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NOTE: Sigmund Bloom, Matt Waldman and I -- along with Cecil Lammey and a host of other great guests -- will be providing live analysis of the draft from the first pick of the draft on Thursday night through the end of the third round on Friday night. Produced as a Google Hangout, you'll be able to join and watch the live feed (or as an on-demand replay) here. We'll also have both shows on our podcast page and iTunes podcast feed early the following week.
Defensive Line | Edge Players | Off LOS Linebackers | Secondary
A WORD ON CATEGORIZING DRAFT PROSPECTS
I've chosen to separate the edge rushing talents into their own category rather than slot them as defensive ends or outside linebackers. If you're starting with this installment of the preview series, click here to read an extended explanation for that decision in the defensive line preview.
WATCH LIST | EARLY ROUNDS
The table below includes players generally considered to be first or second day picks. The draft grade is based on a consensus of multiple draft writers, but shouldn't be taken as anything close to a lock. There will absolutely be players not listed in this table -- many of whom I'll list later in this feature -- who will be drafted before the third day of the draft. The scheme fit column is my assessment of the roles each player will fit best. The players are listed by consensus draft grade, not my personal ranking for NFL (or fantasy) purposes.
PLAYER | SCHOOL | HT | WT | CONSENSUS ROUND | SCHEME FITS |
Jadeveon Clowney | South Carolina | 6-5 | 266 | 1st | 4-3 DE > 3-4 OLB |
Khalil Mack | Buffalo | 6-3 | 251 | 1st | 3-4 OLB |
Anthony Barr | UCLA | 6-5 | 255 | 1st | 3-4 OLB |
Dee Ford | Auburn | 6-2 | 251 | 1st-2nd | 4-3 DE > 3-4 OLB |
Demarcus Lawrence | Boise State | 6-3 | 251 | 1st-2nd | 4-3 DE > 3-4 OLB |
Kyle Van Noy | BYU | 6-3 | 243 | 1st-2nd | 3-4 OLB = 4-3 SLB >> 4-3 DE |
Jerry Attaochu | Georgia Tech | 6-3 | 252 | 1st-2nd | 3-4 OLB = 4-3 DE |
Carl Bradford | Arizona St, | 6-1 | 250 | 2nd-3rd | 3-4 OLB |
Chris Smith | Arkansas | 6-1 | 266 | 3rd-4th | 4-3 DE >> 3-4 OLB |
Marcus Smith | Louisville | 6-3 | 251 | 3rd-4th | 3-4 OLB |
are there legitimate questions about jadeveon clowney?
Let's start with what I believe are questions that are more noise than major concerns.
I don't believe the drop from 13 sacks in 2012 to three sacks last year is a sign that Clowney phoned in his junior season. Clowney saw more attention from offensive lines last year and was often chipped by running backs and double teamed. Offenses routinely moved the pocket away from Clowney's side of the field or chose to run to the other side of the formation. Despite those factors, Clowney still regularly displayed an ability to split double teams and disrupt interior running plays, frequently chased down running backs in backside pursuit and often effected the pocket in ways that allowed his teammates to make plays on the quarterback.
Debate whether Clowney's practice habits and his relationship with Steve Spurrier raise questions about how much he "loves football" if you like, but I didn't see evidence of a player that quit on his teammates or took large numbers of snaps off during games.
However, I think there are two legitimate concerns with Clowney.
First, though Clowney is known for a strikingly athletic style of play -- he has an explosive first step, a striking ability to convert his speed to a power rush move and natural pursuit skills -- he hasn't yet shown a consistently dominant edge rush move where he gains the corner in 2-3 steps, dips and flattens and closes to the quarterback.
Clowney has been most successful when using his speed to set up a power rush move (bull, rip or swim). That may translate to the NFL, but he's not yet as technically dominant as guys like DeMarcus Ware, Jared Allen, Jason Pierre-Paul and Robert Quinn have been as edge rushers. It should not be difficult for an athlete of Clowney's caliber to develop that ability, however.
Second, while I didn't see evidence that Clowney took plays off, it is evident on film that his right foot limits him at times. He doesn't appear to have difficulty getting off the line of scrimmage or up to speed but there were many instances where he looked timid when moving through trash. He also showed a hitch when making a sudden lateral movement or slowing down at the end of plays.
Bone spurs are a known issue with the right foot and were bothersome enough to have Clowney leaning heavily toward surgery at one point last season. I'll have more on Clowney's health concern in a coming feature on the possible medical flags in this year's draft. Suffice to say for now that there's reason to worry that this issue may require future intervention.
