There are all kinds of games that you can play with football as the backdrop. Fantasy football is the King of the Hill, but it is not the only game in town. Office pools are all over the place with varying formats -- picking every game winner either against the spread or by ranking each game on a point scale (also known as a confidence pool). Another favorite game that is not quite as common but that has been around for quite a while is the Eliminator or Survivor pool.
The reality television show "Survivor" has been on 28 seasons (believe it or not, the anniversary of the first Survivor season finale just passed, on August 23rd - way back in 2000), and the premise has been the same since the beginning -- Outwit, Outplay, Outlast. The concept is pretty simple, and has been around for ages -- last man (or woman) standing wins. That is the idea behind Eliminator or Survivor pools -- everyone is on the same footing when the season starts, and all you have to do is to pick one team to win their game that given week. If you are right, you move on to the next week, but if they lose -- you are eliminated from the pool. The other trick is that once you pick a given team, you cannot use them again the rest of the way, making it progressively harder to find that winning team each week.
Variations on this theme do exist, including pools where you can "buy back in" after one misstep and also the inverted method where you have to pick a team that will lose that week instead of win. All of them are valid ways to play, but for simplicity I am going to focus on the simplest version here -- win or go home every week. Also for ease of description, I will simply call this contest a Survivor pool.
Earlier this year, I wrote an article on these types of leagues (Survivor Pool Strategy), and back then I promised readers that I would follow up that article with a “Master Plan” prior to Week 1 for this coming NFL regular season. This is that article. It would be a good idea to refresh your minds as to the “Rules of Engagement” I have learned over the years when it comes to playing in these types of contests, and I will refer back to those rules when I outline this plan.
THE PRESEASON MASTER PLAN
As I mentioned earlier, I have learned a lot of lessons on what to do (and what not to do) when it comes to being competitive in Survivor pools. Having played in these types of contests for nearly two decades, I have come up with a number of rules that I try to adhere to when it comes to developing my plan to be both competitive and keep my entry alive in these contests, year after year. That was the main subject for the first part of this series, but now it is time to apply some of those rules to develop my first take at a Master Plan. Keep in mind, all good plans have some wiggle room and ability to change, so nothing is set in stone – but if I was forced to pick 17 winners in a row before the league kicks off after Labor Day, this would be my best attempt. Here we go:
Applying the first rule:
First rule of Survivor pools -- pick good teams. Yes, this is the kind of deep analysis you can expect from this article. Seriously though, this sounds simple, but it is important to start with your list of teams that you want to use this season. I tend to start by looking at the teams that made it to the playoffs from the year before and also any team that had at least nine wins a year ago.
OK – Starting with good teams, I picked out the teams with at least eight wins last year. That led me to the following teams:
AFC – New England (12), Miami (8), New York Jets (8), Cincinnati (11), Baltimore (8), Pittsburgh (8), Indianapolis (11), Denver (13), Kansas City (11) and San Diego (9)
NFC – Philadelphia (10), Dallas (8), Green Bay (8.5), Chicago (8), Carolina (12), New Orleans (11), Seattle (13), San Francisco (12) and Arizona (10)
That list gives me 10 AFC teams and nine NFC teams – 17 in all – which is a pretty solid start to figuring out my Survivor Plan.
Now let’s look at Rule #2:
Find bad teams -- Similar concept to the first rule, but this is actually a bit harder. Teams that are terrible last year often make major changes because they have to and possibly because they changed over coaches, personnel or both. If you can predict the 3-5 worst teams for the coming year, though, you will be well on your way to winning your Survivor pool.
Well, I believe that the three worst teams for 2014 will be the Bills, Raiders and Vikings. Those are the teams I want to check out first each week of the schedule. I was a little hesitant about Buffalo as I think that they are improving, but these three teams certainly have starting quarterback issues, which is a great starting criteria for finding bad teams. I have two additional tiers of likely bad teams, starting with four more that could struggle - Jacksonville, Houston, Tampa Bay and the Jets. The Jets are included because I do not like their offense or quarterback situation much. A third tier exists this season which is Dallas and the Giants - two teams I expect to also have issues on defense and struggle overall, but their veteran quarterbacks could pull out a win any given week. Oneother team worth a mention is Tennessee, which has an unproven backfield and a questionable QB in Jake Locker. Matchups may dictate a look at the Titans as well.
