For the Win: Week 17

Photo: Andrew Weber, USA Today Sports

Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.

Yet another mediocre-to-bad week in Week 16, with lots of upsets and bad outcomes.  Needless to say, this has been a tough year.  Now, for those of you who have stuck with me for years know that I tend to do very well in Week 17 and in the playoffs, so hopefully that trend continues.  The trick for the season finales is finding teams’ motivations.  So let’s end this on a positive note, shall we?  Let’s get started:

Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.

CAROLINA (+4) at ATLANTA
Get your popcorn ready for an NFC South epic finale – okay, maybe “epic” is a stretch between two sub-.500 teams, but one of these two is heading to the playoffs and hosting a Wild Card game next weekend.  Will it be Carolina or Atlanta?  With Cam Newton back and the Falcons’ suspect defense, the Panthers could easily take this one even with the game in Atlanta.  The Falcons are 5-0 in the division and could rebound to win the woeful division by going 6-0, no small feat.   Everyone looks to be relatively healthy so give me Carolina and the points, but this one could go either way in what should be an entertaining contest.   PICK:  Panthers

BALTIMORE (-9) vs. CLEVELAND
The Ravens looked terrible last week in Houston, but Cleveland did not look much better in Carolina.  Now the Browns are likely starting either an injured Brian Hoyer or Conner Shaw (an undrafted free agent from South Carolina who some say reminds people of Jeff Garcia, at best).  Baltimore is at home and needs to win to get in the playoffs (with San Diego losing).  Torrey Smith is hot and Joe Haden is questionable to play.  Also, Joe Flacco needs just over 300 yards to reach 4,000 for the season.  Give me Baltimore here.  PICK:  Ravens

WASHINGTON (+7) vs. DALLAS
This is pretty simple for me – Dallas has nothing to play for in this one.  Win or lose, they are hoping both Seattle and Arizona lose later in the day to get a bye for the Cowboys.  Otherwise, Dallas plays next weekend as the #3 seed.  The only outcome that impacts Dallas is if Detroit and Green Bay tie and both Seattle and Arizona lose, which would make Dallas the #1 seed instead of #2 should Dallas win.  Forget all that.  Dallas will rest starters and use this as their virtual bye week, while Washington will “gear up for their rivals” in a meaningless contest where Robert Griffin III can shine – and leave Washington fans wondering even more about their team’s future.   PICK:  Washington

INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) at TENNESSEE
Indianapolis also has virtually nothing to play for this weekend either, as they will be the third or fourth seed depending on if Cincinnati wins and moves Denver from #2 to #3 if the Broncos lose.  Either way, the Colts have no control over their seed – they will play next weekend against the loser of the Bengals-Steelers on Sunday Night Football.  So the Colts could take the week off, but they have a bad taste in their mouths after a terrible game in Dallas last Sunday and want to right their ship.  Even if Matt Hasselbeck finishes out this game, Tennessee is bad enough to lose by a touchdown to Indianapolis’ second string.   PICK:  Colts

NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) at TAMPA BAY
The Saints suffered a bad and disappointing loss last week that knocked them out of the playoff hunt, but now they get to visit the hapless Buccaneers in sunny Tampa Bay to finish out the year.  Drew Brees is gunning for another 5,000 yard season (he needs 365 yards) while Tampa Bay will do all they can to lose this game and lock up the top draft pick next spring.   That’s enough motivation for both for me to say New Orleans wins by at least 10.    PICK:  Saints

NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) vs. PHILADELPHIA
How the Eagles have tumbled down in December, my oh my.  What a terrible way to end the year for Philadelphia, with a bad loss in Washington last Saturday and now a visit to the Giants to close out the year.  Eli Manning has been hot of late thanks to Odell Beckham Jr., who needs another 90-yard game to set another record for rookie receivers (tying Michael Irvin, I believe) and I think Beckham tops 100 yards and finds the end zone here, along with Rueben Randle.  The Eagles will barely show up for this one and the Giants will get a meaningless win.  PICK:  Giants

HOUSTON (-9.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
The Texans need to win and hope both Baltimore and San Diego lose to make the postseason.  Job one will be to beat Jacksonville, which I fully expect to happen thanks the Houston defense led by J.J. Watt.  Jacksonville is playing out the string again and will be lucky to get more than 13 points, while the Texans should easily get at least 24.  PICK:  Texans

