The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
Quick links to similar articles:
|Value Plays||Overvalued Players||Deep Sleepers|
|Running Backs||Running Backs||Running Backs|
|Wide Receivers||Wide Receivers||Wide Receivers|
|Tight Ends||Tight Ends||Tight Ends|
Player Receiving 6 Votes
Demaryius Thomas, Denver
Feery: Despite winning the Super Bowl, the Denver Broncos offense took a leap backwards last season from a fantasy perspective. Nowhere was that more evident than in the production of Demaryius Thomas, who saw his touchdown numbers nearly cut in half from 2014, and his receiving yardage drop by more than 300 yards – despite receiving only eight fewer targets. The Broncos enter 2016 with Mark Sanchez currently projected to be the starter. He may actually prove to be a decent fit in a game manager type role while Paxton Lynch develops, but that doesn't exactly point to a bounce in productivity for Thomas. He's currently being drafted ahead of receivers such as T.Y. Hilton and Jarvis Landry, both of whom have very real chances to out-produce him in 2016. Thomas definitely remains a fantasy asset, just don't be overly optimistic about his production this season.
Haseley: My interest in Thomas is more of a fade of the Denver passing game than Thomas' ability as a receiver. I am concerned that a rookie quarterback will fail to produce enough scoring opportunities to make Thomas an elite receiver that he is being drafted as. If Mark Sanchez is under center, the likelihood is improved, but still not where I would like it to be in order for Thomas to see consistent production every week. I see a drop off in receiving yards, receptions, and most importantly, touchdowns.
Hicks: With the departure of Peyton Manning it is expected that Demaryius Thomas will have a little bit of a drop off, but Emmanuel Sanders a big decline. Why? Demaryius Thomas, for a variety of reasons did not look the same receiver as before he signed his contract extension. With Mark Sanchez or Trevor Siemian under center, I expect Sanders to be the more productive as he can play a greater variety of routes, especially of the shorter variety. With the Broncos expecting to run it more as well, the big play that Thomas brings may be severely diminished. If Paxton Lynch starts, all bets are off and Thomas will hold even less value.
Kuczynski: Thomas was once viewed as one of the elite WRs in the league after he had eye popping numbers during Peyton Manning's first few years in Denver. Last year he had a good amount of catches and yards, but his touchdown numbers were way down (only one in the first half of the season) and he completely disappeared in certain games (particularly the playoffs) by either not being able to get open or having costly drops. Not only that, most of his numbers came in the only 4 games he surpassed 100 receiving yards. This year the QB situation is really murky with Mark Sanchez and Paxton Lynch as the possible starters for the Broncos and Gary Kubiak finally implementing his conservative run-first offense. Thomas should be looked at more as a WR2 this year despite the name recognition.
Simpkins: There's no doubting that Thomas will be the primary pass catcher in his offense. The question is, how many passes will he catch in a ball-control offense that prefers to run? Neither Mark Sanchez nor Paxton Lynch are going to be asked to lead a high-flying passing attack when the defense and the run game are getting the job done. Right at the end of the second round, there are other receivers going around or after that point who possess both similar floor and greater upside. Names such as Sammy Watkins, T.Y. Hilton, Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin, and Michael Floyd come to mind.
Wimer: Peyton Manning is retired, and Thomas may well have to work with rookie Paxton Lynch as his quarterback for much of the season - the other option is Mark Sanchez. With inexperienced/sub-par quarterbacking, I'm not banking on Thomas to return to his Manning-era glory days. Thomas is off my draft boards at wide receiver as of July 1 unless he comes at a very reduced cost (unlikely given his high ADP) - I don't want to roll the dice on him/his situation this year.