Most of the games I will target for my Survivor plan will be against the Raiders and Vikings, and quite possibly Jacksonville early in the year. I will also consider Tampa Bay until they show that they are competitive this season (which means I may avoid them early). Further, any game I choose that is not against one of these four teams, I will take a hard look at the starting quarterback for the team I am picking against.
And then, Rule #3:
Start planning the entire season, almost. I like to look at the season in six stages, breaking up the NFL regular season into 3-game groups from Week 1 onward. That makes for five groups (Weeks 1-3, 4-6, 7-9, 10-12 and 13-15) plus the last two weeks of the year. I leave Weeks 16 and 17 in isolation for two reasons. First, I hope that the contest I am playing is over by then, and I don't have to worry about those weeks. Second, those two weeks are now riddled with divisional matchups, which make them very hard to pick. I know going in to that phase of the regular season that I will have to be making difficult selections, and I will leave those for the end game of the contest. If I think that the contest will last to Week 16 or 17, I will start planning for that eventuality around Week 13 or 14.
My plan here is to script out the first 15 games, and then play it by ear for the last two weeks when the NFL Schedule is riddled with divisional games. By then I hope that (A) the contest might be over, (B) the good teams (and bad teams) will present themselves quickly, and (C) I will still be alive and kicking with just two games to go.
Here are the games I liked at first for planning out my strategy, focusing solely on the 15 winning teams I liked:
Philadelphia – Week 1 (hosting Jacksonville). This one is easy - the Eagles get Chad Henne as the starting quarterback for the Jaguars, who travel to Philadelphia to open the season. The Eagles are already double-digit favorites, the biggest Week 1 spread, and I will start the season with a pick of the Eagles.
Dallas – Not really trusting the Cowboys this year, a team that can score 48 points and lose (yes, that really did happen last year). The best option for Dallas is a home game against intrastate rival Houston, which could be more competitive (read that as "trap game") that people might expect. The other choice would be Dallas "at" Jacksonville in Week 10, which is a game scheduled for London.
Green Bay – Week 2 hosting the Jets looks like the clear pick here. This is the only home game for the Packers in the first four weeks (and the Jets' only road game in the first four weeks), and interconference games are usually good times to take the better team at home.
Chicago – Week 1 hosting Buffalo is an interesting choice, but I am going with Philadelphia there. Weeks 7 (home against Miami) and 12 (home against Tampa Bay) are my next two choices, and I like the Bears at home in Week 7 as this is their only home game in a four game stretch.
Carolina – I think Carolina could be a big mess this year, so I really don't want to depend on the Panthers. Maybe I would use them in Week 15 (home against Tampa Bay) or Week 16 (home against Cleveland) but those are far from locks.
New Orleans – Week 5 is the target here, and it was not an easy game to find. Hosting Tampa Bay in Week 5 looks like a bad call (divisional game), but it is right before the Saints' bye week and it is Tampa Bay's third consecutive road game. That's usually a great time to pick the home team, and I see New Orleans winning easily.
Seattle – Seattle at home is usually a very good idea, and I like Week 9 (Oakland) and Week 10 (New York Giants). I might pick either one, and let other teams' best picks decide which one to go with here.
San Francisco – The 49ers have a tough schedule, and several good teams visit San Francisco at the new Levi's Stadium this year. The one game I see is hosting Washington in Week 12.
Arizona – The Cardinals are a tough call this year. They won 10 games (very quietly) last season, just missing the postseason thanks to being in the toughest division in the NFL. Week 6 hosting Washington might be the choice if I need the Cardinals.
New England – Week 3 hosting the Raiders. The game starts early too (10 AM Pacific), which helps.
Miami – I do not trust the Dolphins this season. Next.
New York Jets – See Miami, above. Next.
Cincinnati – Week 3 (Titans at home) sounds tempting, but have the Patriots circled there and I like the Bengals in Week 9 in a home game against the Jaguars. This could be a tricky one as it is a sandwich game in two respects - middle of three home games, bookended by two divisional games - but Jacksonville could be a mess by then. I could always take Seattle here and decide later on a Week 10 choice, such as Dallas "at" Jacksonville in a game in London.
