Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Note that the links above are for 2013 articles. Please see the Week 7 2014 Page at Footballguys.com for the 2014 Week 5 updates.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s pre-season plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week, along with the results and standings so far:
Staffer | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Dan Hindery | 6-0 | PHI | DEN | INDY | SD | GB | BAL | NE | ||||||||||
James Brimacombe | 6-0 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | GB | SF | SEA | ||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 6-0 | PIT | GB | NE | SD | NO | DEN | BUF | ||||||||||
Dave Larkin | 5-1 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | TEN | BAL | ||||||||||
Justin Bonnema | 5-1 | NYJ | WASH | NE | SD | DET | TEN | CHI | ||||||||||
Maurile Tremblay | 5-1 | DEN | AZ | NE | PIT | CIN | TEN | SEA | ||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 5-1 | PHI | GB | NE | PIT | SD | DEN | CLE | ||||||||||
Jeff Haseley | 5-1 | NYJ | DEN | NE | PIT | SD | AZ | DAL | ||||||||||
Jason Wood | 5-1 | PIT | HOU | NE | ATL | SD | DEN | SEA | ||||||||||
Bear Heiser | 5-1 | PHI | NO | NE | SD | PIT | GB | SEA | ||||||||||
Alessandro Miglio | 5-1 | NYJ | TB | NE | SD | NO | DEN | X | ||||||||||
John Lee | 5-1 | PIT | TB | NE | SD | GB | TEN | WASH | ||||||||||
Clayton Gray | 4-2 | PHI | DEN | NE | SD | DET | SEA | BAL | ||||||||||
Steve Buzzard | 4-2 | PHI | DEN | NO | PIT | GB | SEA | NE | ||||||||||
Andrew Garda | 4-2 | PHI | AZ | MIA | PIT | NYG | TEN | X | ||||||||||
Matt Bitonti | 4-2 | NYJ | SEA | NE | PIT | PHI | DEN | BUF | ||||||||||
Mark Wimer | 4-2 | NYJ | TB | CIN | WASH | GB | TEN | CLE | ||||||||||
Steve Holloway | 4-2 | CHI | DEN | CIN | PIT | NO | SD | BAL | ||||||||||
Ari Engel | 4-2 | NE | NO | CIN | SD | SEA | DEN | X | ||||||||||
William Grant | 3-3 | NYJ | GB | NO | PIT | NO | CIN | NE | ||||||||||
Andy Hicks | 3-3 | CHI | DEN | NO | SD | DET | CIN | NE | ||||||||||
Phil Alexander | 3-3 | PHI | TB | NE | PIT | DET | SD | AZ |
DISCUSSION
This year we have 22 staffers are in the pool, and if this was really a "one and done" tournament, we would be down to just three people left. I've often played in a "buyback pool", where after one loss you can still continue (for a second entry fee) - and if that was the case here, we would still be at 12 teams (12 of 22, or 55%). So there's no question that upsets rock the boat here, and you really need to just take the best team each week and hope for a quick ending in smaller leagues (about 50 teams or less). In large tournaments or those with buybacks (or even like here, where best record wins), you do need to plan.
Last week was tricky for those who chose either Cincinnati or Carolina (most would have chosen the Bengals) with the tie. This is where the Eliminator / Survivor Pool rules really come into play. Most leagues like this state that you must pick a "WINNING team", not just a team that does not lose. That's tricky for some to figure out, so I really recommend any league commissioner to explicitly state what happens if there is a tie game in the NFL. It's happening more often now with each team getting a possession in OT (one tie now three seasons in a row), so cover your bases.
Most of the staff survived just fine last week, but two were tripped up by Cincinnati and two others picked the wrong week to take Seattle at home. That's something to consider when you are looking at what looks like a sure home win. Be hesitant to pick against road teams with explosive offenses, hot teams and teams that are in the same conference. All three can trip you up, as was the case with the Seahawks in Week 6.
