Targeting Top Offenses

Identify and target players on top offenses

This article is about a 9-minute read.

Once upon a time, David Dodds wrote a very interesting article that was called Eliminate the Suck. The prevailing concept was pretty simple – avoid players on offenses that could be considered questionable. In the original article, David eliminated the Bottom 10 offenses, kept the Top 10 offenses, and made decisions on the remaining 12 based on their fantasy playoff (Weeks 14-16) schedules. Additional criteria were used (favoring positive value against ADP, while avoiding players with age and injury issues).

While I loved the concept, I thought that it could stand some modernization – and a little less rigidity. Limiting the players to only those on the Top 10 offenses seems arbitrary, so a more quantifiable method was used to filter the list of the Top 200 players (no need for 300) to get down to the best of the best.

Taking 2019 results and sorting offenses by relevant fantasy production in the regular season, a score was given to the best NFL teams to identify a few categories of offenses from last season. Ranking all 32 teams according to yards per game, total points, passing yards, and total yards sounded like a reasonable start. You may notice that rushing touchdowns and yardage were not emphasized and for good reason. The NFL emphasizes the passing game, as 18 teams had over 3.700 yards passing for the season while only nine teams had over 2,000 yards rushing. Further, only 14 teams had 16 or more rushing touchdowns (the 49ers with 23, the Titans with 21, and the Bills with 21 scores representing the only teams over the 20 mark) – yet 16 teams had 25 or more passing scores, with the Top 7 throwing for at least 30. Passing is king in the NFL.

Three clear team groupings emerged from the four criteria:

Group 1 – Elite Offenses [4]

Team
Yards/Game
Total Points
Passing TDs
Passing Yards
Tampa Bay
3rd
3rd-tie
3rd
1st
Dallas
1st
6th
5th-tie
3rd
Kansas City
6th
5th
5th-tie
4th
New Orleans
9th
3rd-tie
2nd
7th

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