Player Receiving 4 Votes
Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina
Alexander: Benjamin finished as a top-15 wide receiver in his rookie season but needed a massive 29.3% target market share to make it happen. His current ADP assumes Benjamin will once again see close to 150 targets because his career 6.95 yards per target average suggests it's the only way he'll sniff 1,000 receiving yards. It's more likely Benjamin sees closer to 120 targets this year, which caps his upside in the WR26-30 range. If the buzz from OTAs can be believed, Devin Funchess will command more targets in his second season. Ted Ginn Jr. proved deserving of his role as Carolina's primary deep threat. And last year's team target leader, Greg Olsen, is locked into his usual 120+ looks from Cam Newton. Speaking of Newton, we should expect his league leading 7.1% touchdown rate to normalize a bit this season, which is more bad news for Benjamin, who contrary to popular belief is not exactly a red zone monster. Benjamin converted only three of his team-leading 17 red zone targets into touchdowns in 2014 -- a full 5% below the league average.
Bloom: Benjamin wasn't as good as his rookie numbers indicated, with about half of his scores coming in garbage time and very inconsistent play held up by the Panthers having little else to rely on at wide receiver. The Panthers now appear to be a lot deeper at the position, and they are a winning team. Benjamin was a one-year wonder at Florida State who reportedly gained some weight when he wasn't playing. He's not the surest thing to come back the same from a torn ACL. There are better uses of a third-round pick.
Howe: His rookie year boasted strong fantasy production, but a deeper look into the numbers reveals warts. Benjamin was inefficient with his opportunity, committing costly mistakes and relying heavily on garbage time for his high production. The garbage time days are likely over in Carolina, and the numerous mouths to feed (Greg Olsen, Devin Funchess, Ted Ginn) make it unlikely Benjamin will again excel in Carolina's run-heavy scheme.
Wood: My issue with Kelvin Benjamin relates more to the tier he's being drafted in rather than the player's abilities. Benjamin was the 16th ranked receiver as a rookie, but missed his 2nd year with a torn ACL. Now that he's fully healthy, is it too much to expect Benjamin to at least reprise his rookie heroics? I'm afraid so, simply because the Panthers are a far more balanced offense now than they were in 2014. Ted Ginn scored 10 touchdowns last year. Devin Funchess is having a great offseason. Greg Olsen remains elite. I just don't see Benjamin getting the target volume to finish as a Top 20 option; caveat emptor.
Player Receiving 3 Votes
Julian Edelman, New England
Pasquino: No wide receiver in New England is going to perform at very high fantasy levels this year. Tom Brady is going to have a pedestrian season (by modern standards, no more than 4,000 yards and about 25 touchdowns) thanks to a four-game suspension, and I predict none of his receivers get 1,000 yards. Only Rob Gronkowski will have significant fantasy value, and all of the wideouts - Edelman, Danny Amendola, Aaron Dobson, Nate Washington - or anyone else they throw out there - will be barely worth a roster spot this season.
Simpkins: He's being taken in late round three, evidencing that owners are valuing Edelman as if Brady will play all sixteen games. Not only is that unlikely with a four-game suspension looming, but it's also doubtful that Brady and the passing offense can continue at the clip to which we've become accustomed. A second procedure on the same foot that caused him to miss seven games last year is another reason to shy away from drafting Edelman at his current price.
Waldman: When healthy, Edelman has performed as a strong fantasy starter. Unfortunately, he has only stayed healthy enough for a top-24 season at his position in 2013. Although more capable than Wes Welker of production as an outside receiver, Edelman's production will suffer like Welker's did when the Patriots went with a two-tight end base set. With Martellus Bennett in the fold, look for Bill Belichick to reprise this multiple scheme at the cost of Edelman's top-20 potential at his position. Expecting more than WR3 production is a stretch as long as Rob Gronkowski and Bennett remain in the lineup.
Dorial Green-Beckham, Tennessee
Bloom: Green-Beckham hasn't proven anything, and he's in an "exotic smashmouth" offense that likely will use five different receivers and have a tight end as the #1 target along with a desire to go run heavy when the game script allows it. His offseason hasn't exactly inspired confidence, as Green-Beckham is running behind fifth-round Tajae Sharpe for motivation. An eighth-round seems like a lot to spend in hopes that Green-Beckham will truly break out this year.
