Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season. Let's get started with Week 1, which can be a difficult week to make choices. If you have been on top of the NFL to this point and all through preseason, this might afford you a good advantage and help you to get off to a fast start. Hopefully this will be the case this year.
Let’s just get to it – Week 3 was not good. It was a rough one, no matter how you slice it. These types of weeks happen, and it is why you can’t heavily invest in just one week. You take the lump and you move on, hopefully learning a few things from the rough go of it – kind of like how Pittsburgh feels after last week. So now we turn the page to Week 4, with two teams on a bye (Green Bay and Philadelphia) and a game in London as well. Hopefully this week is the start of the confluence of knowledge of teams and good selections. Let's get started.
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
(Thursday) CINCINNATI (-7) vs. MIAMI
First of all, I think the Bengals win this game, but a full touchdown is where I am having a problem. I get that the Dolphins had to go to overtime to beat Cleveland, but there were turnovers and gimmicky plays that the Browns used to build a lead and they honestly should have won that game, but Denver just threw the ball all over the place against Cincinnati, and that is the strength of the Dolphins. Can we expect the Bengals to repair that secondary in less than a week? This is a lot more of a tough call than you might think it is, but I think that the Bengals rest TE Tyler Eifert one more game (to give him another 10+ days to get ready for Week 5) and rely on Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard. Miami gave up over 100 yards receiving to Terrelle Pryor, and A.J. Green is way better. Throw in that this is Cincinnati’s last home game until Week 7 and Cincinnati gets a national audience on themselves Thursday – both of those facts lead me to believe that the Bengals get up for this game and push Miami down to 0-4 in a convincing manner. Cincinnati cannot afford to fall to 1-3 with both Pittsburgh (2-1) and Baltimore (3-0) ahead of them already. Miami will score some points, but I like the Bengals to win by 10, 30-20. PICK: Bengals
JACKSONVILLE (+2.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS (LONDON)
Jacksonville did not come to play against Baltimore last week at home, which was a bit surprising. What wasn’t surprising was Allen Robinson finding the end zone, twice, in Week 3. Look for the Jaguars to exploit a weak Colts secondary while Andrew Luck tries to keep pace. I think that Jacksonville can win this game outright and make a statement that they are a team ready to compete for the AFC South crown, which is a title that is wide open now that J.J. Watt could be out for the season. The winner of this game moves to 2-2 overall and 1-0 in the division, and could be tied atop the group if the Texans stumble against Tennessee (probably not, but it could happen). Jacksonville always plays the Colts tough and they will enjoy making the trip to London once again, a trip that they have made every year since 2013. That familiarity will help as Indianapolis has never made that trip. I like how this one shapes up for Blake Bortles and company. Jacksonville wins outright. PICK: Jaguars
HOUSTON (-5) vs. TENNESSEE
The Texans have been off for more than a week now and that 27-0 drubbing at the hands of New England has to have left a very bad taste in their mouths. Now the news got worse this week with J.J. Watt possibly out for the year, which has also moved the line in this game down from -7 or -6.5 all the way to -5.5, and could move further. Last I checked, however, Tennessee has not looked very good and only has one win, a one point nail biter against Detroit. In three contests so far, the Titans have yet to top the 16-point mark, but we are thinking that they can compete with a very motivated Houston team? Granted the defense will not be the same without Watt, but I expect the Houston offense to be very hungry to put up some points after getting shut out. I like the Texans here by double digits. PICK: Texans
CLEVELAND (+8.5) at WASHINGTON
Originally I had this game as an upset special a few weeks back when I thought it would be the return of Robert Griffin III III to D.C., but all that changed with his injury. Now Washington returns home to try and get to 2-2 after a very big win at the Giants last week in a game that was back and forth. Week 3 was the first time that Washington got into the end zone all season, while Cleveland should have won at Miami last week if not for missed field goals. I think Terrelle Pryor shows more speed again this week and the Browns run the ball a ton against a bad Washington run defense to at least keep this game close, if not steal it outright. Deep down, Cleveland knows that this might be one of their few chances this season to pick up a win, so I expect them to play hard for it. PICK: Browns
NEW YORK JETS (+3) vs. SEATTLE