One other point I wanted to make about Week 6 - I was very concerned about taking San Diego against Oakland last week. Divisional matchup between rivals and also Oakland was coming off of a bye and have a new coach - all reasons to consider looking at other teams. Also keep that in mind the rest of 2014 and in future seasons.
So how does Week 7 look? Well, we have quite the spread of picks here once again, as nine different teams were chosen at least once. The most popular were New England at home against the Jets and Seattle on the road at St. Louis. The selection of the Patriots makes a lot of sense given that New England is the most favored team according to Las Vegas for Week 7. The choice of Seattle has to be a little scary, as the Rams have been very competitive within the division despite a weak record this year. Baltimore was the next most common pick with three staffers choosing the Ravens to beat Atlanta at home, while Buffalo (hosting Minnesota) and Cleveland (at Jacksonville) received two picks each. Finally, four unique picks of Arizona, Chicago, Dallas and Washington round out the list of 19 picks in right now. It should make for a lively week.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I really do not like this week's choices. I am looking at all of the games with a touchdown Las Vegas point spread, and I see several that I want no part of this week. I have used up New England, so they are out. That leaves the Packers, Seattle, Baltimore, Denver and Dallas as 6-point favorites or more. Seattle on the road against a divisional team feels like a lock, but anything could happen here. Green Bay? Not after struggling against Miami and with Carolina scoring 37 last week. Baltimore hosts Atlanta, but the Falcons can beat anyone and the Ravens just struggled against the Colts a few weeks ago. Denver hosts the 49ers, and San Francisco has looked so good lately that an upset would not surprise me. Dallas is Dallas, and hosting the Giants in an NFC East clash also scares me. So where does that leave me? Fading Jacksonville, of course. I cannot see a better time to use the Browns than right here, right now - so I am taking the Browns.
Note that this completely goes against the preseason plan that said to take the Bears at home against Miami, but I was not that confident with Week 7 in the first place and the Bears can win or lose to anyone at any given time. I might still take them in Week 12 (home against Tampa Bay) but we'll see in a month or so.
Steve Buzzard: Last week was a tough week for my Seahawks pick and the popular Bengals pick. Hopefully your league allowed picks later in the week and you went with the Cardinals as most people went off them as I did in one pool or used the Broncos in a small pool which you should still be alive in following these picks. With about 1/3 your pool getting cut this week we are going to shift our focus a little. Over 50 people left should continue to look at all 17 weeks but if you are down to 20 you can probably stop planning much after week 12, 10 around week 10 and everyone else just keep picking the best value.
One thing to keep in mind that is really important as you get to the end game of your pool is that it makes more sense now than ever to take a slightly contrarian pick if you think everyone else in the pool is going to go with the chalk pick. One lucky break and you could win the whole thing.
This is one of the weeks where saving back some of the better teams should start to pay off as I am going to heavily suggest taking the Patriots in both big and small pools. The Patriots are 10 point favorites over the Jets and both teams are going in the opposite direction. With Rob Gronkowski finally starting to get healthy and the Jets susceptible to the pass this looks like as safe of a game the Patriots will have all year. Even better the Patriots are only being picked by 22% of teams making them one of the best values all year. This is thanks to us going against the Patriots in week 3 when over half the field went with them. The Patriots always seem to have extra problems with the Jets so hopefully this isn’t one of those weeks but I feel as comfortable with this pick as about any so far.
If you have already used the Patriots there isn't really a great pick left because the other popular picks (Seattle, Arizona, and Cleveland) are being picked by too many teams given their odds of winning making them poor choices. Additionally I don't want to use Denver or Baltimore as they have better matchups later in the season.
This leaves the Packers vs the Panthers as my backup in small leagues but I will save them for a later date in deeper leagues and select the Cowboys against the Giants. I am very worried about this game as it is an interdivisional game and the Cowboys are coming off such an impressive win while the Giants are coming off such a disappointing loss. It feels like a trap game but like I said I don’t see a better option available unless you want to really get risky and go with the Redskins. But that one isn’t for me.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.