Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.
Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two pre-season articles, first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:
The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.
This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).
THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY
Here are the picks for this week.
Staff Member | Record | Wk01 | Wk02 | Wk03 | Wk04 | Wk05 | Wk06 | Wk07 | Wk08 | Wk09 | Wk10 | Wk11 | Wk12 | Wk13 | Wk14 | Wk15 | Wk16 | Wk17 |
Andy Hicks | 3-0 | SEA | NE | GB | CIN | |||||||||||||
Chris Kuczynski | 3-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | DET | |||||||||||||
Mark Wimer | 3-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | MIN | |||||||||||||
Matt Bitonti | 3-0 | KC | BAL | MIA | CIN | |||||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | 3-0 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | |||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | 3-0 | HOU | CAR | MIA | AZ | |||||||||||||
Alex Miglio | 3-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | DET | |||||||||||||
John Mamula | 3-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | HOU | |||||||||||||
William Grant | 3-0 | SEA | CAR | MIA | WASH | |||||||||||||
Clayton Gray | 3-0 | SEA | DEN | MIA | CIN | |||||||||||||
Bear Heiser | 3-0 | GB | CAR | SEA | CIN | |||||||||||||
Dave Larkin | 3-0 | HOU | CAR | SEA | NE | |||||||||||||
Ari Ingel | 2-1 | SEA | TEN | AZ | CIN | |||||||||||||
Andrew Garda | 2-1 | PHI | BAL | NYG | HOU | |||||||||||||
Jason Wood | 2-1 | HOU | NYJ | TB | AZ | |||||||||||||
Justin Howe | 2-1 | BAL | DET | MIA | HOU | |||||||||||||
Devin Knotts | 2-1 | HOU | DET | MIA | CIN | |||||||||||||
Justin Bonnema | 2-1 | HOU | JAX | MIA | CIN | |||||||||||||
Jeff Haseley | 2-1 | KC | SEA | DAL | CIN | |||||||||||||
James Brimacombe | 2-1 | INDY | CAR | MIA | WASH | |||||||||||||
Chris Feery | 1-2 | SEA | OAK | CAR | AZ |
DISCUSSION
Twenty-one staffers are in the pool this year, and we picked up a few more red marks after Week 3. Three more losses appear on the standings thanks to Arizona's poor showing in the dreaded "West Coast team heading East for a 1PM game" window. The Giants fell to their division rivals (always fade divisional games if you can, remember?) and Tampa Bay just being bad, both on the field and in clock management. That leaves only 12 of the 21 staff members at 3-0 entering Week 4 action. How challenging will it be this week?
This week's picks are in, and so much for "chalk picks" with seven different teams picked in Week 4. The vast majority (8 of 21) went with the home team on Thursday Night Football, picking the Bengals to win over the Dolphins on a short week. Not a bad call at all, but the second-most common pick was Arizona with four selections. Clearly the thought here is for the Cardinals to bounce back at home against the Rams (although here is another divisional game). Houston (3), Washington (2) and Detroit (2) were the other three teams picked as all of them are favored this week. Washington is a big favorite at home against Cleveland, while Houston looks to right their ways (and score some points) at home against Tennessee after a poor showing in New England in Week 3. Detroit is a road favorite in Chicago, giving this call two strikes (road team, divisional game) in the normal "survivor rules of engagement", so it will be interesting to see how that one plays out. A few unique picks are on the list as well with Dave Larkin taking New England at home against Buffalo (is this for the Patriots, or against the Bills?) and Mark Wimer taking the Vikings at home against the Giants on Monday Night Football. Looks like we will have to wait until Tuesday to get the final results this week.
Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor / Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.
COMMENTARY
Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.
Jeff Pasquino: I decided to go back to the script of my preseason plan and select the Arizona Cardinals this week. (Interestingly enough, both my pick here in Miami and my preseason pick of Green Bay both won in Week 3, and the Packers were the safer picks - hindsight is 20/20). The Cardinals need to shake off that bad loss at Buffalo, and a home game against Los Angeles should be the right recipe for just that. With Las Vegas only having three games with teams favored by a touchdown or more (Cincinnati and Washington are the others), I went with the Cardinals at home in need of a win. Much like Green Bay last week, this is a "get right" game for Carson Palmer and company. I don't mind the Bengals pick at all but I am looking to use them later in the year. I do mind the Washington pick, as I first circled this game as a revenge game (Robert Griffin III III back to D.C.) but that narrative went away with his injury. That said, Cleveland has not looked bad in the ground game, and that is the major weakness for Washington. Throw in that the Redskins are going to be minus two starting defensive backs (although Josh Norman will still be in action) and I can see the Browns playing this one a lot closer than some might expect. If Kirk Cousins struggles early, the crowd will get restless and could turn on him. I can see a path for Cleveland to win this game, as they are hungry for their first win and have been close the past two weeks. Throw in that I don't know when else they may get that elusive "W" any time soon and I would be very wary about picking Washington this week. In fact, in “For The Win” this week I am calling for the upset by the Browns.
But I digress. I still pick the Cardinals to dust themselves off and forget that bad loss in Buffalo from Sunday and to win big this week over the Rams.
The Pick: Arizona
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.