Arizona got burned last week as a West Coast team traveling to the East Coast for a 1PM kickoff, and I think that Seattle might be in the same boat in Week 4. This is their last game before their bye and they are coming off two tough games in the division. Playing an AFC team on the road is a trap here. The Jets are home for the first time since Week 1 and for their only home game until Week 7, so I like their motivation here in front of a home crowd. Russell Wilson is not 100% and the Jets know that they have to stop Christine Michael first and then get after Wilson. Seattle has given up points and yards and been in tough scraps every week, and I see another close one. Give me a home underdog here getting a field goal with a good shot at the upset. PICK: Jets
NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) vs. BUFFALO
Who would have thought that the Patriots could be 4-0 without Tom Brady? I bet not even Brady thought that, but here we are, one win at home against the Bills away from making that happen. I don’t see any reason to not think that New England gets it done. Shut down LeSean McCoy and take your chances, and just get enough production on offense to get the win. Sounds simple, and yet no one can stop them. PICK: Patriots
CAROLINA (-3) at ATLANTA
I haven’t had a “Stone Cold Lock of the Year” in a while, but here we go. Carolina -3. Really. REALLY? The Panthers go iinto the Georgia Dome to face their divisional rival that cost them a 16-0 season last year with a Week 16 upset. Carolina has an opportunity here to right their record to 2-2, move to 1-0 in the division and back atop the NFC South standings. I think Cam Newton cannot wait to get after that Falcons defense that just let the Saints score 32 points. Watch the Panthers top 40 points in this one and run (and throw) the ball all over the place come Sunday. PICK: Panthers
OAKLAND (+3.5) at BALTIMORE
Here is another team heading to the East Coast (again for Oakland after visiting Tennessee). First strike on the Raiders – jet lag. The Ravens head home at 3-0 to host Oakland, a team that has given up 30+ points to both the Saints and the Falcons this season, but what happened in Week 3? Oakland gave up just 10 points against Tennessee, who was without Delanie Walker, but still – only 10 points? On the road? For a defense that was crushed the first two weeks? Digging in, the Raiders changed defensive personnel as LB Corey James and first round pick safety Karl Joseph both started on Sunday. That seemed to reinvent that defense, and it all clicked. Speaking of clicking, Baltimore is starting to click on offense with Steve Smith, Mike Wallace and Dennis Pitta all seeing plenty of targets from Joe Flacco. I see the Ravens attempting to carve up the Raider secondary on Sunday but Oakland’s offense will also test Baltimore. This is a close call, so I am taking the points in a clear tossup for me. PICK: Raiders
DETROIT (-2.5) at CHICAGO
In a word – yuck. Both teams cannot stop anyone right now, as both the Lions (loss to Green Bay, 34-27) and the Bears (loss to Dallas, 31-17) gave up 30+ points to the opposition in Week 3. The good news for Detroit is that they can throw the ball, plus they have a good quarterback in Matthew Stafford that can hit several targets against a bad Chicago secondary. Rookie Jordan Howard might play well against the Lions, but the passing game from Detroit is going to make this game out of reach for Chicago. PICK: Lions
DENVER (-3) at TAMPA BAY
Denver has to travel nearly cross country again, but they do get rewarded by facing Tampa Bay at 4PM Eastern. That certainly helps the Broncos, as does being the much better team. Tampa Bay gave up 37 points at home to the Rams and made them look like they actually had an offense, while the Broncos outclassed the Bengals with four passing touchdowns despite not being able to get the run game going. I see both phases of the offense rolling and the defense stuffing the Buccaneers this week as Denver wins big, something like 34-13. PICK: Broncos
ARIZONA (-8) vs. LOS ANGELES
L.A. is in first place at 2-1. Think about that for a moment. Wins over Seattle at home followed by a road win in Tampa Bay last week pushed Los Angeles to a 2-1 mark and the lead in the NFC West. Arizona lost on the road in Buffalo, which certainly made for a long flight home. Now the Cardinals get to host the Rams with a 2-2 record on the line and a tie for first place. Do you think Arizona will be up for this one? I certainly do. Take the Cardinals in a rout against a team that should not have a winning record. Cardinals 34, Rams 16. PICK: Cardinals
SAN DIEGO (-3.5) vs. NEW ORLEANS