Fahey: Dorial Green-Beckham didn't know where to be as a rookie and he regularly failed to play with intensity. Green-Beckham's stamina needs to be proven in a full-time role, although that full-time role may not be as big as was initially anticipated. The Titans plan to run a lot with Mularkey specifically discussing using Mariota on designed runs. That will eat into Green-Beckham's target share on an offense that added Rishard Matthews to Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker as its top receivers.
Wood: I just don't see it. Green-Beckham was a part-time, one-dimensional player as a rookie and yet he's being drafted as a high upside WR3 in many drafts. The Titans aren't going to have a top-tier offense, and yet there are way too many mouths to feed to expect Green-Beckham to see a consistent increase in his target rate. The team invested heavily in the ground game (DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry), signed Rishard Matthews in free agency, and still has plans for Kendall Wright, Harry Douglas and rookie Tajae Sharpe. As if that weren't enough mouths to feed, Delanie Walker remains the team's top target. Green-Beckham may have moments, but I would prefer a handful of other receivers being drafted in the same vicinity.
Allen Hurns, Jacksonville
Holloway: Hurns, like Allen Robinson, saw much greater success and efficiency in 2015 than the year before. His yards per catch rose from 13.3 to 16.1 and he had 13 more receptions on only eight more targets. His touchdowns also climbed from 6 in his rookie season to 10 last year. Expect less yards per catch and touchdowns for this season and possibly fewer catches as the Jaguars pursue a more balanced offense as their defense improves greatly.
Ingel: In a season where the Jaguars played from behind a ton and had to air it out early and often, Hurns finished with only 64 catches. He did have 10 touchdowns, but touchdowns can be a fluky thing in the NFL and with Julius Thomas fully healthy and with a better defense, look for that touchdown total to drop.
Simpkins: He started his career as an undrafted free agent. He was a top-fifteen fantasy wide receiver in his second NFL year. There's no argument about Allen Hurns being a fantastic example of perseverance. However, with the Jaguars' improved defense and a quarterback who isn't making good field decisions, the Jaguars offense is due for some regression. Allen Robinson is the focal point and will get his share through pure volume. However, it is Hurns who stands to suffer statistically. He's just not worth the late fifth-round pick that an owner must pay to acquire his services for 2016.
Allen Robinson, Jacksonville
Hester: Robinson made a leap in 2015, but such leaps can be the confluence of multiple factors which aren't all repeatable. For one, Robinson's team passed heavily in the red zone due to a poor running game. Second, they had offense-friendly game scripts due to a poor defense. Third, tight end Julius Thomas – a significant red zone weapon – was injured for much of the year and only received nine red zone targets all season (Robinson had 21). Jacksonville signed Chris Ivory, added multiple defensive players via the draft and free agency, and should have Thomas back this season. Robinson is still likely to be a top-12 fantasy receiver, but his ceiling is probably baked into his WR7 cost already. I'd prefer Jordy Nelson, Alshon Jeffery, Keenan Allen, and Mike Evans – all of whom are being selected later.
Holloway: There is a lot to like about Allen Robinson and his prospects going forward, but also a few reasons to pump the brakes. His team added several defensive playmakers so they likely will not be behind as often this year. Robinson scored 14 touchdowns a year ago and averaged 17.5 YPC. Those numbers will be very difficult to maintain. He's very good, but perhaps rated a little too highly for 2016.
Wood: Allen Robinson was probably the player most responsible for my 2015 fantasy success. I drafted him on a majority of my teams – expecting a breakout – and got more than I could've hoped for (80 receptions for 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns). I understand the desire to slot Robinson into the elite tier; it's human nature. Yet, Robinson is being overdrafted by a round or two. He's not a first round pick in spite of his obvious talents. The Jaguars are set for regression this year for myriad reasons, from Bortles' shaky mechanics and lucky outcomes to the complete inability to run the ball to the woeful defense. As if that weren't enough, Robinson's fantasy value really came from the 14 touchdowns, which is an anomaly. I don't to tell you how infrequently receivers score 10+ touchdowns, but even fewer did so at a higher rate; Robinson caught touchdowns on 17.5% of his receptions. Only 14 receivers in the last decade had 10+ touchdowns and a higher TD% -- can you guess what their TD% was the following seasons? 8.2%. Those 14 receivers averaged just 4.7 touchdowns the following season. In other words, no matter how talented you think Allen Robinson is – and I think he's very talented – he stands an EXCELLENT chance of material regression.
