Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two. The Footballguys.com Staff Against the Spread Pool Challenge. Multiple staff members (23) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.
LAST WEEK'S RESULTS
Here are the results from last week:
Road Team: | CLE | TEN | MIA | WASH | JAX | OAK | STL | GB | NYG | ATL | DEN | PHI | CHI | ||||
Home Team: | CIN | NO | BUF | NE | NYJ | PIT | MIN | CAR | TB | SF | INDY | DAL | SD | ||||
Favorite: | CIN | NO | BUF | NE | NYJ | PIT | MIN | GB | NYG | ATL | DEN | PHI | SD | ||||
Point Spread: | -10.5 | -8.5 | -3.5 | -13.5 | -2.5 | -5.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -2.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 | -3.5 | ||||
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | LW | YtD | Win% | ||||||||||||
Aaron Rudnicki | CIN | NO | BUF | NE | NYJ | OAK | MIN | GB | NYG | ATL | DEN | PHI | CHI | 42 | 9 | 66 | 50.0% |
Bear Heiser | CLE | NO | BUF | NE | NYJ | OAK | STL | CAR | NYG | ATL | DEN | PHI | CHI | 46 | 8 | 67 | 50.7% |
Chris Feery | CIN | NO | BUF | NE | NYJ | OAK | STL | CAR | NYG | ATL | DEN | DAL | CHI | 49 | 8 | 63 | 47.7% |
Dave Larkin | CIN | NO | BUF | NE | NYJ | OAK | MIN | GB | TB | SF | DEN | DAL | CHI | 52 | 8 | 67 | 50.7% |
Justin Howe | CIN | TEN | MIA | NE | NYJ | OAK | MIN | CAR | TB | ATL | DEN | DAL | CHI | 51 | 8 | 73 | 55.3% |
Mark Wimer | CIN | NO | BUF | NE | JAX | OAK | STL | CAR | NYG | ATL | DEN | PHI | CHI | 38 | 8 | 70 | 53.0% |
Matt Bitonti | CIN | NO | BUF | NE | NYJ | PIT | MIN | CAR | NYG | ATL | DEN | PHI | SD | 52 | 8 | 71 | 53.7% |
Andy Hicks | CLE | TEN | BUF | WASH | NYJ | OAK | MIN | GB | NYG | ATL | DEN | PHI | SD | 58 | 7 | 73 | 55.3% |
Danny Tuccitto | CLE | NO | MIA | NE | NYJ | PIT | MIN | GB | NYG | ATL | INDY | PHI | CHI | 49 | 7 | 70 | 53.0% |
James Brimacombe | CIN | NO | MIA | NE | NYJ | PIT | MIN | GB | NYG | ATL | INDY | PHI | SD | 55 | 7 | 57 | 43.1% |
Jason Wood | CIN | NO | MIA | NE | JAX | OAK | MIN | GB | NYG | ATL | DEN | PHI | CHI | 47 | 7 | 74 | 56.0% |
Jeff Haseley | CIN | TEN | MIA | NE | NYJ | OAK | STL | CAR | NYG | ATL | DEN | DAL | SD | 49 | 7 | 60 | 45.4% |
Phil Alexander | CIN | TEN | BUF | NE | NYJ | PIT | MIN | GB | TB | ATL | DEN | PHI | SD | 47 | 7 | 71 | 53.7% |
Jeff Pasquino | CIN | NO | MIA | NE | JAX | OAK | STL | CAR | TB | ATL | DEN | PHI | CHI | 54 | 6 | 69 | 52.2% |
Andrew Garda | CLE | NO | MIA | NE | NYJ | OAK | MIN | GB | NYG | ATL | DEN | PHI | SD | 40 | 6 | 64 | 48.4% |
Clayton Gray | CIN | NO | BUF | NE | JAX | OAK | MIN | CAR | TB | ATL | DEN | DAL | SD | 57 | 6 | 68 | 51.5% |
John Lee | CLE | NO | MIA | NE | NYJ | OAK | STL | CAR | NYG | ATL | DEN | DAL | CHI | 46 | 6 | 72 | 54.5% |
Dan Hindery | CIN | NO | MIA | NE | JAX | OAK | STL | GB | TB | ATL | DEN | PHI | CHI | 47 | 5 | 56 | 42.4% |
Justin Bonnema | CLE | NO | MIA | NE | NYJ | OAK | MIN | GB | NYG | ATL | DEN | DAL | SD | 50 | 5 | 74 | 56.0% |
Maurile Tremblay | CLE | TEN | MIA | WASH | NYJ | OAK | STL | CAR | TB | ATL | DEN | DAL | CHI | 49 | 5 | 68 | 51.5% |
Steve Holloway | CLE | NO | MIA | NE | JAX | OAK | STL | CAR | NYG | ATL | DEN | PHI | SD | 52 | 5 | 54 | 40.9% |
William Grant | CIN | NO | MIA | NE | NYJ | OAK | MIN | GB | TB | ATL | DEN | DAL | SD | 47 | 5 | 69 | 52.2% |
Alessandro Miglio | CLE | NO | MIA | WASH | NYJ | OAK | MIN | GB | NYG | ATL | DEN | DAL | SD | 48 | 4 | 62 | 46.9% |
Aaron Rudnicki picked up the win in Week 9, nailing 9 of 13 games. Six more staffers were one game back and six more were 7 of 13 on the week. It was pretty rough overall as the group lost big on Denver (21) and Atlanta (22) but the Oakland (19) and New England (20) calls helped to ease the pain. The entire group did just average for the week, winning Week 9 overall (152-147, 50.8%) but just below the threshold for a winning week in Las Vegas. The good results kept the staff above 50% correct picks for the year at 1,538-1,498 (50.7%), which is not quite enough for the entire staff to be beating Las Vegas. Here's hoping that the winning ways continue for Week 10.
