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Here I am again this year, back for more NFL picks. Just like last season I will still be picking all of the NFL games each week, but I will try and help some of you with some confidence and rankings of the selections - which also may assist those of you with Las Vegas trips. I tend to rate games that I like (and some extras like Over/Unders) with 1-3 "Stars", which basically highlight my best bets for the week. Those games which have zero stars I don't truly like one way or the other, but will select to help those trying to get some advice for their weekly office pools or other contests that they may be participating in either this week or this season.
It was a strange week, as I went 8-5 with my picks but hitching my fate on Best Bets to several favorites that were upset made it a bad week in that category. What I take away from this is that my picking was solid, but my choice of weighting those picks was not. Can’t worry about that though – have to press on and see how it goes. I do like some contests this week, so let’s get started:
Note that the lines and Over/Unders are taken from VegasInsider.com.
Bye week teams: Atlanta, Indianapolis, San Diego, San Francisco
Teams returning from a bye: Detroit, Kansas City, Arizona, Houston, Seattle, Baltimore
(Thursday) NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) vs. BUFFALO
This game could go several different ways, but I think that the Jets look to pound the ball to set up the pass and the Bills will look to continue their big running game after racking up two 100-yard performances last week. Clearly Rex Ryan will be motivated against the Jets, and this game is key for both teams in the AFC East, but I like the home team here to be more balanced and to apply pressure on Tyrod Taylor. Also, do not forget that the Bills are one of the most penalized teams in the league, so I expect a disappointing penalty will call back a big play for Buffalo and take the wind out of the sails of that team. I like the Jets to get another big win before Ryan Fitzpatrick faces surgery the next day. PICK: Jets
JACKSONVILLE (+6) at BALTIMORE
This line has me confused. On paper, the Ravens should be favored by more than a touchdown, and they just had a bye week – but rest is not going to bring back Steve Smith. Joe Flacco is going to have a cast of no-names to try and lead this passing game, so look for the Jaguars to focus on stuffing the run and Justin Forsett and make the Ravens try and throw. Jacksonville has a solid passing attack and that is the big weakness for Baltimore. I see Blake Bortles having a big game and the Jaguars possibly winning this one on the road, especially if you consider that Jacksonville has to be realizing that they have a shot at the division now with Andrew Luck out 2-6 weeks. PICK: Jaguars
GREEN BAY (-11.5) vs. DETROIT
The Packers have lost two games in a row, but to Denver and Carolina, two 8-0 teams. Now they head home to face a divisional foe in the Lions who are coming off of a bye week but before that they were rolled over by Kansas City in London, England. As much as you may like Calvin Johnson, I think Green Bay blankets him and forces someone else to beat them, while Aaron Rodgers uses this game as a “get right” opportunity. The spread is big, but Green Bay’s motivation is bigger. I will give the points, reluctantly, and take Green Bay here. PICK: Packers
PHILADELPHIA (-6) vs. MIAMI
Here is another game I struggled with, but I think I figured out what Chip Kelly is going to do. I see big games for the running game of the Eagles as they will look to build on Miami’s giving up two big run performances to Buffalo last week. Look for 30+ carries by Ryan Mathews, DeMarco Murray and Darren Sproles to spearhead the Philadelphia offense. Miami may keep it close for a while, but there’s also motivation for the Eagles’ kicker to do well against his former team. I think the Dolphins put up points but the Eagles post more and win by a touchdown, 34-27. PICK: Eagles
PITTSBURGH (-4.5) vs. CLEVELAND
Landry Jones is going to have to try and keep the Steelers on the right track as the starter this week, but this pick is more against Cleveland’s offense and defense than it is for the Pittsburgh squad. Josh McCown is likely to be back here, and Pittsburgh can give up a lot of yards via the pass (see Derek Carr last week) but I do not think the Browns are talented enough to take advantage of it. Gary Barnidge should have a good game and Travis Benjamin could do well, but I like the Steelers to get a key win against a divisional rival and win by enough to cover a small spread. PICK: Steelers
ST. LOUIS (-7) vs. CHICAGO
The Bears are coming off of a close win at San Diego from Monday Night Football while the Rams suffered a road loss in overtime to Minnesota. St. Louis hosts another NFC North team here, but Chicago is about to face a much tougher defense than they saw from San Diego. I think that the Rams get after Jay Cutler and run the ball all day long with Todd Gurley, which will be more than enough to take care of Chicago. PICK: Rams
TAMPA BAY (-1) vs. DALLAS
This is another tough call. Tampa Bay lost by 14 to the Giants last week, but the game was much closer than that as the Giants scored off of a lateral on the last play of the game. Tampa did a good job on defense against the run and the pass, while Dallas just gave up 33 points to Philadelphia last Sunday night. I don’t really trust either quarterback here, but the Buccaneers look more stable than the Cowboys who look like they are getting close to completely unraveling. PICK: Buccaneers
CAROLINA (-5) at TENNESSEE
How can an 8-0 team not be getting enough respect? When they go on the road to play a sub-.500 team and are only favored by five points. Sure Marcus Mariota looked good last week, but Carolina continues to beat everyone on their schedule in all phases of the game. Carolina will shut the Tennessee ground game down and force Mariota to try and move the ball, and I see several turnovers here for the rookie. Carolina will win this game by double digits. PICK: Panthers