SAN DIEGO (+3) at KANSAS CITY
The Chargers finished off a massive comeback over the 49ers last Saturday night where Philip Rivers rediscovered his passing game abilities.  Kansas City cannot figure out how to use wide receivers as part of their offense.  Alex Smith is going to need to be replaced next year, and I just do not see how a team can make the postseason with no passing touchdowns to wide receivers in a pass-happy league.  Throw in that the Chiefs are thin against the run and I like San Diego for a mild upset to make the playoffs.   PICK:  Chargers

MIAMI (-5.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS  
Last week it was Ryan Tannehill throwing for four touchdowns that led the Dolphins to win a shootout with the Vikings at home, while the Jets managed to lose another contest despite their best efforts against New England.  Miami is playing better, at home, with Mike Wallace and Lamar Miller both hot and with the incentive of a winning record for the year, even if the playoffs are no longer a possibility.  With the head coach issue of Joe Philbin resolved, I like the Dolphins to win by at least a touchdown to round out an up-and-down season, while the Jets limp home once again in what should be Rex Ryan’s final game as head coach.  PICK:  Dolphins

CHICAGO (+6.5) at MINNESOTA
On the surface it would appear that Minnesota has all the motivation here, with the Vikings trying to win another game late in the year after a close loss to Miami last week and Teddy Bridgewater playing well along with Matt Asiata.  That’s not what I expect, however, as I see the return of Jay Cutler under center for the Bears as the big story here.  Cutler has a lot to prove in this game, first by sticking it to Mark Trestman for benching him in the first place, and then to rack up numbers to get to 4,000 yards passing on the year (he needs 360).  Also, Matt Forte has 94 receptions and the record for running backs is 101, and Martellus Bennett is within reach of 1,000 yards (he needs 143).  I see the Bears throwing 50+ times on Sunday with Cutler sneering his way to a victory.  PICK:  Bears

NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) vs. BUFFALO
New England just lost all motivation to play on Sunday with Denver losing on Monday night, as that loss finalized the Patriots getting the #1 seed in the AFC.  Buffalo also just lost on the road to Oakland to lose all of their playoff chances, so they also will be on the downswing.  I think Bill Belichick will have Tom Brady and company play this game straight until early in the fourth quarter, which should be plenty of time for the Patriots to win by double digits.  Next week is the bye week, so this is a chance to tune-up the offense some after a close win against the Jets last week.    PICK:  Patriots

DENVER (-4.5) at OAKLAND
The Raiders have been competitive lately, beating Buffalo last week, and Denver is on a short week after a bad loss in Cincinnati.  Now Peyton Manning must win on Sunday to earn the Broncos a bye and for Denver to finish the season sweep of the AFC West.  I like Denver to step up some here, right Manning’s performance woes of late in the first half and ride C.J. Anderson and Juwan Thompson the rest of the way to a double-digit victory and the #2 seed.   PICK:  Broncos

ARIZONA (+4.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
How important is the quarterback position in the NFL?  Enough to give the 11-4 Cardinals underdog status on the road in San Francisco this week against the 7-8 49ers.   San Francisco has little to play for (8-8 record? Big Deal.) and Jim Harbaugh is on his way out – or so everyone thinks.  I do not believe that Logan Thomas is not that bad, though, having seen him play quite a bit at Virginia Tech.  He is actually very mobile and can make most of the NFL throws, and he has capable receivers and a decent defense as well.  As for the 49ers defense, they just blew a huge lead at home against San Diego, and I think they will close the year with a whimper.  Give me an 11-4 team getting points and with a bye week on the line every time.  PICK:  Cardinals

GREEN BAY(-7.5) vs. DETROIT
Green Bay heads home to host the Lions in a contest that both of these teams have been planning for since Thanksgiving, when it became clear that Week 17’s finale could be for the NFC North.  Not only is that on the line, but there are scenarios where either team can get either a bye or home field (#1 seed) for the NFC playoffs.  Green Bay has put up some very dominant performances at home this season, while Detroit has not had a very good 60 minute performance in weeks, aside from a win at home over the woeful Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  I expect Aaron Rodgers to throw a ton and dissect the Detroit secondary, racking up over 30 points at home, a number that Detroit has reached only three times all year long.  The loss of Detroit’s center Dominic Raiola (suspended one game for stepping on a Chicago player, DL Ego Ferguson) also does not help matters for the Lions, nor does playing outside at Lambeau Field.  Green Bay 41, Detroit 27.  PICK:  Packers

