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NOTE: Sigmund Bloom, Matt Waldman and I -- along with Cecil Lammey and a host of other great guests -- will be providing live analysis of the draft from the first pick of the draft on Thursday night through the end of the third round on Friday night. Produced as a Google Hangout, you'll be able to join and watch the live feed (or as an on-demand replay) here. We'll also have both shows on our podcast page and iTunes podcast feed early the following week.
Defensive Line | Edge Players | Off LOS Linebackers | Secondary
A WORD ON CATEGORIZING DRAFT PROSPECTS
I've chosen to separate the linebacker position into edge players and players who will be primarily run defenders (and coverage backers, where able). If you're starting with this installment of the preview series, click here to read an extended explanation for that decision in the defensive line preview.
This is a great class to classify in this way. Nearly every pass rusher is athletic enough to believe capable of playing effectively from both a two and three point stance. And four of the top five consensus off-LOS backers can easily fill multiple positions in multiple schemes. I'm excited to see which defensive coordinators draft which linebackers -- and how soon.
WATCH LIST | EARLY ROUNDS
The table below includes players generally considered to be first or second day picks. The draft grade is based on a consensus of multiple draft writers, but shouldn't be taken as anything close to a lock. There will absolutely be players not listed in this table -- many of whom I'll list later in this feature -- who will be drafted before the third day of the draft. The scheme fit column is my assessment of the roles each player will fit best. The players are listed by consensus draft grade, not my personal ranking for NFL (or fantasy) purposes.
PLAYER | SCHOOL | HT | WT | CONSENSUS ROUND | SCHEME FITS |
C.J. Mosley | Alabama | 6-2 | 234 | 1st | 4-3 MLB = 3-4 WILB = 4-3 WLB > 3-4 SILB |
Ryan Shazier | Ohio State | 6-1 | 237 | 1st-2nd | 4-3 WLB > 3-4 WILB > 4-3 MLB |
Chris Borland | Wisconsin | 5-11 | 248 | 2nd-3rd | 4-3 MLB = 3-4 WILB = 4-3 WLB > 3-4 SILB |
Telvin Smith | Florida State | 6-3 | 218 | 3rd-4th | 4-3 WLB |
Shayne Skov | Stanford | 6-2 | 245 | 3rd-4th | 3-4 SILB > 3-4 WILB = 4-3 SLB > 4-3 MLB |
C.J. Mosley: true first round talent?
I thin Mosley is clearly a first round talent. But I've seen questions about the recent track record of first round off-the-line of scrimmage linebackers from Alabama -- Dont'a Hightower (25th overall in 2012) and Rolando McClain (8th overall in 2010) -- and whether that might be reason for pause. Hightower isn't a clean example, as he was used as a nickel pass rusher at times, but McClain was billed as a very instinctive, can't miss between-the-tackles prospect. McClain never developed, possibly due to off-field factors, and Hightower has yet to assert himself as an every-down anchor for the Patriots.
It isn't unreasonable to consider whether there's something about the Alabama program that leads NFL evaluators to overrate Crimson Tide linebacker. I liked McClain and Hightower, too. But such issues -- strong surrounding cast helping to hide deficiencies, strenous year round training and practice program that may increase the risk of injury -- are difficult to quantify. Let's stick to the film as the primary benchmark for evaluation.
My notes on Mosley are peppered with positives. I liked his footwork, both when reading the run and changing direction in coverage. I thought he showed easy, controlled power when shedding blocks. From what I could see from television angles, Mosley's coverage instincts are very strong and he has the fluid hips to act on what he sees.
What I didn't see often enough from Mosley was clear evidence that he will become a downhill decision-maker that brings a violent presence between the tackles. That isn't a deal breaker. The instincts and fundamental play that he shows are the best in the class. But it does make me question whether or not he's a clear fit as a traditional inside linebacker. There were times that Mosley flashed downhill ability on film, but he leaned heavily toward a more read and react style.
I see Mosley as a rangy, athletic player in the mold of Sean Lee or Daryl Washington than a power and speed player like NaVorro Bowman or Derrick Johnson. I think he'll be a much better pro than McClain or Hightower.