There's more than enough on film to believe Clowney can be a once-every-decade pass rush talent. If he drops out of the top three picks, it's because there are more to the character and medical flags than we may know. I doubt it happens.
Jadeveon Clowney's Draft Breakdown page
Is Khalil Mack this year's best defensive prospect?
It's easy to dismiss the question. Aaron Donald and Jadeveon Clowney are superior athletes with jaw-dropping measurables who produced against better competition more often. But Mack belongs in the conversation.
There's an argument that Mack is the best all-around front seven prospect. He's a polished pass rusher who plays to the whistle. He's shown a comfort level in a three point stance, has a wide array of pass rush moves from a standup position and was used in space in zone coverage and defending the run. Though he played in a non-BCS league, he dominated against Ohio State last year.
Should Houston -- a base 3-4 team -- decide that Mack's mature pass rush isn't far behind Clowney's, it isn't a stretch to believe that what Mack has shown on film as an outside linebacker could give him the nod if the Texans choose to draft an edge player with their first round pick.
Khalil Mack's Draft Breakdown page
dee ford: Does size really matter?
The importance of prototypical size is going to be a running theme in this series. The majority of players in the watch list table above are under 260 pounds. I chose Ford to highlight here because I think he's a slightly better fit at defensive end than linebacker and he seems to be taking the most heat around the draft community. That's likely because he's both shorter and lighter than ideal.
Size matters for linemen. Shorter defensive ends may be able to find a leverage advantage, but often have trouble getting to a place where they can control an offensive lineman because their arms or stride are shorter. Those that are successful usually win with speed. And I think Ford can win with speed in the NFL.
Ford dominated a so-so group of offensive linemen during the South practices then carried his strong practice effort over against a much better group of North lineman during the game. He was equally impressive late in his college season against the likes of Missouri and Florida State. He'll need a good fit to reach his ceiling in the NFL -- preferably a scheme that allows him to use his speed first and play the run on his way to the quarterback. But I think Ford compares very favorably to Robert Mathis, who is listed 6-2, 246 by the Colts and is one of the better edge rushing, pursuit run defenders in the league.
Dee Ford's Draft Breakdown page
who is demarcus lawrence?
Lawrence has quietly gained traction in draft circles as a disruptive athletic pass rusher. You can see his quickness and acceleration and flexibility on film and he was very productive after transferring to Boise State two years ago. When I first started charting draft potentials in January, he wasn't high on the radar of many. As the pre-draft process wore on, he seemed to move into more and more top five lists of defensive end prospects.
Despite the athleticism, I think there are some obvious concerns with his film. Lawrence tends to play tall. When he does, he gets his feet tangled because his base is too narrow and it kills his lateral explosiveness. He also struggles to disengage when an offensive lineman gets his hands on him.
However, he has a viable edge rush despite his somewhat disappointing 4.83 40 yard dash and 7.46 3-cone times. There are many instances where he delivers enough of a blow to set up a better than expected inside rip move. He may be limited to a subpackage pass rushing role initially, but the tools are there to be developed.
DeMarcus Lawrence's Draft Breakdown page
do Kyle Van Noy and Jeremiah Attaochu have an nfl-ready skill set?
At different points in my evaluation process, I really liked both Van Noy and Attaochu. But I have nagging doubts about both.
I'd put Van Noy in the old tweener category. I'm not sure he's dynamic enough to bend the edge as a pass rusher and I don't think he's strong enough to play with his hand down in a base defense or clearly athletic enough to hold his own in coverage off the line of scrimmage. I've seen some analysts suggest that 4-3 strong side linebacker may be his best role. I think there's some validity to that, but no one should mistake Van Noy for a Von Miller like talent.
I may be too hard on Van Noy here. The instincts and positional versatility are there and he was nearly as dominant as Dee Ford against the same Senior Bowl competition. If he goes to a flexible scheme where he doesn't have to be the primary pass rusher, he should do well.
Attaochu may grow into a stud. There are times where he looked dominant on film. But he completely disappeared during Senior Bowl week, where he was used primarily as a strong side linebacker. He may have been thinking more than playing as a result, but he had no success in one-on-one drills against the same players Dee Ford, Chris Smith and Kyle Van Noy were beating regularly.
If he develops, the athleticism is there for Attaochu to become a consistent pass rusher. But there's work to be done.
