Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | BAL | NYJ | JAX | HOU | KC | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | CLE | MIN | GB | STL | DAL | DET | ||||
Home Team: | PIT | MIA | INDY | ATL | CIN | BUF | CHI | WASH | TB | SD | DEN | SF | AZ | NO | SEA | ||||
Favorite: | BAL | NYJ | INDY | ATL | CIN | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | NO | SEA | ||||
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -2.5 | -9.5 | -6.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -7.5 | -6.5 | -9.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -9.5 | ||||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | Win% | ||||||||||||||
Jason Wood | PIT | MIA | JAX | ATL | CIN | NYG | CHI | WASH | CAR | SD | MIN | GB | AZ | NO | SEA | 45 | 10 | 37 | 58.7% |
Alessandro Miglio | BAL | NYJ | JAX | HOU | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | CLE | DEN | SF | STL | NO | SEA | 43 | 9 | 36 | 57.1% |
Andy Hicks | BAL | MIA | JAX | HOU | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | MIN | GB | STL | NO | SEA | 41 | 9 | 35 | 55.5% |
Maurile Tremblay | PIT | MIA | JAX | HOU | CIN | NYG | CHI | WASH | TB | CLE | MIN | SF | STL | DAL | DET | 42 | 9 | 32 | 50.7% |
Chris Feery | PIT | NYJ | JAX | ATL | CIN | NYG | OAK | WASH | TB | CLE | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 42 | 8 | 30 | 47.6% |
John Lee | BAL | NYJ | INDY | HOU | KC | NYG | CHI | WASH | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | NO | SEA | 44 | 8 | 32 | 50.7% |
Justin Howe | PIT | NYJ | INDY | HOU | KC | NYG | OAK | WASH | TB | CLE | MIN | GB | STL | DAL | DET | 41 | 8 | 33 | 52.3% |
Matt Bitonti | BAL | NYJ | INDY | ATL | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | CLE | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 42 | 8 | 34 | 53.9% |
Jeff Pasquino | BAL | NYJ | JAX | HOU | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 44 | 7 | 32 | 50.7% |
Andrew Garda | BAL | NYJ | JAX | ATL | CIN | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 45 | 7 | 31 | 49.2% |
Dave Larkin | BAL | MIA | JAX | ATL | CIN | NYG | OAK | WASH | TB | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 38 | 7 | 32 | 50.7% |
Mark Wimer | PIT | NYJ | INDY | ATL | CIN | BUF | OAK | WASH | CAR | CLE | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 38 | 7 | 34 | 53.9% |
William Grant | BAL | NYJ | JAX | ATL | CIN | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 41 | 7 | 36 | 57.1% |
Bear Heiser | PIT | NYJ | INDY | ATL | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 42 | 6 | 31 | 49.2% |
Clayton Gray | PIT | MIA | JAX | ATL | CIN | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | CLE | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 47 | 6 | 33 | 52.3% |
Phil Alexander | BAL | MIA | JAX | ATL | KC | NYG | OAK | WASH | CAR | SD | DEN | SF | AZ | DAL | SEA | 30 | 6 | 32 | 50.7% |
Dan Hindery | PIT | MIA | JAX | HOU | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | TB | CLE | DEN | SF | STL | DAL | SEA | 33 | 5 | 27 | 42.8% |
Danny Tuccitto | PIT | NYJ | INDY | ATL | KC | BUF | OAK | WASH | TB | CLE | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 49 | 5 | 32 | 50.7% |
Justin Bonnema | BAL | MIA | INDY | ATL | KC | NYG | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 48 | 5 | 33 | 52.3% |
Steve Holloway | PIT | NYJ | INDY | ATL | CIN | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 38 | 5 | 28 | 44.4% |
Aaron Rudnicki | PIT | MIA | INDY | HOU | CIN | NYG | OAK | PHI | TB | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 46 | 3 | 26 | 41.2% |
James Brimacombe | PIT | MIA | INDY | ATL | KC | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | GB | AZ | DAL | SEA | 44 | 3 | 25 | 39.6% |
Jeff Haseley | PIT | NYJ | INDY | HOU | CIN | BUF | OAK | PHI | CAR | SD | DEN | SF | AZ | DAL | SEA | 41 | 3 | 30 | 47.6% |
The entire group was doing so well until the late games kicked off, and then it all spiraled out of control from there. These picks collapsed in the late games with Denver (19), Arizona, (18), Dallas (19) and Seattle (21) giving the group 77 wrong picks. Ouch. That set the staff back to just over 50% in correct picks for the year at 731-718 (50.4%). Our best performance for the week goes to Jason Wood who had 10 of 15 games correct, followed by three other staff members who went 9 for 15 on the Week 4 slate. Here's hoping Week 5 plays out a little better for the group as a whole.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | INDY | WASH | CHI | CLE | SEA | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | SF | PIT | |
