Fantasy writers spend a ton of time writing about draft plans. The best draft plans account as much as possible for the fluid nature of 8-16 people making decisions that you cannot take 100 percent into account—or even 60 percent into account.
A worthwhile draft plan is essentially a bunch of if/then conditions in the same way that quarterbacks read a defense. As with quarterbacks, where fantasy players get it wrong is when they don't recognize the coverage and the key leverage points to exploit before the snap, immediately after, and how to manipulate the defense while executing the solution to the problems presented.
If our fantasy drafts are the football field then our league size, scoring rules, our team's draft position, and the average draft position (ADP) of the player pool is the pre-snap coverage. It stands to reason with this analogy that when key players from the draft pool fall a certain number of spots below their ADP, it's time to react in the same way Patrick Mahomes II reads the post-snap position of the safety and throws open Travis Kelce for a massive gain.
The 25 players below have greater volatility built into their ADPs than players in similar spots. The ADPs used in this article come from Footballguys' ADP tracking of four PPR ADP sources and to provide an example of volatility, take 49ers running back Raheem Mostert.
Mostert has an average ADP of 51. His ADP range is 42-65. In contrast, Zach Ertz's ADP average is 48 and his ADP range is a much smaller 49-54.
The range of ADP is often an indication of the fantasy industry's confidence in a player. The greater the heights above and the depths below the average, the weaker the confidence.
These are the players you want to have a firm view of and if that view is positive, you want to know when in the draft you should act to get that player at a value. The 25 players below are options that have enough ADP volatility and/or value relative to their peers that you should act if they fall to specific spots during your drafts.
This article will share those points and share why these players carry additional weighted value relative to their peers in the same ADP range. ADP volatility is one of several factors considered for the players listed below, including individual talent, surrounding talent, and scheme fit.
Last note: ADPs are for PPR formats.
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