SEATTLE (-12.5) vs. ST. LOUIS
Seattle was the best team last year and won the Super Bowl, and they look every bit like that team once again right now.  Seattle dominated Arizona last week and I expect more of the same against the Rams at home.  The NFC West and the #1 seed go to Seattle with a win, and I think Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch get the job done by a good margin, 27-10.   PICK:  Seahawks

PITTSBURGH (-3) vs. CINCINNATI
By the time this game kicks off for Sunday Night Football, the results will be in from the Denver game and we will know what is fully at stake.  Assuming Denver wins, this game is for the AFC North division, and the winner takes that prize and a home game next weekend.  The loser gets a trip to Indianapolis next weekend, so this one matters a good amount for both teams.  While not a true playoff contest, Cincinnati has never fared well with these types of stakes on the line and I expect the Steelers to load up the box against Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard to force the Bengals and Andy Dalton to throw.  That usually is a bad recipe for success.  Ben Roethlisberger will move Pittsburgh against the Bengals and use Le’Veon Bell for both rushing value and play-action to give Pittsburgh lots of offense.  I like the home team to win here in a very entertaining contest.   Steelers 34, Bengals 27.   PICK:  Steelers

BEST BETS

Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.

* ONE STAR GAMES *

• INDIANAPOLIS (-6.5) at TENNESSEE
• NEW YORK GIANTS (-3) vs. PHILADELPHIA
• SAN DIEGO (+3) at KANSAS CITY
• CHICAGO (+6.5) at MINNESOTA  
• DENVER (-4.5) at OAKLAND

FOR THE WINS:

• WASHINGTON (“FOR THE WIN” +240) vs. DALLAS
• CHICAGO (“FOR THE WIN” +230) at MINNESOTA  
• DETROIT (“FOR THE WIN” +260) at GREEN BAY (Good odds, hard to pass up)

TEASERS:

4-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):

• NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) at TAMPA BAY
• BALTIMORE (-9) vs. CLEVELAND
• HOUSTON (-9.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
• GREEN BAY(-7.5) vs. DETROIT  

 5-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):

• NEW ORLEANS (+2.5) at TAMPA BAY
• BALTIMORE (-3) vs. CLEVELAND
• HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
• GREEN BAY(-1.5) vs. DETROIT
• INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) at TENNESSEE  

6-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):

• NEW ORLEANS (+2.5) at TAMPA BAY
• BALTIMORE (-3) vs. CLEVELAND
• HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
• GREEN BAY(-1.5) vs. DETROIT
• INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) at TENNESSEE
• WASHINGTON (+13) vs. DALLAS  

7-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (9-1 ODDS):

• NEW ORLEANS (+2.5) at TAMPA BAY
• BALTIMORE (-3) vs. CLEVELAND
• HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
• GREEN BAY(-1.5) vs. DETROIT
• INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) at TENNESSEE
• WASHINGTON (+13) vs. DALLAS
• MIAMI (+0.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS    

8-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (13-1 ODDS):

• NEW ORLEANS (+2.5) at TAMPA BAY
• BALTIMORE (-3) vs. CLEVELAND
• HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
• GREEN BAY(-1.5) vs. DETROIT
• INDIANAPOLIS (-0.5) at TENNESSEE
• WASHINGTON (+13) vs. DALLAS
• MIAMI (+0.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS   
• NEW YORK GIANTS (+3) vs. PHILADELPHIA

** TWO STAR GAMES **

• BALTIMORE (-9) vs. CLEVELAND
• WASHINGTON (+7) vs. DALLAS
• NEW ORLEANS (-3.5) at TAMPA BAY
• HOUSTON (-9.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE
• MIAMI (-5.5) vs. NEW YORK JETS   

3-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):

• NEW ORLEANS (+2.5) at TAMPA BAY
• BALTIMORE (-3) vs. CLEVELAND
• HOUSTON (-3.5) vs. JACKSONVILLE

*** THREE STAR GAMES ***

• None this week.

PICKS OF THE WEEK:  Baltimore, Washington, New Orleans, Houston, Miami