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NOTE: Sigmund Bloom, Matt Waldman and I -- along with Cecil Lammey and a host of other great guests -- will be providing live analysis of the draft from the first pick of the draft on Thursday night through the end of the third round on Friday night. Produced as a Google Hangout, you'll be able to join and watch the live feed (or as an on-demand replay) here. We'll also have both shows on our podcast page and iTunes podcast feed early the following week.
Defensive Line | Edge Players | Off LOS Linebackers | Secondary
A word on categorizing draft prospects
I'm breaking this year's draft preview into four sections. The categories are different this year and as you can see in the navigation bar just above, three of those sections will focus on the front seven.
I'm going to adopt a convention that has -- smartly -- taken over in draft circles to better categorize the front seven prospects. The term "tweener" has fallen out of favor in recent years and rightly so. Tweener initially often carried a negative connotation: This player may be too small to survive as a 4-3 defensive end but may not be quick enough to work as a 3-4 outside linebacker.
But it didn't take long for the college game to evolve and begin producing a new kind of tweener. These players were athletic and strong enough to play in either scheme effectively. They could play the run well enough to be effective as a base defensive end and were fluid enough to rush from a two point stance or drop into coverage when asked.
These players aren't "tweeners." They are scheme versatile. They shouldn't be lumped in with traditional base defensive ends, who must spend all their time in a three point stance. They shouldn't be grouped with linebackers without edge rushing skill.
NFL teams will put these players on their own draft boards as "DE" or "OLB" but each team has the luxury of knowing where a given player will slot on their depth chart. We don't have that luxury before the draft.
I think it makes sense to separate this ever-increasing number of players into an "Edge Player" category. In some years -- and this year in particular -- that will drastically reduce the number of prospects we consider defensive ends. It doesn't completely resolve the "tweener" discussion. There will be some edge players that just barely make the cut athletically and some defensive ends that may be drafted to play outside linebacker. But I think it's a cleaner discussion.
The non-edge linebacker category gaining favor is "Off Line Of Scrimmage" or Off-LOS linebacker. It's a category that includes players that will be looked at as 4-3 middle linebackers, 4-3 outside linebackers and 3-4 inside linebackers. It works because today's 4-3 and 3-4 schemes are very similar and players in this category are by default scheme diverse. Most prospects who played 4-3 middle linebacker in college can handle either 3-4 inside linebacker role and, possibly, both 4-3 outside linebacker roles.
[Those in IDP leagues so commonly frustrated when they lose a valuable defensive end to a new linebacker classification can see another potential application of this categorical system. It may not be a clean and easy fix currently, but it's time to consider a new paradigm for positional classifications in IDP leagues. Much, much more on that topic in a RTD coming soon...]
Watch List | early rounds
The table below includes players generally considered to be first or second day picks. The draft grade is based on a consensus of multiple draft writers, but shouldn't be taken as anything close to a lock. There will absolutely be players not listed in this table -- many of whom I'll list later in this feature -- who will be drafted before the third day of the draft. The scheme fit column is my assessment of the roles each player will fit best. The players are listed by consensus draft grade, not my personal ranking for NFL (or fantasy) purposes.
PLAYER | SCHOOL | HT | WT | CONSENSUS ROUND | SCHEME FITS |
Aaron Donald | Pitt | 6-1 | 285 | 1st | 4-3 DT, 3-tech |
Ra'Shede Hageman | Minnesota | 6-6 | 310 | 1st | 4-3 DT > 3-4 DE |
Kony Ealy | Missouri | 6-4 | 273 | 1st-2nd | 4-3 DE > 4-3 DT |
Louis Nix | Notre Dame | 6-3 | 331 | 1st-2nd | 4-3 DT = 3-4 NT > 3-4 DE |
Dominique Easley | Florida | 6-2 | 288 | 1st-2nd | 4-3 DT, 3-tech |
Timmy Jernigan | Florida St. | 6-2 | 299 | 1st-2nd | 4-3 DT |
Stephon Tuitt | Notre Dame | 6-6 | 304 | 1st-2nd | 3-4 DE > 4-3 DE |
Scott Crichton | Oregon St. | 6-3 | 273 | 1st-2nd | 4-3 DE |
Kareem Martin | North Carolina | 6-6 | 272 | 2nd-3rd | 4-3 DE, nickel 3-tech |
Aaron Donald (and Dominique Easley): does size really matter?
Size absolutely matters. Except when it doesn't.
April is the month of draft misinformation, misdirection and misguided thinking. And interminably long winters with random snow storms, too, apparently. But the sun is out today and I digress.
