Player Spotlight: Eric Ebron

Photo: USA Today Sports

The "No Growth" Outlook Makes NO SENSE

At the time of this article, Eric Ebron's consensus ranking among the staff is TE13:

With apologies to many of my fellow staff members, that ranking makes NO SENSE.

1. Ebron ranked TE13 last year -- the consensus ranking assumes ZERO growth year over year
2. Ebron is entering his 3rd season, and is still an ascending player
3. The Lions are a pass happy offense that came alive in the second half of the season under OC Jim Bob Cooter
4. Calvin Johnson retired
5. Free agent Marvin Jones is incapable of replacing Calvin Johnson by himself (if at all)
6. He's yet to play a full 16-game schedule

Further growth should be the baseline expectation

• Targets -- 70 (+23)
• Receptions -- 47 (+22)
• Catch Rate -- 67% (+14%)
• Yards per Catch -- 11.4 (+1.5)
• Yards -- 537 (+289)
• Touchdowns -- 5 (+4)
• TD Rate -- 11% (+7%)

Calvin Johnson's Retirement = Targets Aplenty

• Calvin Johnson (149 times) -- Must be replaced
• Golden Tate (129 times) -- Ascends into Stafford's #1 target, but is he the caliber of player to handle 150+ targets?
• Theo Riddick (99 times) -- A key outlet as a receiver out of the backfield but was targeted the 2nd most of any RB in the league last year. Very few running backs are ever targeted 100+ times, so it's hard to imagine Riddick seeing increased looks

What About Marvin Jones?

Marvin Jones was signed to a 5-year, $40 million contract with $20 million guaranteed. He'll 'replace' Calvin Johnson in the starting lineup but that's where the similarities end. Let me be clear, if the Lions really plan on replacing Calvin Johnson's 9 targets per game with Marvin Jones, the offense is going to struggle mightily.

• Jones has missed 33% of his NFL career due to injury (Johnson missed 6% of his games)
• Jones has never been 1,000-yard receiver
• Jones is 6'2", 198 lbs. (vs 6'5", 239 lbs. for Megatron)
• Jones ran a 4.5 40 before his foot injuries (Johnson ran a 4.35)
• Jones has averaged 12.9 yards per catch (vs. 15.9 for Johnson)

Let's Keep This Simple -- Eric Ebron Should See More Targets in 2016 Barring Injury

Any way you slice and dice the situation, Ebron will be more targeted this year. If you're more optimistic about Marvin Jones, Ebron may only see 80-85 targets this year (1 more per game), but if you're like me, 95+ targets seems like a lock.

Red Zone Specialist

While overall targets are an important consideration, the real reason why fantasy owners should be excited by Ebron is his ability to replace Calvin Johnson in the red zone. Take a look at the Lions' red zone targets over the last two seasons:

Detroit Lions Red Zone Targets (2014-2015)

Not surprisingly, Calvin Johns is Matthew Stafford's top target in the red zone. Golden Tate, in spite of his size, was targeted as much but his TD rate was far less impressive (25%). Ebron was targeted 13 times, but scored 6 touchdowns (46% rate).

Let's broaden our look at TD% to the entire league, to better emphasize how illogical it would be to target the likes of Golden Tate or Marvin Jones at the expense of more red zone looks for Ebron.

NFL Red Zone TD% (2014-2015, Minimum 10 Targets)

If you're Matthew Stafford and Jim Bob Cooter, which of these choices gets more red zone targets?

1. The 5'10", 199 lbs. receiver that's already being targeted as often as Calvin Johnson, but only converting 25% of the time? [Golden Tate]
2. The 6'2", 198 lbs. receiver with a dismal 16.7% conversion rate in his last two season? [Marvin Jones]
3. The 6'4", 265 lbs. tight end who ranks 10th among all NFL receivers in red zone conversion rate? [Eric Ebron]

Positives

• Ebron is young, in great shape, and a physical marvel (6'4", 265 lbs.) with a proven ability to produce in the red zone
• OC Jim Bob Cooter reignited the Lions offense midway through the 2015 season, and now has an entire offseason to implement his scheme
• Matthew Stafford remains a high volume passer
• Calvin Johnson retired, leaving a gaping hole for targets (overall and in the red zone)
• The running game didn't improve much in the offseason, so a major change to the run/pass balance seems unlikely
• Ebron showed significant improvement from Year One to Year Two, yet fantasy owners are pricing in a leveling off entering Year Three

Negatives

• Ebron has struggled with drops at times
• Marvin Jones was signed to a boatload of money and will be force fed a heavy role
• Ebron must continue to improve as a blocker in order to be on the field in all downs and distances

Projections

Final Thoughts

Other Thoughts

Round 1 drafted tight ends are one of the best fantasy investments around. The position is typically slow to get up to speed, but top-drafted ones like Eric Ebron are rock-solid career arc bets to be a fantasy starter. Even Brandon Pettigrew emerged for 11 and 12 PPG within his first three NFL seasons. Ebron has been lackluster to develop through two years, but the opportunity is aligning. Detroit is near the top of the list for teams with available targets from 2015, as I mentioned in my 'Passing Game Shuffle' post. Calvin Johnson's 150 targets are gone of note. Ebron saw 70 targets a year ago and 100+ are within reach in 2016. 

If your draft strategy is to wait on the position, then Ebron, who finished 13th in total fantasy points in standard scoring formats last year among tight ends, may represent the opportunity to draft a fairly safe mid-range option, but he could also give the upside of a weekly difference maker.