NEW ORLEANS (EVEN) at WASHINGTON
This could be the highest scoring game in Week 10, as both teams are not good against the pass and Drew Brees is red hot. If Kirk Cousins can keep this game close, I expect it to be a 34-31 shootout between these two clubs that are fighting to stay relevant in the standings. DeSean Jackson should be able to have his first big game of the year while Brees feels like a lock for 300 yards and two touchdowns as a minimum. Washington has a rough schedule the rest of the month, so they know that this might be their best chance to win a game before December, but that will not matter to the Saints. I am taking Brees over Cousins here as both perform well, but Brees is just better, and the Washington defense is terrible against the pass. PICK: Saints
OAKLAND (-3) vs. MINNESOTA
Derek Carr is hot and the Oakland defense is pretty good against the run, so that means Minnesota would have to pass the ball to win this game on the road. The Vikings need Teddy Bridgewater to bounce back from his concussion and step up big here, and he just might – but I like the Raiders to throw the ball more and get a home win, even if Latavius Murray cannot suit up for this one. Oakland is better than many think, and this game will go a long way to show it to the non-believers. PICK: Raiders
DENVER (-6) vs. KANSAS CITY
Kansas City just had a week off after racking up 45 points in London against the Lions. The Broncos just lost their first game at Indianapolis, and they know that they need to right their ship quickly in an AFC West contest at home. Another loss here puts them several steps back from a bye in the postseason, and they do not want to be that third seed and face an extra playoff game, even at home. I like Denver to get the win and for the defense to put the Chiefs on their heels quite often, while Peyton Manning and company exploit the weakness of Kansas City (worst against wide receivers) to rack up plenty of passing yards and points to get a double-digit win. PICK: Broncos
NEW ENGLAND (-7) at NEW YORK GIANTS
Forget that the Patriots lost one of their top running backs, as that will not matter this week. Tom Brady is going to see what Drew Brees did to the Giants two weeks ago and drop back 30+ times to produce plenty of points before LeGarrette Blount drops the hammer in the fourth quarter. Eli Manning may try and keep pace, but not for a full 60 minutes. Patriots 41, Giants 24. PICK: Patriots
SEATTLE (-3) vs. ARIZONA
This is going to be quite the battle in the NFC West as Seattle is two games behind the Cardinals, so a win here by the Seahawks will close that divisional gap quickly. That’s what I expect Seattle to do as their secondary will try and shut down the Arizona passing game and force them to run, something Seattle is also pretty good at stopping this season. This one is going to be a struggle Both teams are well rested after a bye and both teams are going to be challenged to score, so I am going to give it to the team that needs it the most and that has the slight edge on special teams. PICK: Seahawks
(Monday) CINCINNATI (-10.5) vs. HOUSTON
The Bengals had an extra few days off after winning handily last Thursday, but the Texans had a bye week, so cancel that all out. Cincinnati is very likely to force Brian Hoyer to try and win this one, and even with DeAndre Hopkins having the hot hand, I don’t think it will be enough against one of the best teams this year. Give me the much better team and do not sweat the points. PICK: Bengals
Best Bets
Once again this year I will give not only the "Best Bets" but also a rating of each one on a 1-3 "Star" scale. The more stars, the more I like that side of the game.
* ONE STAR GAMES *
- (Thursday) NEW YORK JETS (-2.5) vs. BUFFALO
- JACKSONVILLE “FOR THE WIN” (+210) at BALTIMORE
- ST. LOUIS (-7) vs. CHICAGO
- CAROLINA (-5) at TENNESSEE
- NEW ORLEANS at WASHINGTON (OVER 50)
- NEW ENGLAND (-7) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- 2-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER:
- ST. LOUIS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- CAROLINA (+1) at TENNESSEE
- 4-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (5-1 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- CAROLINA (+1) at TENNESSEE
- NEW ORLEANS at WASHINGTON (OVER 44)
- JACKSONVILLE (+12) at BALTIMORE
- 5-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (7-1 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- CAROLINA (+1) at TENNESSEE
- NEW ORLEANS at WASHINGTON (OVER 44)
- JACKSONVILLE (+12) at BALTIMORE
- ST. LOUIS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- 6-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- CAROLINA (+1) at TENNESSEE
- NEW ORLEANS at WASHINGTON (OVER 44)
- JACKSONVILLE (+12) at BALTIMORE
- ST. LOUIS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- DENVER (EVEN) vs. KANSAS CITY
- 7-TEAM, 6-POINT TEASER (11-1 ODDS):
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- CAROLINA (+1) at TENNESSEE
- EW ORLEANS at WASHINGTON (OVER 44)
- JACKSONVILLE (+12) at BALTIMORE
- ST. LOUIS (-1) vs. CHICAGO
- DENVER (EVEN) vs. KANSAS CITY
- PITTSBURGH (+1.5) vs. CLEVELAND
** TWO STAR GAMES **
- 2-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER:
- DENVER (EVEN) vs. KANSAS CITY
- CAROLINA (+1) at TENNESSEE
- 2-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER:
- NEW ORLEANS at WASHINGTON (OVER 44)
- CAROLINA (+1) at TENNESSEE
- JACKSONVILLE (+6) at BALTIMORE
- 6-POINT TEASER: JACKSONVILLE (+12) at BALTIMORE (OVER 42)
*** THREE STAR GAMES ***
- 2-TEAM, 6 POINT TEASER:
- NEW ENGLAND (-1) at NEW YORK GIANTS
- CAROLINA (+1) at TENNESSEE
PICKS OF THE WEEK: Jaguars, Steelers, Rams, Panthers, Saints, Broncos, Patriots
Results
Last Week
- OVERALL: 8-5 (61.5%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 12.75-20 (38.9%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 5-4 (55.6%)
Season
- OVERALL: 71-59-2 (54.6%)
- BEST BETS (STARS): 71.55-95-1 (43.0%)
- PICK OF WEEK: 29-31-1 (48.3%)
As always, questions, suggestions and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.