Aaron Donald may be the most disruptive defensive player available in this draft. No matter how much you like Jadeveon Clowney -- and I like him a lot -- Donald deserves to be in that conversation. But, despite dominating every offensive lineman he's faced in college and at the Senior Bowl and killing the combine workout, there's been lots of discussion about whether a 6-1, 285 pound player can survive as an interior defensive lineman.
Here's the NFL.com draft profile for Aaron Donald:
STRENGTHS Quick off the snap. Natural leverage. Gets under pads and into gaps. Good foot athlete -- redirects well and can work the edges and loop and stunt. Flexible enough to zone drop in short area. Plays with awareness and consistently locates the ball. Closes hard and fast. Keeps working to the ball. Disruptive penetrating ability. Outstanding career production -- 63 TFL and 27.5 sacks the last three seasons. Tough and competitive. Team captain with terrific personal and football character.
WEAKNESSES Marginal height and frame is nearly maxed out. Hands are more active than strong -- could play with more pop and power. Overpowered in the run game and ground up by double teams. Gets snared and controlled by bigger, longer blockers. Not a two-gap player. Has some tweener traits -- lacks ideal length and bend to play outside.
Now, consider the following NFL.com draft profile (written by a different scout) of Player X, who measured 6-1 and 293 pounds at the Combine in 2010:
STRENGTHS Player X has been a productive SEC defensive tackle. He plays with great intelligence and instincts and was a good student at Georgia as well. Plays with good motor and doesn’t stop till the whistle. Displays impressive quickness off the ball and good lateral agility in pursuit. Has impressive pass rushing ability for a defensive tackle.
WEAKNESSES He’s undersized as a defensive tackle lacking adequate height and bulk. Doesn’t have the power to consistently hold up at the point of attack against the run and is overpowered by bigger blockers. Must become more consistent with his hand use.
Pretty similar. You know where I'm going with this. Player X is Geno Atkins. He's done okay in the NFL.
Some may argue that Atkins is stronger and more athletic. He's clearly a physical freak. He had a crazy 34 reps at 225 pounds and blisteringly good 3-cone and 20-yard shuttle times of 7.33 and 4.43 seconds. Donald? 35 reps at 225. 3-cone time of 7.11 seconds. 20-yard shuttle time of 4.39 seconds.
I'm not telling you that Donald is Atkins reincarnated. But don't dismiss what he's shown on tape and at the combine because of concerns over measurables.
So, yeah, size matters. Might Donald be even more dominant if he were 6-2 and 310 pounds? Possibly. But playing the game with a keen understanding of leverage with natural athleticism and power works -- even if you're on the "wrong" side of the bell curve on the NFL growth chart.
Donald probably wouldn't be successful if you ask him to play 1-technique or 5-technique for 45-50 snaps a game. But he's going to be coveted by a defensive coordinator that sees him as a penetrating 3-technique who can disrupt the running game and pressure the quarterback.
It's admittedly more difficult to make the same argument with Easley. There are important injury concerns and Easley doesn't play with the same kind of strength and leverage as Donald. But the disruptive upside is there with Easley, whose second and third step are as eye-catching and explosive as his first.
Aaron Donald's Draft Breakdown page ||| Dominique Easley's Draft Breakdown page
ra'shede hageman: does size really matter?
Size absolutely matters. Especially when it comes with rare athleticism.
Hageman will very likely be drafted in the first round, possibly within the first 20 picks. There's a lot to like. He has experience playing nearly every technique on the line at Minnesota and should remain versatile in the NFL. When he plays with good pad level and uses his size effectively, he can be dominant and has drawn comparisons to Michael Brockers and John Henderson. When he doesn't, he's easy to stand up and drive away from the point of attack. He also hasn't shown much more than a power rush and generally doesn't win with his first step.
But he's 6-6 and 310 pounds and has shown enough athleticism to believe he can develop his first step and become a more productive pass rusher. It's difficult to let that kind of potential slide by you on draft day. But "potential" can become an albatross of sorts for the team taking on the risk.
We're still waiting for Michael Brockers to blossom into his potential. Brockers is younger than Hageman by four months. There's lots of talk about Donald, but I think Hageman is the most interesting tackle to track in this class.
Ra'Shede Hageman's Draft Breakdown page
kony ealy, scott crichton and kareem martin: more than afterthoughts
Although they won't be included in the discussion of pass rush talents in the edge player installment of this series, these three are not limited talents. Ealy and Martin arguably have just as much positional versatility in subpackages, as players that can slide inside to a 3-technique role on passing downs.
Ealy and Crichton will get first round draft grades on some draft boards, but are an interesting compare and contrast.
