Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
Week 1 is one of the toughest to handicap in the NFL as we have not really seen any true live action. The preseason is the preseason and none of that matters. Some teams play vanilla offense and/or defense so the talents and the intangibles are where you really have to make your picks. Let's get started.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) BALTIMORE (+8) at DENVER
The Ravens had to break with recent tradition of the Super Bowl champion opening the next NFL season with a Thursday Night Football home game thanks in part to a scheduling conflict with the Baltimore Orioles. Denver now gets the home opener to start Week 1, hosting the team that unceremoniously bounced the Broncos out of the postseason last January in a dramatic double overtime contest. While many will be billing this game as a “revenge” game for Peyton Manning and company, there is rarely much carryover from a prior season, especially with a Week 1 contest. Sure, this game could have AFC playoff implications, but the bigger stories will be how the Baltimore offense and defense looks with so many new faces from less than 12 months ago. Denver will play a fast tempo and run Baltimore ragged, racking up a later score to take home a win – but with Champ Bailey out I think the Ravens can cover. A tough game to call overall, but I like the home team due to speed of play and altitude to win, but over a touchdown to give to the Super Bowl champs does not sound like a good idea. Take the Ravens to cover with Denver’s defense not at full strength (Von Miller suspended, Champ Bailey out). Denver 27, Baltimore 20. PICK: Ravens
NEW ENGLAND (-9) at BUFFALO
It might be EJ Manuel or Jeff Tuel under center for the Bills in Week 1, but the reality is that it really does not matter. Tom Brady is on a mission this year to prove that he does not need Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker or Brandon Lloyd to run a high-powered offense. Look for the Patriots to come out of the chute with plenty of offense, pushing the Bills to a two- or three-score deficit in the first half and rendering their likely one-dimensional offense to having to ask an inexperienced quarterback to throw far too much in the second half. This one likely will get ugly. New England will be 1-0 in the AFC East after a very one-sided victory in Buffalo. PICK: Patriots
SEATTLE (-3) at CAROLINA
This one is a tough call. I like the Seahawks to win quite a bit this year, but a road game against Cam Newton poses some unique challenges. Fortunately for Seattle, they can play Carolina much like they game plan against the 49ers, a team Seattle will host in Week two. Carolina has just one receiver and a tight end, just like San Francisco, and both the 49ers and Panthers have a quarterback who can both run and throw well. DeAngelo Williams is no Frank Gore (although Williams has a higher top gear), so this game will be a good gauge of how Seattle will be ready for San Francicsco next week. I like Seattle to win, a little closer than some might think, but Carolina’s skill players are not enough of a threat to challenge the Seattle defense. PICK: Seahawks
CINCINNATI (+3) at CHICAGO
So before I pick games, I like to guess what the point spread or “line” is going to be. I thought the Bengals would be GIVING a field goal in this game, not GETTING one, and I am thrilled to see that number. The Bengals have solid offensive options and an underrated defense, while the Bears have Brandon Marshall who continues to struggle with hip issues. Jay Cutler will have to show that he is ready to move behind a re-built offensive line and try and keep feeding Matt Forte and tight end Martellus Bennett, because the Bengals will try and double cover Marshall all game. I like the Bengals to start the year quite hot with a big road win in Week 1. PICK: Bengals
MIAMI (+1) at CLEVELAND
Cleveland is a better team this year on paper, but they will still be without Josh Gordon for two weeks. Miami needs to go on the road here and pick up the win if they want to be in the playoff hunt and they have a killer stretch over the next four games (at Indianapolis, vs. Atlanta, at New Orleans, hosting Baltimore). The Dolphins need to win two or three games before their Week 6 bye, and this has to be one of those games. The Browns have limited firepower after Trent Richardson, so Miami is the team more likely to win in Week 1 between these two. PICK: Dolphins
DETROIT (-4) vs. MINNESOTA
I will say it right now – I am not a huge fan of this pick. Detroit finished in last place in the NFC North last year, but they need to get off on a fast start with a divisional home game against Minnesota here in Week 1. It will definitely come down to how the Lions can defend against Adrian Peterson, and they would be wise to put eight in the box and force Christian Ponder to move the ball down the field. The Lions will use a healthy dose of Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson to try and pull off the home victory, and I like the Detroit defense more than Minnesota’s ability to keep Detroit from scoring early and often. I will take the Lions by a touchdown, 24-17. PICK: Lions