Baltimore – The first game I like is Week 4, hosting Carolina in a revenge game for Steve Smith. It is also the only Ravens' home game in a four week stretch, which Carolina will just be coming off a prime time Sunday Night Football home game against the Steelers. I might have other options those weeks, so I also like Week 10 (home against Tennessee) and Week 15 (home against Jacksonville).
Pittsburgh – Week 4 looks inviting at home against Tampa Bay, which should be a favorable matchup plus it is the only Steelers home game for a five game stretch. Tampa Bay faces their second of three road games in a row and may be struggling early in the year.
Indianapolis – The Colts look to have a good schedule, but there are some tricky matchups early in the season. I like Weeks 11-13, starting with a road game in Cleveland after Indianapolis' bye (but I usually don't like road games). The next two games are home against Jacksonville and Washington, two more likely selections.
Denver – Another tough schedule year for a good team, which happens in the AFC West. I like Week 12 (home against Miami) and even better, Week 14 (home against Buffalo).
Kansas City – Week 8 is my tough call for the Chiefs, which might look like a strange decision if you consider the Rams as a cross-state rivalry. The good news is that St. Louis hosts Seattle in Week 7, and the Seahawks usually are very physical and beat up a team for the following week. Weeks 9 (home against the Jets) and Week 15 (home against the Raiders) might seem better, but Oakland / Kansas City is a divisional matchup which has some rivalry aspects to it.
San Diego – Week 4 hosting Jacksonville is the first option here, especially if Henne is still the starter for the Jaguars. The other option in Week 11 (hosting the Raiders), and the Chargers are just coming off of their Week 10 bye and Oakland will have just played Denver. I usually like to avoid divisional matchups, but this one I might need for a tricky week.
With 17 teams and some choice games selected, let’s see how this looks as far as a weekly plan:
Week 1 – Philadelphia (vs. Jacksonville)
Week 2 – Green Bay (vs. the Jets)
Week 3 – New England (vs. Oakland) - home opener for the Patriots
Week 4 – Pittsburgh (vs. Tampa Bay), San Diego (vs. Jacksonville), Baltimore (vs. Carolina)
Week 5 – New Orleans (vs. Tampa Bay), Dallas (vs. Houston)
Week 6 – Arizona (vs. Washington)
Week 7 – Chicago (vs. Miami)
*Week 8 – Kansas City (vs. St. Louis)
Week 9 – Cincinnati (vs. Jacksonville), Kansas City (vs. the Jets), Seattle (vs. Oakland)
Week 10 – Seattle (vs. the Giants), Dallas ("at" Jacksonville in London), Baltimore (vs. Tennessee)
*Week 11 – San Diego (vs. Oakland) - warning, divisional game
Week 12 – San Francisco (vs. Washington), Denver (vs. Miami), Indianapolis (vs. Jacksonville)
Week 13 – Indianapolis (vs. Washington)
Week 14 – Denver (vs. Buffalo)
Week 15 – Baltimore (vs. Jacksonville), Kansas City (vs. the Raiders - warning, divisional game), Carolina (vs. Tampa Bay)
Week 16 – Carolina (vs. Cleveland)
Note that the first team listed is now my "plan". I am locked in with the Eagles, Packers and Patriots in Weeks 1-3, and then I plan on using every playoff team from last year in the first 15 contests and save Carolina in case I need them in Week 16. The only four non-playoff teams I have chosen all have eight or more wins from last year - Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Chicago and Arizona. The combined schedule also faces Jacksonville three times, Oakland twice, Washington twice and Tampa Bay twice - which sounds like a dream lineup for the most part. Weeks 8 and 11 (marked with an asterisk in my plan) look to be the toughest calls, so I will look to make mid-season adjustments assuming I get through the first 3-4 weeks unscathed.
PARTING THOUGHTS
Survivor pools are a lot of fun, and it makes for a great contest to keep you interested in the NFL for most -- if not all -- of the regular season. Finding a contest like this and potentially winning the prize is a great way to enjoy the sport we all love in yet another way, so go ahead and play in one this year. With any luck, proper planning and the advice you read here will get you a long way towards winning that pool.
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.