Players Receiving 2 Votes
Corey Coleman, Cleveland
Hicks: Cleveland may be years from fielding a competitive lineup and expecting a rookie receiving group to produce a fantasy starter is a bit rich. Coleman gets the attention due to his draft slot, but the Browns won't hesitate to keep him off the field if others perform better. Coleman projects as a guy that may take a year or three to develop and for him to have any chance, the Browns need some kind of stability. Coleman is a risk too far for the price you will have to pay.
Waldman: I love Coleman's long-term upside. He's lightning quick, strong enough to work through physical play, and he has developed a couple of moves to work through press coverage at the line of scrimmage while he was at Baylor. But he has more to learn before he becomes a consistent and effective weapon as an outside receiver. Despite his physical talent and what he has learned, physical play disrupts his concentration on vertical routes. When Coleman faced tight coverage down field he had difficulty working through it and catching the football. I believe this issue is something he'll overcome, but he has to learn how to maintain position on a defender and not lose his concentration. Right now, I think his concentration wanes because he has been used to dominating most opponents physically and the encounter is surprising. He'll face a lot more of these situations this year and I believe a year of acclimation will be needed. Rating him above all other rookie WRs is a mistake of athletic ability over skill.
Stefon Diggs, Minnesota
Bloom: Diggs caught the fancy of the fantasy world when he had a mid-season hot streak when the rookie wide receiver class was riddled with injuries after we had come to enjoy rookie wideouts as key parts of our winning fantasy teams in 2014. Once he cooled off, Diggs got over eight PPR points in a game only twice in the last nine games, and the addition of Laquon Treadwell will offset Diggs' possible development going into his second year. He's not worth a pick in the ninth round.
Kuczynski: Diggs looked like a waiver-wire hero last year we he broke out into the scene week 4 as the Vikings top target, but it was very short lived. His streak of consecutive big games came to an end week 8, and he was never really able to capture it again. This season, Minnesota spend their first round pick on Laquon Treadwell who will have every opportunity to establish himself as the number 1 target in the passing game. The offense might prove to not have enough balls to go around considering everything revolves around Adrian Peterson, and over the last two seasons Teddy Bridgewater has only averaged 3100 yards and 14 TDs. Diggs should not be seen much more than a low end WR3 or a flex based on matchup.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay
Tefertiller: While we love Evans' upside, it is difficult to project the receiver who finished as WR26 in points per game in year two as a professional to suddenly jump up the WR11 where he is drafted. This is one of those times where fantasy owners overdraft a young player with upside. We believe Evans will eventually become a fantasy WR1, but he is priced (pick 19 overall) close to his potential, and not expected 2016 production. For those expecting a bump in production for the young pass catcher, Alshon Jeffery was the WR11, scoring a whopping 3.5 points per game more than Evans.
Wimer: Evans underwhelmed last season while enjoying a huge number of targets - 148 targets but only 74 receptions (50%) - and his TDs plummeted from 12 to just three. While some of the problems were due to having a rookie quarterback under center, I am concerned that Evans doesn't have the work ethic to rise to the top ranks of his position. I'm cool on his prospects as the lead receiver for the Buccaneers despite the likelihood that he'll receive a huge number of targets again this year. Evans showed us last season that targets don't necessarily translate into top-flight fantasy production.
DeSean Jackson, Washington
Parsons: Jackson has long been an acquired taste for fantasy owners. He is still lingering on the radar (WR37) despite missing six games in 2015, logging less than five targets per contest, and 0.4 touchdowns per game despite Kirk Cousins turning around the Washington offense. Jackson has risk from every angle – Is he on the physical downside? Will Kirk Cousins repeat a strong performance to buoy production from the unit as a whole? The targets are loaded with Josh Doctson drafted in the first round, Jordan Reed a top tight end when healthy, Jamison Crowder coming off a strong rookie season, and Pierre Garcon still viable on short-to-intermediate routes. Jackson offers little upside as a WR4.