Home Team: | HOU | ATL | KC | BAL | CIN | TB | PHI | GB | TEN | DET | OAK | DAL | NYG | SD | |
Favorite: | HOU | ATL | KC | BAL | CIN | TB | PHI | GB | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | NYG | SD | |
Point Spread: | -1.5 | -7.5 | -9.5 | -6.5 | -1.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -9.5 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -5.5 | -8.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | INDY | ATL | CHI | BAL | CIN | JAX | NO | GB | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | NYG | SD | 47 |
Aaron Rudnicki | HOU | WASH | CHI | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | DET | DEN | NE | SF | PIT | 44 |
Alessandro Miglio | INDY | WASH | CHI | BAL | SEA | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | OAK | NE | NYG | SD | 50 |
Andrew Garda | INDY | ATL | CHI | CLE | CIN | TB | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | SF | SD | 40 |
Andy Hicks | HOU | WASH | CHI | BAL | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | OAK | DAL | NYG | PIT | 55 |
Bear Heiser | HOU | ATL | CHI | BAL | CIN | JAX | PHI | STL | TEN | AZ | OAK | NE | NYG | SD | 46 |
Chris Feery | INDY | ATL | CHI | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | NYG | SD | 46 |
Clayton Gray | HOU | ATL | CHI | BAL | CIN | JAX | PHI | STL | BUF | DET | OAK | NE | SF | SD | 49 |
Dan Hindery | HOU | WASH | KC | BAL | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | TEN | DET | DEN | NE | NYG | SD | 51 |
Danny Tuccitto | INDY | WASH | KC | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | GB | TEN | AZ | DEN | NE | NYG | PIT | 49 |
Dave Larkin | INDY | ATL | CHI | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | GB | TEN | DET | DEN | NE | SF | SD | 42 |
James Brimacombe | HOU | WASH | CHI | CLE | SEA | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | DET | DEN | NE | SF | PIT | 54 |
Jason Wood | INDY | WASH | CHI | BAL | SEA | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | SF | PIT | 48 |
Jeff Haseley | INDY | ATL | KC | BAL | SEA | JAX | PHI | STL | BUF | AZ | DEN | DAL | NYG | PIT | 48 |
John Lee | INDY | WASH | CHI | BAL | CIN | JAX | NO | GB | BUF | DET | DEN | NE | SF | PIT | 46 |
Justin Bonnema | INDY | WASH | CHI | CLE | SEA | TB | PHI | GB | TEN | AZ | DEN | DAL | SF | SD | 44 |
Mark Wimer | HOU | ATL | KC | CLE | SEA | JAX | PHI | GB | BUF | AZ | DEN | DAL | NYG | PIT | 48 |
Matt Bitonti | HOU | WASH | KC | BAL | CIN | JAX | PHI | GB | BUF | AZ | OAK | DAL | NYG | PIT | 45 |
Maurile Tremblay | HOU | WASH | CHI | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | TEN | AZ | OAK | DAL | SF | PIT | 49 |
Phil Alexander | INDY | ATL | KC | CLE | SEA | JAX | PHI | GB | TEN | AZ | DEN | NE | SF | SD | 45 |
Steve Holloway | HOU | ATL | KC | BAL | CIN | JAX | NO | STL | BUF | AZ | OAK | NE | SF | SD | 44 |
William Grant | INDY | ATL | CHI | CLE | CIN | JAX | NO | GB | BUF | AZ | DEN | NE | NYG | SD | 42 |
Justin Howe |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Four weeks are now behind us, so you would think that there would be some sort of better understanding of who are the dominant teams – but you would never know it from looking at the 22 sets of picks this week. No team was picked unanimously, and the closes was Jacksonville (20 of 22) on the road in Tampa Bay. A big gap exists to the next most common picks with Arizona and New England all receiving 16 selections on the week. Five more NFL teams (Philadelphia, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Denver and the underdog Bears) were picked 15 times including the team (Chicago) most expected to pull off the point spread upset. Las Vegas would love these sets of picks with five games nearly dead even (Houston / Indianapolis, Atlanta / Washington, Baltimore / Cleveland, San Francisco / New York Giants and San Diego / Pittsburgh) as the choices were split almost exactly in half for both contests. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
It's still quite early in the season, and the picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.