The flip side of succeeding with value players is failing with overvalued players. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look through the top 150 players and identify players that should underperform their draft position.
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Player Receiving 10 Votes
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville
Mike Brown: Sure, Bortles could go out and replicate his 2015 season. But with such poor efficiency ratings, he'll need to keep the volume of passes at an extremely high level in order to match his 2015 productivity (or just be more efficient). With the defensive improvements and a likely stronger running game, I fear that the passing volume just won't be there for Bortles to sustain those sort of stats. And he won't provide much more than the guys going several rounds later.
Cian Fahey: Through two preseason games, Blake Bortles looks exactly the same as he did last year. His mechanics haven't altered even slightly and his throw-it-up-and-hope mentality remains. Efficiency and consistency is going to be more important for Bortles this year because he will no longer be throwing all the time in the redzone. His 27 redzone touchdowns last year won't be replicated because Chris Ivory has arrived to be the goalline back. Ivory carried the ball 18 times within five yards of the endzone last year.
Ryan Hester: Bortles had a fantasy season unlike many we've seen before in terms of his preseason ranking vs. where he finished. However, the factors that contributed to that are likely unrepeatable. First, Jacksonville passed in the red zone often last season due to a mediocre run game. They have beefed up their running back corps this season and plan to be improved. Also beefed up is their defense, which should provide the offense with fewer production-friendly game scripts. Bortles as QB7 seems like it might actually be above his best-case scenario. I'd rather have Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, or even Tom Brady backstopped by a streamer for four weeks if he's suspended.