INDIANAPOLIS (-9.5) vs. OAKLAND
This just in – the Raiders are terrible. Not just bad, but truly terrible. They are picking up players discarded by other teams left and right in order to try and cobble together some depth behind an offensive line that is downright offensive. Darren McFadden may suit up for Week 1, but he might regret that decision by the end of this Sunday. The Colts will have all of their receivers and tight ends ready to go for Andrew Luck, who may have to rely on them a little more than usual with Ahmad Bradshaw not quite at 100%. It should not matter as Oakland is moving around two deck chairs on the Titanic deck at quarterback labeled Matt Flynn and Terrelle Pryor. Oakland is going to struggle to top 14 points, while the Colts may break the 40 point mark. I will go conservative and say Indianapolis 34, Oakland 13. PICK: Colts
KANSAS CITY (-3.5) at JACKSONVILLE
Kansas City is going to surprise some people this year, mostly because Andy Reid is going to try and outscore most of the opposition. When you get to play Oakland and San Diego twice each, a few extra wins here and there can start to push your record to the .500 mark for the season. This is the first of such contests, as the Chiefs get to visit the hapless Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. With Justin Blackmon suspended for four games and Blaine Gabbert being, well, Blaine Gabbert – the Chiefs should be able to move the ball well all day long with Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe. The Chiefs need this game as they have a tougher schedule the rest of September with three consecutive NFC East games in Weeks 2-4, including a short week road trip to Andy Reid’s former stomping grounds in Philadelphia. Look for Kansas City to push hard to get to 1-0 and buffer a rougher next few weeks of the season. I will pick the Chiefs by at least a touchdown and likely double digits in this one. PICK: Chiefs
NEW ORLEANS (-3) vs. ATLANTA
Can you say “shootout”? This game has a very high total on the Las Vegas board (53.5 to 54.5 points), and rightfully so. The Saints defense is very questionable right now, but Drew Brees can and will put up a ton of offense most every week. I expect nothing less with Sean Payton back on the sidelines after being suspended last year, and with the Saints hosting the divisional rival Falcons in Week 1 for their home opener, the crowd will be in the game and going crazy right away. I like this one to be a high scoring affair with the Saints getting a strong start to the season with three of their first four games at home. Saints 34, Falcons 27. PICK: Saints
TAMPA BAY (-3) at NEW YORK JETS
Tampa Bay will run, run and run some more with Doug Martin, and then Josh Freeman will carefully pick apart the Jets secondary – but likely not attempt too many passes. The Jets are expected to be one of the worst teams this year, and with Geno Smith getting the start for Week 1 with Mark Sanchez hurt, Smith will face a tough defense to try and figure out including the newly acquired Darelle Revis. Revis will be more than ready for this one, and will be leading his defense towards many turnovers and big plays to set up the Buccaneer offense with a short field. The Jets will struggle to win most every week this season, and Week 1 is no different. Tampa Bay wins handily, although the Buccaneer offense may not put up big numbers because the Jets will barely be able to get any offense at all. I see something like Buccaneers 23, Jets 6. PICK: Buccaneers
PITTSBURGH (-7) vs. TENNESSEE
Everyone is focused on the running game for the Steelers, but the Titans should focus more on Ben Roethlisberger and his top three wide receivers. Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders and rookie Markus Wheaton will stretch the Tennessee defense and help Roethlisberger to put up great offensive numbers in Week 1, something Jake Locker will struggle mightily to keep pace with on the road. The Steelers will pressure Locker and likely force a few turnovers while Pittsburgh plugs the line to keep Chris Johnson in check. Seven points is a lot to give, but the Steelers need an impressive showing at home before heading out onto the road to face a tough Bengals team in Week 2. I like the Steelers by about 10 or 13 points here. PICK: Steelers
SAN FRANCISCO (-4.5) vs. GREEN BAY