San Diego heads home after a bad loss in Indianapolis with a lot of “what could have been” thoughts in their minds from the close loss to the Colts. Now the Chargers get to host Drew Brees and the Saints, a team that just gave up 45 points and a ton of yards to Atlanta on Monday Night Football. Drew Brees never plays great on the road – but keep in mind that he used to be a Charger. He has faced his former team twice – both in the Superdome – and have topped 300 yards passing with 7 total touchdowns against just one interception in those two contests. Oh yes, he also won both those games. Now, those were in 2008 and 2012, so that probably has little or no bearing on a 2016 game, so I will side with the home team and the better defense to win a high scoring contest. Chargers 37, Saints 27. PICK: Chargers
DALLAS (-2.5) at SAN FRANCISCO
Dallas looked very strong against the Bears on Sunday Night Football, while San Francisco got pummeled by the Seahawks in Week 3. I have to believe that the Cowboys will be licking their chops at running the ball against the 49ers after what Christine Michael was able to do last week. Dallas should be able to secure a road win here and cover a few points. PICK: Cowboys
KANSAS CITY (+6) at PITTSBURGH
The Steelers are reeling after a bad loss to the Eagles last week, but Pittsburgh gets a big boost with the return of LeVeon Bell from his three game suspension. The problem for the Steelers is the game film that is now out there after the Eagles game, which may have shown some holes in their defense. The Steelers were already dealing with a suspect secondary, but Philadelphia not only threw the ball well but they ran it against the Steelers all game. The biggest stat I have for this game is that Kansas City has the lowest opposing quarterback rating (51.5) and they picked off Ryan Fitzpatrick six times last week. Ben Roethlisberger can have those bad types of games, and I wonder if he will not have the bounce back performance many may be hoping for this week. I like the Chiefs overall in this spot, but I absolutely love them getting points. PICK: Chiefs
(Monday) MINNESOTA (-4) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
So how exactly are the Giants going to move the ball on Monday night? Their running game is a shambles, so they will have to throw the ball. If Cam Newton struggled last week at home, how well do you believe that Eli Manning will do on the road in that new stadium in Minnesota? The Vikings have one of the best overall defenses right now and they will be coming after Manning all night. If the Vikings continue with that league-best turnover rate (+8), I see Minnesota scoring again on defense and Sam Bradford re-connecting with Stefon Diggs for another big game at home. Vikings 23, Giants 16. PICK: Giants
BEST BETS
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- JACKSONVILLE (+2.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS (LONDON)
- JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 49) (LONDON)
- NEW YORK JETS (+3) vs. SEATTLE
- NEW ENGLAND (-4.5) vs. BUFFALO
- DETROIT (-2.5) at CHICAGO
- ARIZONA (-8) vs. LOS ANGELES
- KANSAS CITY (+6) at PITTSBURGH
- JACKSONVILLE “FOR THE WIN” (+125) vs. INDIANAPOLIS (LONDON)
- KANSAS CITY “FOR THE WIN” (+210) at PITTSBURGH
- 2-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER: JACKSONVILLE (+8.5) vs. INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 43) (LONDON)
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (3-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) CINCINNATI (-1) vs. MIAMI
- NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. BUFFALO
- CAROLINA (+3) at ATLANTA
- JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 43) (LONDON)
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) CINCINNATI (-1) vs. MIAMI
- NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. BUFFALO
- CAROLINA (+3) at ATLANTA
- JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 43) (LONDON)
- ARIZONA (-2) vs. LOS ANGELES
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- (Thursday) CINCINNATI (-1) vs. MIAMI
- NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. BUFFALO
- CAROLINA (+3) at ATLANTA
- JACKSONVILLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS (OVER 43) (LONDON)
- ARIZONA (-2) vs. LOS ANGELES
- DENVER (+3) at TAMPA BAY
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- CLEVELAND (+8.5) at WASHINGTON
- DENVER (-3) at TAMPA BAY
- (Monday) MINNESOTA (-4) vs. NEW YORK GIANTS
- CLEVELAND “FOR THE WIN” (+325) at WASHINGTON
- 3-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (9-5 ODDS):
- (Thursday) CINCINNATI (-1) vs. MIAMI
- NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. BUFFALO
- CAROLINA (+3) at ATLANTA
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- (Thursday) CINCINNATI (-7) vs. MIAMI
**** STONE COLD LOCK OF THE YEAR – FOUR STAR GAME ****
- CAROLINA (-3) at ATLANTA
PICK(S) OF THE WEEK: Cincinnati, Jacksonville, New England, Carolina, Denver, Arizona, Minnesota
RESULTS
Last Week
- OVERALL: 5-11 (31.3%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 4-13 (23.5%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 2-3 (40%)
Season
- OVERALL: 24-24 (50%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 18.8-36 (34.3%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 11-9 (55%)
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.