | CIN | PIT | SF | INDY | HOU | GB | KC | JAX | SEA |
Dan Hindery | 13-3 | PHI | DEN | INDY | SD | GB | BAL | NE | KC | SEA | CIN | PIT | SF | MIA | NO | DET | STL | Z |
James Brimacombe | 13-3 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | GB | SF | SEA | KC | CIN | AZ | CLE | CHI | STL | DET | BAL | BUF | Z |
John Lee | 13-3 | PIT | TB | NE | SD | GB | TEN | WASH | CLE | CIN | AZ | NO | SF | INDY | NO | KC | SEA | BAL |
Matt Bitonti | 13-3 | NYJ | SEA | NE | PIT | PHI | DEN | BUF | KC | CIN | BAL | NO | SF | INDY | MIN | DET | GB | X |
Maurile Tremblay | 12-4 | DEN | AZ | NE | PIT | CIN | TEN | SEA | MIA | NO | PHI | WASH | DAL | DET | GB | BAL | BUF | HOU |
Jeff Pasquino | 12-4 | PHI | GB | NE | PIT | SD | DEN | CLE | KC | SEA | DAL | NO | SF | INDY | DET | BAL | STL | HOU |
Clayton Gray | 12-4 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | SEA | BAL | KC | CLE | AZ | WASH | INDY | MIA | GB | NYG | BUF | HOU |
Jason Wood | 12-4 | PIT | HOU | NE | ATL | SD | DEN | SEA | DAL | KC | BAL | CHI | INDY | MIA | GB | DET | PHI | CAR |
William Grant | 12-4 | NYJ | GB | NO | PIT | NO | CIN | NE | MIA | SEA | BAL | SD | INDY | HOU | DET | KC | DEN | DAL |
Justin Bonnema | 11-5 | NYJ | WASH | NE | SD | DET | TEN | CHI | TB | CIN | BAL | PIT | CHI | STL | SF | NYG | DEN | Z |
Steve Buzzard | 11-5 | PHI | DEN | NO | PIT | GB | SEA | NE | DAL | SF | AZ | SD | INDY | HOU | DET | BAL | STL | MIA |
Ari Engel | 11-5 | NE | NO | CIN | SD | SEA | DEN | DAL | DET | SF | BAL | NYG | GB | INDY | CHI | NYG | JAX | ATL |
Steve Holloway | 11-5 | CHI | DEN | CIN | PIT | NO | SD | BAL | DAL | KC | SEA | CLE | INDY | STL | SF | NE | MIA | HOU |
Mark Wimer | 11-5 | NYJ | TB | CIN | WASH | GB | TEN | CLE | DAL | KC | BAL | NO | PHI | INDY | DET | NE | CAR | DEN |
Andy Hicks | 10-6 | CHI | DEN | NO | SD | DET | CIN | NE | DAL | CIN | SEA | SF | INDY | PIT | GB | NYG | PHI | BAL |
Andrew Garda | 10-6 | PHI | AZ | MIA | PIT | NYG | TEN | CHI | CLE | CIN | NO | MIN | DEN | DET | STL | BAL | BUF | NE |
Bear Heiser | 8-8 | PHI | NO | NE | SD | PIT | GB | SEA | KC | SF | AZ | WASH | STL | NYG | SF | INDY | BUF | CHI |
Phil Alexander | 8-8 | PHI | TB | NE | PIT | DET | SD | AZ | MIA | CIN | BAL | DEN | KC | NYG | NYG | CAR | NO | MIN |
DISCUSSION
This year we have 22 staffers are in the pool, and if this was really a "one and done" tournament, it would all be over now after the calamitous Week 11 results. But we press on - and now only one staff member has one loss, Aaron Rudnicki, while others still try and catch up with just one week left. Week 16 was a disatrous week for the staff, which is pretty much par for the course this year in a rough season to pick winners and avoid upsets. Aaron may have this locked up with only three staffers (x) within striking distance with just two losses, but it will all come down to the final choices in Week 17.