C.J. Mosley's Draft Breakdown page
ryan shazier: too athletic to play linebacker?
That seems an odd statement to make, to suggest that a player is too athletic. But I have something in my notes on Shazier that I've never written previously: "goofiest angles ever, where is he going?" Usually, if I have questions about instincts and whether a linebacker understands what he sees, I'll just note "questionable instincts" or "too frequent false steps" or "takes an extra read step and finds himself out of position."
Shazier is different. He is lightning fast on tape, so fast that you almost miss the transition from read to first step. And he doesn't appear to be subconsciously tanking his angles, something I wondered about Zach Brown at times two seasons ago. But there were too many times where his pursuit angles were way off or his upfield attack left him no chance.
I saw enough strong play to know that there's much more to Shazier than there was a player like Ernie Sims. But there's a voice in my head that makes me wonder if Shazier's body moves too quickly for his football instincts to catch up. There may be nothing to this, but I like to point out the unusual things that end up in my notebook.
Ryan Shazier's Draft Breakdown page
Chris borland: does size really matter?
I'm privileged to have two good friends in Cecil Lammey and Matt Waldman that are willing to vouch for me each January when it's time to request Senior Bowl credentials. I learn something new there every year, not just about the players themselves but also about the evaluation process and the folks that participate in that process.
Without question, Aaron Donald and Dee Ford stood out this year. But I was pleasantly surprised by Chris Borland. I had a chance to watch multiple cutups on Borland in the week before the Senior Bowl and I wasn't sure I saw what others who were comparing him to Zach Thomas saw. I thought I saw a player that was more similar to Stephen Tulloch -- not quite as rangy, instinctive or projectable in coverage as Thomas.
Then I got to see him in seven-on-seven and team drills from the stands, approximating both sideline and end zone All-22 angles. And I saw it.
Borland never took a false step and he effortlessly put himself in position to make plays. Though it should be noted that there isn't a whole lot of mystery to the playbook in Mobile. Defenses play a combination of four fronts and use just a couple of coverages. Offenses run a small set of plays. But Borland's reads and reactions were dramatically different than the rest of the Senior Bowl invitees. He also consistently showed good footwork and flashed the same mature array of blitz moves that he did at Wisconsin.
I wouldn't put Borland on the same level as Lavonte David or Zach Brown, but he opened my eyes in the same way that Bobby Wagner did in 2011.
Size is a concern here, but there are exceptions. Thomas and Tulloch are two. London Fletcher and Larry Foote were successful with similar body types. Some teams may also ding Borland for a shoulder condition. But he's a football player, scheme-versatile and capable of handling an every-down role.
Chase Borland's Draft Breakdown page
Telvin Smith: Does Size Really Matter?
In this case, size will matter. Not that Smith cannot become a valuable contributor to a defense. He can. But carrying 218 pounds now, without a frame that will clearly support 230-235 pounds in time, he's going to be limited to a flow-and-chase / coverage role in the NFL. It's a role Smith is well suited for, but a role that may only exist in subpackages for the majority of teams.
Smith is willing to take on blocks and doesn't shy away from contact. But he won't be able to shed or fight through blocks. Some have wondered if he'd be a better fit as a Kam Chancellor / Bryan Scott type safety / hybrid player. However, there's been no indication that Smith is willing to consider a position other than linebacker.
Telvin Smith's Draft Breakdown page
OTHER PLAYERS OF INTEREST
Some of these players may be drafted in the first three rounds. All of them have at least one intriguing quality and could end up as valuable rotation players or more.
Kevin Pierre-Louis | Jordan Tripp |
Christian Kirksey | Preston Brown |
Christian Jones | Jordan Zumwalt |
There's a chance a team sees one of these players as an early third day pick, but I'm not certain I see an every-down player in this bunch.
Jordan Tripp has gained a cult following of sorts as a small school standout who has flashed an athletic and relentless style of play. He's easy to like, but I think he's limited to a flow and chase role. He struggled with the physical level of play at the Senior Bowl when asked to play between the tackles. There's a chance he'll gain enough size to carve out a bigger role in an NFL weight and conditioning program, but he's not yet projectable into more.
