The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
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Players Receiving 4 Votes
Jimmy Graham, Seattle
Alexander: In theory, TE12 isn't an awful price to pay for Graham. It's exactly where he ranked last season on a per game basis, and we know from his years in New Orleans his upside is TE1. In theory. But in practice, Graham received five targets or less in five out of 11 games played in his first year with the Seahawks. He scored only two touchdowns and was held to 41 receiving yards or less six times. The hyper-efficient version of Seattle's passing attack we saw down the stretch last season may very well return in 2016, but will Graham be healthy enough to contribute? Cadillac Williams, Ryan Williams, Nate Allen and Victor Cruz are recent examples of players who struggled to get back following patellar tendon surgery. As tempting as Graham's name might look in low-end TE1 territory, players like Eric Ebron, Dwayne Allen, and Martellus Bennett figure to play significant roles in quality offenses and come with none of the injury concerns.
Simpkins: Even deeply discounted from where he was going last season, Graham does not present value in the tenth round. When Graham was healthy, Seattle seemed determined to use him to block and thereby shore up one of the worst lines in football. Things remain unsettled along the offensive line headed into 2016. Then there is the injury-- a patellar tendon tear that ended his 2015 campaign. The chances of returning from such a devastating event to play at the previous level of athleticism are not good. Victor Cruz is a recent example of how hard it is to recover from this injury.