Week 17 picks are mostly in (early Christmas deadline) and wow, do we have a big mix yet again. Eleven different teams were chosen amongst 16 picks of the 21 staffers, and only Houston (4), Seattle (3) and Baltimore (2) had more than one selection. All three teams wiht more than one pick are great choices with teams vying for the playoffs and heavily favored, and I am sure that more would have chosen them if the teams were still available (I was fortunate to still have the Texans). We also have some head-to-head choices amongst the single selections as both sides of the Chicago-Minnesota contest were selected, as were the Falcons and Panthers.
I hope that this article has helped your team win a league or two this year, and I look forward to helping you once again next year. Happy Holidays!
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: Last week was another stumble with the Rams call over the Giants. Tough week, no question. I thought I had all the right pieces in place - home team, better defense, favorable rusher - yet it didn't fall into place. That's what happpens in this maddening game.
Now with Week 17, we have a whole host of other issues. Some teams are just not motivated, while others are. Once again, I call attention to another article I write that covers all of the games - "For the Win", Week 17 edition. If there's questions of who I like, start with the Picks of the Week and work your way from there. Seattle is the clear first choice if you have them, then Houston, then Baltimore. If those are gone, New Orleans and Miami come next. After that it starts getting tricky. Denver should win, as should Green Bay, but I figure both of those are used as well. Only the Giants and the Colts are really solid picks after that. Washington and Chicago are two upsets I like, but then you are in hotly contested matchups after that point.
As always, you can ask Steve or myself any questions and use "For The Win" and our staff confidence picks for the week as well to help you.
Good luck!
Steve Buzzard: Last week was a rough week for a lot of entries as I lost my last team as well thanks to the Rams but luckily it was good enough for a tie. If you did manage to survive and still have someone to go with congratulations on a great season. At this point in the season I highly recommend working some type of deal with your competitors as long as there is five or less people left. It really stinks to lose week 17 when so many teams have uncertain incentives.
I will do a full analysis of what I think each team’s incentive is in my weekly DFS article later this week so if you have a later in the week deadline I would recommend checking that out for more details but as of right now I am going with the following priority level. If you don’t have the top 4 you are going to have to sweat more than others. My general plan in week 17 is to just take the team I think has the best chance of winning. However, if there are more than 5 teams left in your pool you need to consider who else you think others will pick. If you have a pool larger than that left let me know who some of the other teams have and I will be happy to help you out.
1) Denver – Win and they get a bye against the Raiders.
2) Seattle – Same as Denver but a tougher opponent in the Rams
3) Houston – Must win to have a chance at the playoffs
4) Baltimore – Same as Houston. I think Baltimore is the better team but so is Cleveland
5) Green Bay – This is where it starts to get a little trickier. I like the Packers to win this game at home as the better team at home but both teams will be highly incentivized to win.
6) San Francisco – The 49ers are playing poorly over the second half of the season but the Cardinals have very little incentive and have been playing even worse than the 49ers.
7) Dolphins – Neither the Dolphins nor the Jets have anything to play for and the Dolphins have been fading fast. There is a good chance your decision will come down to the Dolphins and Vikings, see below. My slight tie breaker is that the Dolphins are better than the Vikings more so than the Bears being better than the Jets but to be honest I wouldn’t have a problem going either route and don’t feel comfortable with either.
8) Minnesota – Since being eliminated the Vikings have been playing like an average team where as the Bears are playing like one of the worst teams in the league and have given up on their season.
9) Atlanta – Finally I think you can make a legitimate argument to include the Falcons as a pick as both the better team than the Panthers and playing at home. The biggest concern with this game is that both teams have been nearly as unpredictable as you can possibly be.
Best of luck! If your season continues into the playoffs for tie breakers feel free to email me for any questions you may have.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.