Simpkins: At an early eighth-round purchase cost, owners should not even think of taking DeSean Jackson. Not only will he turn 30 years old in season, but he has also dealt with a slew of injuries over the course of his career. A nagging hamstring injury was the latest reason that kept him out for six games in 2015. The team drafted Josh Doctson, who has a high probability of getting starting snaps this year when the injury history of both Jackson and Pierre Garcon are considered.
Brandon Marshall, NY Jets
Kuczynski: Marshall was able to match or exceed career best marks for receptions, yards and touchdowns last year at age 32, but this was with Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing him the ball, in a system tailored to get good production out of the QB. Even with everything staying the same in New York, these numbers would be very difficult to repeat. The fact that Geno Smith is slated to be the starter at the moment, all expectations for the offense should be lowered across the board. Much like with contracts, players shouldn't necessarily be rewarded for what they've done, but they can do going forward, and this year it's risky to use a high pick on Marshall hoping for great WR1 numbers to match last season.
Pasquino: I believe that both Brandon Marshall (ADP WR14) and Eric Decker (ADP WR29) will not be worth their current average draft spots unless the Ryan Fitzpatrick situation gets resolved. The offense clicked last year with Fitzpatrick leading the way in the passing game, which in turn set up the run game to also be successful. Asking Geno Smith to perform anywhere close to those levels in 2016 is asking far too much.
Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia
Hester: The Philadelphia offense is a tough sell this season with Chip Kelly and his break-neck pace leaving town. They will run far fewer plays, which should be factored in when evaluating all participants. Matthews is another player who showed it's difficult to run a fully-effective passing game through a mostly interior wide receiver. Philadelphia's new staff could see that and opt to spread targets elsewhere. He was also wildly inconsistent, registering over 100 yards on four occasions but also registering 50 yards or fewer seven times. I'd rather take more consistent options being drafted after Matthews such as Larry Fitzgerald and Eric Decker. If taking a boom/bust player in that range, Michael Floyd is more appealing.
Waldman: The Eagles announced this winter that it would experiment with Matthews as an outside receiver. That experiment ended shortly after it began because Matthews demonstrated what he's shown on film since his playing days at Vanderbilt: He has difficulty defeating press coverage. The experiment occurred because the Eagles' scheme does less to spread the field with use of a slot receiver and the team doesn't want to limit Matthews' snaps. It appears that may now be the case. Look for the Eagles to find ways to feed Matthews the ball but not without the coaching staff experiencing growing pains at the expense of playing time for Matthews.
Breshad Perriman, Baltimore
Kuczynski: Perriman is a difficult player to judge because he has not been seen on the field in practice, let alone an actual game. Unfortunately injuries have really negatively impacted the start of his career. First he had his PCL injury that ended his rookie season before it started, then a partially torn ACL this summer that will require surgery. Right now "potential" is not enough to go off of as there's little evidence that he will be ready to start the season and avoid the PUP, or be effective when he does because of all the missed reps. Perriman's ranking is hovering around the low end WR3/flex area ahead of proven talent with much higher floors, but he should only be looked at as a late round flier.
Wimer: An injury-prone second-year wide receiver who is essentially a rookie, on a run-first team? No thanks.
Players Receiving 1 Vote
Doug Baldwin, Seattle
Haseley: It's entirely possible that we saw Doug Baldwin have a career year in 2015 that he will never top. He is a candidate for a regression to the mean after reaching career highs in receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns. His 14 touchdowns in 2015, was nine more than his previous high of five set in 2013. The boom in production may be an anomaly or it may be due to the Seahawks passing game finally stretching it's wings as Russell Wilson becomes a more well-rounded quarterback. Either way, Baldwin's ADP of WR24, 49 overall has ballooned higher than my interest level. There's still uncertainty behind his ability to sustain those numbers. Plus with the emergence of Tyler Lockett, Baldwin will surely see a regression, in my opinion.