Kevin Pierre-Louis is interesting. He's quick and rangy, but aggressive and plays bigger than his size. He's also shown some pass rush ability in nickel packages and moved out to the flat in coverage successfully. Teams will have size concerns and there's room for improvement with his hand technique and decision making, but Pierre-Louis could convince a team that he's worthy of a third or high fourth round selection.
Jordan Tripp's Draft Breakdown page ||| Kevin Pierre-Louis' Draft Breakdown page
WHO HAS THE MOST FANTASY FRIENDLY DRAFT NEED?
In addition to Dallas, Buffalo and Jacksonville, who each have openings for a pass rushing defensive end, these 3-4 teams are in need of a edge player at outside linebacker. But it must be noted that a strong defense can never have too many pass rushers.
- Washington ~ Signed Akeem Jordan and Darryl Sharpton, but need upgrade next to Perry Riley
- Cleveland ~ Browns need an upgrade to Craig Robertson
- Denver ~ With Wesley Woodyard in Tennessee, Broncos now relying on Nate Irving for extended snaps
- Houston ~ Brian Cushing has durability issues, Texans depth chart filled with replacement level talent
- Tampa Bay ~ Rumors around that Mason Foster may not be seen as answer inside for Lovie Smith
SMART WAYS TO PREP FOR THE DRAFT
DraftBreakdown.com ~ There's no substitute for your own eyes. The guys at Draft Breakdown make scouting college games easy with 7-10 minute videos edited down to include every snap taken by a player in a single college game with the player highlighted for easy reference on each snap. Every prospect has a library of five games (and sometimes as many as 10-12).
Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio ~ I'm clearly biased, since Matt (along with Sigmund Bloom) are my closest friends in the business. But you won't find a more detailed draft guide that stays true to process. You may not agree with every conclusion Matt makes, but you owe it to yourself to consider them.
Dane Brugler's Draft Guide PDF ~ Clean, easy to follow, packed with details and information and film study, this PDF rivals anything a long time draft lover like me enjoyed about the guides put out by Jerry Jones, Frank Coyne and Russ Lande over the years.
Sigmund Bloom's On The Couch podcasts ~ I'm continually amazed at how much depth Bloom gets out of his guests each week. This show runs nearly year-round, but the months of March and April are dedicated to draft talk you shouldn't miss. The warehouse link to the Audible podcast feed will also take you to a handful of great draft interviews by Cecil Lammey.
Fran Duffy's Scout's Notebook series ~ If you're not sure what to look for while watching the Draft Breakdown cutups or why those you follow on Twitter focus on the traits they do, this video series is a great primer. Separated into short positional segments, Duffy is joined by Mike Mayock, Greg Cosell, Josh Norris and Phil Savage and many others to talk about what they're looking for when watching tape.
Ross Tucker's interviews with Greg Cosell ~ Tucker and Cosell got together every Wednesday for the past two months to discuss their feelings on the draft by position. If you've missing missing your Cosell - Doug Farrar fix, you can get a quick fix here.
Doug Farrar's SI 64 ~ The Shutdown 50 has become the SI 64, with Doug (along with Chris Burke) profiling their top draft prospects. I'm still holding out hope that Doug can find a way to bring back his amazing podcast series with Cosell. Until then, his strong work at the Audibles blog is not to be missed.
Twitter follows ~ I'm hesitant because I know I'm going to miss somebody I shouldn't here, so the safest thing to do is subscribe to Bloom's draft list. But it'll be hard not to be distracted by Twitter while doing our live draft hangouts waiting for comments by Dane Brugler, Lance Zierlein, Evan Silva, Eric Stoner, Doug Farrar, Mike Tanier, Greg Cosell, Eric Galko, Cian Fahey, Russ Lande, Ryan Riddle, Josh Norris, Rumford Johnny, and Alen Dumonjic. They are all strong year-round follows but make sure they're on your timeline on draft weekend.
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.