This is not an instant replay, although these two teams did square off in Week 1 last year at Lambeau Field. Of course there was a playoff game back in January in San Francisco between these two teams as well, so these two squads are hardly strangers. The problem for Green Bay is that they still might not have an answer for Colin Kaepernick, who did not start for the 49ers until October last year. San Francisco will have to run quite a bit with only Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin as viable receivers, but Frank Gore and Kaepernick can provide big offensive sparks. Green Bay has been working on its ground game led by rookie Eddie Lacy, who will get plenty of work to balance out a passing game that will just be getting Jordy Nelson back to action. The game should see lots of points on the score board, but I like the San Francisco defense much better and the 49ers will need to win at home this week before traveling up to Seattle for a huge Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 2. PICK: 49ers
ST. LOUIS (-4.5) vs. ARIZONA
The Rams have been working hard on their new offense, and with Jared Cook at tight end and Daryl Richardson starting in the backfield, Sam Bradford has looked very comfortable in the second year of Brian Schottenheimer’s offense – the first time Bradford has been in the same offense in consecutive seasons as a pro. Arizona is in the midst of yet another rebuilding effort, this time with Carson Palmer under center, but the offensive line is still very rough and the running back situation (led by Rashard Mendenhall) is iffy at best. The Rams should get out of the gate in Week 1 with a win by more than a touchdown to open the season, which they greatly need before two road games at Altanta and Dallas in Weeks 2 and 3. PICK: Rams
DALLAS (-3) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
The Cowboys get to host the first of two prime time NFC East clashes, this one between the Giants and Dallas in Texas in the big matchup on Sunday Night Football. Dallas is much healthier than the Giants throughout their respective lineups, and coupling that with the home field I tend to side with the Cowboys here. Dallas is definitely in a “win now” mode (what else is new), and the Giants have lost several key pieces on offense (Andre Brown, Victor Cruz) and defense (safety Stevie Brown), plus Jason Pierre-Paul is also not at full strength. I like Tony Romo to carve up the Giants’ secondary and lead the Cowboys to a 1-0 start. PICK: Cowboys
(Monday) WASHINGTON (-3.5) vs. PHILADELPHIA
Who doesn't love double-header Monday Night Football? Maybe football widows, but odds are they aren't reading this column, right? The second half of the NFC East prime time weekend even concludes with the Redskins hosting the Eagles in Washington. Robert Griffin III returns to action, and this game has the makings of a celebration of the new era for Washington with their multi-dimensional quarterback. Speaking of new eras, Philadelphia will debut Chip Kelly’s new offense to the NFL, and Michael Vick and LeSean McCoy will look to run the ball all over Washington D.C. This should be a very entertaining and fast-paced game, but ultimately Washington will start the year with a home victory over the Eagles, who will show improvement on offense but a much weaker defense that still needs another year to develop to a competitive level. PICK: Redskins
(Monday) HOUSTON (-4) at SAN DIEGO
Houston starts the year on the road way out west in San Diego, where the Chargers will host the Texans in the second half of the Week 1 Monday Night Football double-header. Both teams have already been bitten by the injury bug, but the Texans (Arian Foster, back; DeAndre Hopkins, concussion) are starting to get healthy just in the nick of time. No such luck for San Diego, who has already lost Danario Alexander (knee) for the year. Compounding problems for Philip Rivers and the Chargers is one of the worst offensive lines in the league, which will not help much when they have to try and slow down J.J. Watt. Matt Schaub will keep the Texans on track to get a solid Week 1 win as the Texans hope to win the AFC South once again and make a Super Bowl run. Take the Texans on the road to win in a lackluster contest to close Week 1 action, 30-13. PICK: Texans
Best Bets
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) BALTIMORE (“FOR THE WIN” +330) at DENVER
- TAMPA BAY (-3) at NEW YORK JETS
- CINCINNATI (+3) at CHICAGO
- CINCINNATI (“FOR THE WIN” +140) at CHICAGO
- 6-POINT TEASER: TAMPA BAY (+3) at NEW YORK JETS (UNDER 46.5)
- 6-POINT TEASER: ST. LOUIS (+1.5) vs. ARIZONA (UNDER 47.5)
- 6-POINT TEASER: (Monday) HOUSTON (+2) at SAN DIEGO (UNDER 50.5)
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 6-POINT TEASER: NEW ENGLAND (-3) at BUFFALO (UNDER 57)
- 6-POINT TEASER: INDIANAPOLIS (-3.5) vs. OAKLAND (UNDER 53)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- None this week.
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: New England Patriots, Indianapolis Colts, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Cincinnati Bengals
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.