John Brown, Arizona
Wood: All three Cardinals receivers have appeal; particularly because all three are capable of WR1 production with a consistent share of targets. If one of the trio gets hurt, the other two become every week starters. Yet, I would avoid John Brown at his current ADP because I think he's the clear-cut #3 option behind Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. Fantasy owners are forgetting that Michael Floyd hurt his hand badly last preseason (bones protruded from skin!) and he didn't round back into shape until Week 6 at the earliest (others say it wasn't until Week 8). If you look at the Cardinals productivity with Floyd healthy, Brown's numbers took a major tumble. From Week 8 onward, Brown averaged 3.6 receptions for 57 yards and 0.43 TDs (57 receptions for 910 yards and 7 touchdowns over a full 16-game season) compared to Floyd at 4.6 receptions for 79.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns (72 receptions for 1,272 yards and 8 touchdowns).
Brandin Cooks, New Orleans
Fahey: The drafting of Michael Thomas and signing of Coby Fleener is going to severely impact Brandin Cooks' output. Cooks could end up being the third receiver in his own offense. Thomas will fill the Marques Colston role that Colston's ghost has been lumbering through over recent years, while Fleener offers a similar athletic skill set to Jimmy Graham, making him an ideal fit in Sean Payton's scheme where the tight end works vertically on a regular basis. Cooks is young and produced last year but there are just too many options in New Orleans this year for a quarterback who wants to spread the ball around.
Amari Cooper, Oakland
Howe: Cooper looks like a fine NFL receiver and playmaker, but his current cost (WR12) is prohibitive for me. For all of his rookie excellence, Cooper vanished down the stretch (20 or fewer yards in each of his last four games), and it was concerning that he failed to enter the Raiders' red zone game plans (just 8 targets all year). As a result, it's hard to project Cooper beyond the WR18-20 range – though he's certainly talented enough to exceed that. Just don't pay for a TD explosion.
Michael Floyd, Arizona
Hicks: Michael Floyd has never developed into the No. 1 receiver the Cardinals thought they were getting when they spent a first round pick on him in 2012. Right now diminutive 3rd-year man John Brown is getting more looks and doing more with the ball. If he retains that role, then Floyd is in big trouble if the 37-year-old Carson Palmer regresses in any way. Larry Fitzgerald is still the class in this receiving corps and more adaptable, so I'm struggling to see how Floyd presents any return on the draft price you'll need to invest to get him.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati
Wimer: Losing quality surrounding talent like Marvin Jones, Mohamed Sanu, and Tyler Eifert (for at least part of regular season, most likely) has me pessimistic about Green's ability to be a top five fantasy wide receiver this year. He'll be good (top 12), but the abundance of targets he will enjoy will come at the price of even more defensive pressure/coverage than he's drawn in previous years. Green is overvalued as of July 1 - as we saw with Mike Evans in Tampa Bay last year, being the obviously best receiver on a team without a supporting cast can limit upside.
T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis
Hicks: With the absence of Andrew Luck for a large chunk of the season, T.Y. Hilton did remarkably well to finish where he did last year with his 3rd consecutive 1,000-yard season. Others are keen to assume that the return of Luck will mean that we all get to start afresh from the 2014 season, but football doesn't work like that. Luck had flaws exposed in 2015, and I expect similar returns to last year for Hilton. Until I see that Luck takes that next step and reduces turnovers and big hits from his game, Hilton must be a risk.
DeAndre Hopkins, Houston
Bloom: Hopkins was magnificent last year, but a good part of his numbers came when the Texans were a losing team and playing from behind. Unless you expect that happen a lot again this year, or you think the Texans wide recievers will actually get worse swapping Nate Washington for a second-year Jaelen Strong and first-round deep threat Will Fuller, or you think Brock Osweiler is a big upgrade from Brian Hoyer, it's difficult to see Hopkins reproducing his 2015 numbers even if he plays better than he did in 2016.
