The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
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Player Receiving 8 Votes
Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina
Phil Alexander: Benjamin continues to be least desirable third round pick in 2016 fantasy drafts. He finished as a top-15 wide receiver in his rookie season but needed a massive 29.3% target market share to make it happen. His current ADP assumes Benjamin will once again see close to 150 targets because his career 6.95 yards per target average suggests it's the only way he'll sniff 1,000 receiving yards. It's more likely Benjamin sees closer to 120 targets this year, which caps his upside in the WR26-30 range. If the buzz from training camp can be believed, Devin Funchess will command more targets in his second season. Ted Ginn Jr. proved deserving of his role as Carolina's primary deep threat. And last year's team target leader, Greg Olsen, is locked into his usual 120+ looks from Cam Newton. Speaking of Newton, we should expect his league leading 7.1% touchdown rate to normalize a bit this season, which is more bad news for Benjamin, who contrary to popular belief is not exactly a red zone monster. Benjamin converted only three of his team-leading 17 red zone targets into touchdowns in 2014 -- a full 5% below the league average.
Sigmund Bloom: Benjamin still isn't in good enough shape to finish out all of his deep routes or play a full complement of snaps, so a third round ADP seems entirely overaggressive. He is being pushed by Devin Funchess, who had an outstanding camp and offseason. If Funchess gets to spell Benjamin while Benjamin is still getting up to game speed, he could impress enough to get first team snaps every week. Benjamin's rookie year numbers were great, but also came in garbage time and on an inefficient level of play. With more viable targets, Benjamin will have to be more efficient, and he won't face as many prevent defenses with the Panthers now a winning team.
Mike Brown: In addition to coming off a torn ACL, Benjamin's conditioning has been drawn into question throughout camp. Not to mention Devin Funchess breathing down his neck as the number one option in the passing game. Not to mention the likelihood of Cam Newton's touchdown totals regressing. Not to mention the fact that Benjamin is being taken as the #18 wide receiver on average. Not to mention...