THIS WEEK'S PICKS
Here are the picks for this week:
Road Team: | BUF | JAX | MIA | CLE | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | DET | MIN | KC | NE | AZ | HOU | |
Home Team: | NYJ | BAL | PHI | PIT | TEN | STL | TB | WASH | GB | OAK | DEN | NYG | SEA | CIN | |
Favorite: | NYJ | BAL | PHI | PIT | CAR | STL | TB | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NE | SEA | CIN | |
Point Spread: | -2.5 | -6.5 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -5.5 | -8.5 | -1.5 | -1.5 | -11.5 | -3.5 | -6.5 | -7.5 | -3.5 | -10.5 | |
Staffer | The Picks | MNF | |||||||||||||
Jeff Pasquino | NYJ | JAX | PHI | PIT | CAR | STL | TB | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NE | SEA | CIN | 54 |
Aaron Rudnicki | NYJ | JAX | MIA | CLE | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | DET | MIN | KC | NE | SEA | CIN | 46 |
Alessandro Miglio | NYJ | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | WASH | DET | OAK | DEN | NE | SEA | HOU | 44 |
Andrew Garda | NYJ | JAX | PHI | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | GB | MIN | DEN | NE | AZ | CIN | 40 |
Andy Hicks | BUF | JAX | MIA | CLE | CAR | CHI | TB | WASH | GB | OAK | DEN | NYG | AZ | CIN | 48 |
Bear Heiser | NYJ | JAX | PHI | CLE | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NYG | AZ | CIN | 56 |
Chris Feery | NYJ | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | GB | MIN | KC | NE | AZ | CIN | 41 |
Clayton Gray | NYJ | JAX | PHI | CLE | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | GB | MIN | KC | NYG | AZ | CIN | 49 |
Dan Hindery | NYJ | JAX | MIA | CLE | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | GB | MIN | DEN | NYG | SEA | HOU | 45 |
Danny Tuccitto | NYJ | BAL | PHI | CLE | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | GB | MIN | DEN | NYG | AZ | HOU | 49 |
Dave Larkin | NYJ | BAL | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | WASH | GB | MIN | DEN | NYG | AZ | CIN | 52 |
James Brimacombe | NYJ | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | DET | OAK | DEN | NE | SEA | CIN | 57 |
Jason Wood | BUF | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | GB | MIN | DEN | NE | AZ | CIN | 48 |
Jeff Haseley | BUF | JAX | PHI | PIT | CAR | CHI | DAL | WASH | GB | MIN | KC | NE | AZ | CIN | 46 |
John Lee | NYJ | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NYG | AZ | HOU | 42 |
Justin Bonnema | BUF | JAX | PHI | PIT | CAR | CHI | TB | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NYG | AZ | HOU | 48 |
Justin Howe | BUF | JAX | MIA | PIT | TEN | CHI | TB | WASH | GB | OAK | KC | NYG | AZ | HOU | 47 |
Mark Wimer | NYJ | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NE | AZ | HOU | 52 |
Matt Bitonti | BUF | BAL | PHI | PIT | TEN | CHI | DAL | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NYG | AZ | CIN | 47 |
Maurile Tremblay | BUF | JAX | MIA | PIT | TEN | CHI | TB | WASH | DET | OAK | KC | NYG | SEA | HOU | 44 |
Phil Alexander | BUF | BAL | MIA | PIT | TEN | CHI | DAL | WASH | DET | OAK | DEN | NYG | SEA | HOU | 48 |
Steve Holloway | NYJ | JAX | MIA | PIT | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | DET | OAK | DEN | NYG | AZ | HOU | 39 |
William Grant | NYJ | BAL | PHI | PIT | CAR | CHI | DAL | NO | GB | OAK | DEN | NE | AZ | CIN | 46 |
CONSENSUS WINNERS
Nine weeks are now behind us, and we are getting closer to our first consensus pick. One team came very close for the group as 22 of 23 staffers chose the Bears to keep their contest with the Rams close enough to cover a big 8.5 point spread. Only myself went out on the limb with the Rams, which is mostly a big bet on Todd Gurley going off. The next most popular selections for Week 10 were Carolina (19), Jacksonville (18), Green Bay (17), Denver (17), New Orleans (16), Arizona (16) and the Jets (15). No other team was picked more than 14 times. Las Vegas would love these sets of picks with two games nearly dead even (New England / Giants and Cincinnati / Houston) as the choices were split almost exactly in half for these contests. It should be very interesting to see how it plays out.
ODDS AND ENDS
We are getting deeper into the season so we should know more, but picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.
A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 52.3% gets you into the “profitable zone” (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder that it might seem.
Good luck this weekend!
Questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.