This series distills NFL charts into easily digestible fantasy football information for opportunity and upside. In this installment, the running backs are the featured position.
Links to entire series:
The Good
This is a golden age for high-pedigree running backs with strong profiles and many of them already have clear NFL depth chart lead roles and/or a production track record. The sneaky high-upside subset plays in 2020 include relatively new or more ambiguous profiles like Kenyan Drake and Derrius Guice. Drake is on the back-half of a running back's historical prime production window age-wise, yet has never been a higher volume starter for a team for an entire season, even dating back through college. Guice flashed for a handful of games in 2019 after a season-and-a-half were eliminated by injury in the NFL.
David Johnson is a high variance option with the best case being a return to early-Arizona form as a dominant two-way producer and engine of an offense, one in Houston which has an annual elite upside with Deshaun Watson at the helm. Will Johnson have his movement back to his game? The downside is a shaky starter, committee, or even Houston looking for other options like Arizona did last season. Melvin Gordon and LeVeon Bell (and to a lesser degree Todd Gurley) are older veterans who are being overlooked in their fantasy market cost for 2020. All three have strong production track records in the NFL plus overt opportunity this season. Each has their profile question marks to provide such upside potential, but their track record is not a question in the macro view.
A final backfield worth including due to the affordable cost of the incumbent is Ronald Jones II with Tampa Bay. While assumed to have already lost the starting job by some in the fantasy community, the 23-year-old is entering the typical age curve zone to post a career year. Ke'Shawn Vaughn is the biggest projected challenger, but as a lower-pedigreed rookie, the odds of an early-season raid of Jones' starting job would be the result of a deluge of missteps by Jones more than Vaughn outright taking the job. Jones is on the under-the-radar breakout list for 2020.
Even with the prospect of a Dalvin Cook holdout, Alexander Mattison showed his mettle as a quality starting replacement if needed for Vikings if things are pessimistic between Cook and Minnesota as the season approaches. The pairing insulates the Vikings run game if Cook does end up missing games via holdout or injury. The same storyline can be said in New Orleans regarding Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray.
The Bad
Mark Ingram and Devin Singletary are two names with High Upside potential in their best case 2020 vision, but both teams drafted a back on Day 2 with Ingram seeing the stiffest talent competition for touches with J.K. Dobbins, a blue-chip prospect, added to the depth chart. Ingram was already a high-variance weekly play last year, needing touchdowns for impact games, and Dobbins is poised to force his way into touches by midseason at the latest with the worst case being a full-blown committee for much of the season if Ingram holds a starter moniker. Singletary has less talent pressure from Zack Moss in Buffalo, but the likely potential to lose touchdown upside at a minimum as a sub-sized back is a real possibility and Moss taking on a Frank Gore-type standing on the depth chart.
The Dolphins are up and coming as a franchise as the moniker goes for a team with a host of young players and picks to boost a recent non-contender. Jordan Howard has morphed from NFL starter in his early career to now a more likely committee option with moments of starter usage if needed. The big picture Dolphins starter in 2021+ is likely not on the Miami roster, but Howard is a sturdy usage floor back with Matt Breida added to the depth chart as well. Projecting the better fantasy option, if either is even on the top-20(ish) spectrum, will be difficult unless one is out of the lineup to fuel the other.
The (Potentially) Ugly
The 49ers have a dominant run game but their running back depth chart is arguably the most convoluted in the entire NFL. Raheem Mostert is the best option by how the 2019 season finished, plus Matt Breida is gone, but Tevin Coleman was the starter on paper and in spirit to begin games last season. Jerick McKinnon was a priority signing for the team multiple offseasons ago for a string of injuries hit and are optimistically projected behind McKinnon. Jeff Wilson is yet another functional back in the mix, who flashed with opportunities and shows how user-friendly the Kyle Shanahan system projects for many backs. The aggregation of production has immense upside but the week to week lack of predictability poses a serious threat to having the right answer for fantasy lineups.
The Chiefs have late-career-blooming Damien Williams as a do-it-all option and splashed the NFL Draft with Clyde Edwards-Helaire to close Round 1 back in April as the RB1 off the board. A hearty split would spell frustration for strong RB1 fantasy-seekers without an injury to one of them or a slow start by Edwards-Helaire, which is certainly possible with an abbreviated at best offseason.
The Patriots have a Round 1 and Round 3 running back populating the depth chart (Sony Michel, Damien Harris) plus James White to collect optimized receiving work. Add Rex Burkhead as an underrated jack-of-all-trades option plus the potential for an offensive downturn in the post-Tom Brady era of 2020 and the Patriots have the signs of an upside-sapping backfield.
The Colts are a strong rushing offense considering their offensive line play plus the infusion of Philip Rivers at quarterback. This could easily be in 'The Good' category if one running back separates from the pack for a stretch of the season. Prognosticating the most likely arc of the 2020 season is Marlon Mack begins as the clear starter with Jonathan Taylor's overt talent forcing a committee a few weeks into the season and eventually becoming the clear starter with some similarities to the Nick Chubb takeover of the Browns backfield in the midseason of 2018.
Kerryon Johnson and D'Andre Swift are both Round 2 selections in recent years. Johnson has missed a chunk of each of his two seasons, and Swift offers a more dynamic two-way ability than Johnson. A Johnson injury paves the way to elite upside for Swift as a rookie but, otherwise, a messy-ish committee is the most likely outcome.
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