Ealy is more athletic and arguably has a higher ceiling than Crichton, but is still developing as a run defender and pass rusher. Ealy's upside and size-speed combination will probably get him drafted before Crichton. Ealy's first step is good, but his closing speed is better. If he can improve his technique (power after the snap, hand technique, pad level, dip and turn) in the first 2-3 steps of his pass rush, he has elite upside.
Crichton is clearly more polished than Ealy, showing an understanding of how to play with leverage and an ability to shed and play the run. What's most striking is his ability to think on his feet while moving forward. Though he's not a pure edge rusher, he has shown an array of counter moves that allow him to maximize his ability.
I liked what I saw of Martin on tape in early January and his size and arm length were striking at the Senior Bowl weigh-in. But I was disappointed when he proved unable to beat offensive lineman in one-on-one and team drills during Senior Bowl practices. I felt the same about Ezekiel Ansah and Margus Hunt at times last year, however, so it's too soon to write Martin off as an above-average college talent that just doesn't quite have enough for the NFL.
Kony Ealy's Draft Breakdown page ||| Scott Crichton's Draft Breakdown page ||| Kareem Martin's Draft Breakdown page
other players of interest
Some of these players may be drafted in the first three rounds. All of them have at least one intriguing quality and could end up as valuable rotation players or more.
DE Taylor Hart | DE Will Clarke |
DT Will Sutton | DT Kelcy Quarles |
DT DaQuan Jones | DT Ego Ferguson |
DE Brent Urban | DT Daniel McCullers |
DT Caraun Reid | DT DeAndre Coleman |
who has the most fantasy friendly draft need?
- Dallas -- Current depth chart has George Selvie and Jeremy Mincey as likely 800 snap players
- Buffalo -- Jerry Hughes currently best option to start opposite Mario Williams
- Jacksonville -- Added Jason Babin and Chris Clemons, but need elite every-down end
- Houston -- Looking for a replacement for Antonio Smith to play opposite J.J. Watt
smart ways to prep for the draft
DraftBreakdown.com ~ There's no substitute for your own eyes. The guys at Draft Breakdown make scouting college games easy with 7-10 minute videos edited down to include every snap taken by a player in a single college game with the player highlighted for easy reference on each snap. Every prospect has a library of five games (and sometimes as many as 10-12).
Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio ~ I'm clearly biased, since Matt (along with Sigmund Bloom) are my closest friends in the business. But you won't find a more detailed draft guide that stays true to process. You may not agree with every conclusion Matt makes, but you owe it to yourself to consider them.
Dane Brugler's Draft Guide PDF ~ Clean, easy to follow, packed with details and information and film study, this PDF rivals anything a long time draft lover like me enjoyed about the guides put out by Jerry Jones, Frank Coyne and Russ Lande over the years.
Sigmund Bloom's On The Couch podcasts ~ I'm continually amazed at how much depth Bloom gets out of his guests each week. This show runs nearly year-round, but the months of March and April are dedicated to draft talk you shouldn't miss. The warehouse link to the Audible podcast feed will also take you to a handful of great draft interviews by Cecil Lammey.
Fran Duffy's Scout's Notebook series ~ If you're not sure what to look for while watching the Draft Breakdown cutups or why those you follow on Twitter focus on the traits they do, this video series is a great primer. Separated into short positional segments, Duffy is joined by Mike Mayock, Greg Cosell, Josh Norris and Phil Savage and many others to talk about what they're looking for when watching tape.
Ross Tucker's interviews with Greg Cosell ~ Tucker and Cosell got together every Wednesday for the past two months to discuss their feelings on the draft by position. If you've missing missing your Cosell - Doug Farrar fix, you can get a quick fix here.
Doug Farrar's SI 64 ~ The Shutdown 50 has become the SI 64, with Doug (along with Chris Burke) profiling their top draft prospects. I'm still holding out hope that Doug can find a way to bring back his amazing podcast series with Cosell. Until then, his strong work at the Audibles blog is not to be missed.
Twitter follows ~ I'm hesitant because I know I'm going to miss somebody I shouldn't here, so the safest thing to do is subscribe to Bloom's draft list. But it'll be hard not to be distracted by Twitter while doing our live draft hangouts waiting for comments by Dane Brugler, Lance Zierlein, Evan Silva, Eric Stoner, Doug Farrar, Mike Tanier, Greg Cosell, Eric Galko, Cian Fahey, Russ Lande, Ryan Riddle, Josh Norris, Rumford Johnny, and Alen Dumonjic. They are all strong year-round follows but make sure they're on your timeline on draft weekend.
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.