Kyle Van Noy's Draft Breakdown page ||| Jeremiah Attaochu's Draft Breakdown page
OTHER PLAYERS OF INTEREST
Some of these players may be drafted in the first three rounds. All of them have at least one intriguing quality and could end up as valuable rotation players or more.
Trent Murphy | Michael Sam |
Aaron Lynch | Jackson Jeffcoat |
James Gayle | Trevor Reilly |
WHO HAS THE MOST FANTASY FRIENDLY DRAFT NEED?
In addition to Dallas, Buffalo and Jacksonville, who each have openings for a pass rushing defensive end, these 3-4 teams are in need of a edge player at outside linebacker. But it must be noted that a strong defense can never have too many pass rushers.
- Houston ~ Whitney Mercilus may still improve but Texans need an impact pass rusher to play with J.J. Watt
- Arizona ~ John Abraham is 36 years old and the current depth is replacement level at best
- San Francisco ~ Aldon Smith cannot be counted on, Corey Lemonier still an unknown
- Atlanta ~ Transitioning to a 3-4 front and could use an anchor pass rush talent
- Indianapolis ~ I still don't believe Bjoern Werner is a fit at OLB
- New Orleans ~ Junior Galette underrated and Cam Jordan is amazing, but room for another edge rusher
- New York Jets ~ Stud 5-tech ends, but Rex Ryan needs an elite edge player to pair with Quinton Coples
- Pittsburgh ~ Will be thinking about developmental prospect as hedge for Jason Worilds
SMART WAYS TO PREP FOR THE DRAFT
DraftBreakdown.com ~ There's no substitute for your own eyes. The guys at Draft Breakdown make scouting college games easy with 7-10 minute videos edited down to include every snap taken by a player in a single college game with the player highlighted for easy reference on each snap. Every prospect has a library of five games (and sometimes as many as 10-12).
Matt Waldman's Rookie Scouting Portfolio ~ I'm clearly biased, since Matt (along with Sigmund Bloom) are my closest friends in the business. But you won't find a more detailed draft guide that stays true to process. You may not agree with every conclusion Matt makes, but you owe it to yourself to consider them.
Dane Brugler's Draft Guide PDF ~ Clean, easy to follow, packed with details and information and film study, this PDF rivals anything a long time draft lover like me enjoyed about the guides put out by Jerry Jones, Frank Coyne and Russ Lande over the years.
Sigmund Bloom's On The Couch podcasts ~ I'm continually amazed at how much depth Bloom gets out of his guests each week. This show runs nearly year-round, but the months of March and April are dedicated to draft talk you shouldn't miss. The warehouse link to the Audible podcast feed will also take you to a handful of great draft interviews by Cecil Lammey.
Fran Duffy's Scout's Notebook series ~ If you're not sure what to look for while watching the Draft Breakdown cutups or why those you follow on Twitter focus on the traits they do, this video series is a great primer. Separated into short positional segments, Duffy is joined by Mike Mayock, Greg Cosell, Josh Norris and Phil Savage and many others to talk about what they're looking for when watching tape.
Ross Tucker's interviews with Greg Cosell ~ Tucker and Cosell got together every Wednesday for the past two months to discuss their feelings on the draft by position. If you've missing missing your Cosell - Doug Farrar fix, you can get a quick fix here.
Doug Farrar's SI 64 ~ The Shutdown 50 has become the SI 64, with Doug (along with Chris Burke) profiling their top draft prospects. I'm still holding out hope that Doug can find a way to bring back his amazing podcast series with Cosell. Until then, his strong work at the Audibles blog is not to be missed.
Twitter follows ~ I'm hesitant because I know I'm going to miss somebody I shouldn't here, so the safest thing to do is subscribe to Bloom's draft list. But it'll be hard not to be distracted by Twitter while doing our live draft hangouts waiting for comments by Dane Brugler, Lance Zierlein, Evan Silva, Eric Stoner, Doug Farrar, Mike Tanier, Greg Cosell, Eric Galko, Cian Fahey, Russ Lande, Ryan Riddle, Josh Norris, Rumford Johnny, and Alen Dumonjic. They are all strong year-round follows but make sure they're on your timeline on draft weekend.
Follow and ask questions on Twitter @JeneBramel. Reading the Defense will be a regular feature this offseason with free agent commentary, draft prospect previews, tier discussion, links to our offseason IDP roundtable podcasts and much more. Subscribe to The Audible on iTunes or download our IDP podcast here.