Jarvis Landry, Miami
Hester: Miami was expected to be a very exciting offense heading into 2015, but they mostly failed to live up to expectations. This can be attributed in part to having little perimeter presence in the passing game. In Week 12, Miami started playing rookie DeVante Parker more, and the top two receivers performed quite well. Parker's numbers profile more like the outside threat that he is while Landry's look like a possession player. Parker didn't actually crush Landry's fantasy production, though, as he actually increased his production by six fantasy points per game. Worth noting, though, is that even in Landry's best stretch all year, he didn't outpace Parker by much. And 2016 isn't likely to bring a decrease in Parker's usage. It's highly likely that as a second-year player, he gets more of a target share and at the very least continues to split production with Landry as he did post-Week 12. Parker should also remain the favorite to lead the team in touchdowns. Considering their prices, Parker is undervalued while Landry is being overvalued.
Jordy Nelson, Green Bay
Holloway: Nelson missed the entire 2015 season and the wheels fell off the Packers' offense. They finished 23rd with 335 yards per game and 15th in scoring with 23.0 points per game. Nelson returns, but will the offense again pick up their production. They definitely have multiple receiving options and Nelson could see decreased opportunities, even after leading the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards and touchdowns in 2013 and 2014.
DeVante Parker, Miami
Haseley: DeVante Parker turned on the production in the second half of the season and he is poised to make a leap forward this year, however, I have jumped off the bandwagon - at least for now. As long as Jarvis Landry is on the team, Parker will be the secondary receiver option. Landry has shown the ability to thrive in the slot, on the outside, against press, and cover zones. Parker has not shown the ability to be a diverse receiver in certain patterns or coverages. He has struggled to find consistent success in several areas, while only thriving on inside routes. His ADP of WR31, 64 overall is too rich for my comfort level. Someone else can draft him and hope he meets his ADP expectations.
Emmanuel Sanders, Denver
Pasquino: Denver is not going to be known as a pass-centric offense this year. Either Mark Sanchez or rookie Paxton Lynch will be the quarterback, and I believe that Gary Kubiak will focus on both the run and defense first. Couple that with Demaryius Thomas as the primary receiver and you leave Sanders as the second receiver in a run-heavy scheme. That's not a recipe for success for Sanders. He may have WR4 or flex appeal, but I would not take him as a Top 25-30 option this season.
Golden Tate, Detroit
Pasquino: Calvin Johnson's surprising retirement this past offseason leaves the Detroit offense in a state of disarray. Golden Tate was a great WR2 to complement Johnson, but he is not ready to be a WR1. I expect the Lions, Matthew Stafford and the entire passing game and offense to struggle. Drafting Tate as a Top 25 receiver is a big mistake in my mind for this year.
Sammy Watkins, Buffalo
Haseley: Foot injuries are dangerous, especially for wide receivers. It is currently an unknown when it comes to the expected level of return for Sammy Watkins. He may wind up missing some or part of training camp and/or preseason. His time off could affect his conditioning and susceptibility of another injury. I'm a big fan of Tyrod Taylor's rise to prominence in the league, which eventually will pay dividends for Watkins, but I'm not comfortable selecting him as my WR2 at his current ADP of WR16, 28 overall.
Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh
Hester: It's hard to call a player ranked this low "overvalued," but this is a call to action to be aware that selecting Wheaton is not selecting the typical number two receiver in a high-octane offense. Tight end Ladarius Green, and fellow receivers Sammie Coates and Darrius Heyward-Bey (yes, even him) will be parasitic forces for Wheaton. At times in each of Wheaton's three seasons, he and Ben Roethlisberger have looked out-of-sync. And his biggest games came against teams who struggled to defend the middle while outside coverage focused on Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. In fact, Wheaton's shocking nine-reception, 201-yard, one score game after Heath Miller began the game on a tear, ripping through the middle of a Seattle defense that struggled all year in that part of the field. Miller had five catches and 45 yards in the first quarter before leaving with injury. I'd prefer two New Orleans receivers being drafted later than Wheaton – Willie Snead and rookie Michael Thomas.