Player value in dynasty football reminds me of watching ocean waves. They ebb and flow, always in a state of flux. Competitive dynasty players anticipate these movements before they happen and act by picking up, buying, or selling players as the situation demands. Dynasty general managers have previously been at the mercy of regular waiver segments to assist in dynasty pickups, but these fail to account for the long-term view necessary to dynasty success. This weekly column will focus on identifying assets that will help dynasty teams build for the future, as well as players that may plug a hole at a position of need on an otherwise strong squad.
Welcome to week two of Waivers of the Future! Whether you are a contender or rebuilder, this article will seek to help you put yourself in the best position to have success in your dynasty league by helping you to make preemptive pickups.
This is the week when overreaction or underreaction to what has happened in week one’s slate of games will become a temptation for owners. There are three things that will help general managers as they approach waivers this week:
1. Take time to process what happened. Ignore the box scores and highlight plays. If you have time, go back and watch the games. If you don’t have time, make sure you are listening to voices that are taking the time to do detailed, film-based analysis. Footballguys’ Matt Waldman is one of the very best at this particular aspect of review.
2. Consider the contextual information. This also will take some digging. Looking at snap counts to determine a players’ usage, reading post-game press conferences for player and coaching staff insights, and considering other performance-related data that may be available can be helpful. If you do not have time to do this, I suggest following someone like Footballguy Dwain McFarland, who responsibly looks at trends and presents them with the necessary context.
3. Act accordingly. Both paralysis or cutting players who did not perform to expectations will put a general manager in a bind. This column and many others on Footballguys this week will strive to give you actionable advice on what to do one way or the other.
Budget percentages are to give the reader guidance regarding how the writer would prioritize these players. However, you know your league best. If you think you can get away with bidding less than recommended or nothing at all, go for it!
IN THE SKY
Players on this list have previously appeared in this article as pickups, but have had value spikes at points in the season that make them unlikely to be out there in your league. If they are still available and you need help contending, consider spending 30-50%+ of your budget on them.
IN THE CLOUDS
Players on this list are probably also rostered but are worth less than 30% of your budget.
RIDE THE WAVE
(These are plug-and-play options who might patch a hole on your team in the short-term.)
QUARTERBACK
5-10%| Joe Flacco, DEN- With Lamar Jackson clearly the future in Baltimore, Flacco went to a team that needed a bridge option until Drew Lock is ready to go. Flacco won’t put up gaudy stats, but on a team with decent offensive weapons and an above-average defense, a season of 20-25 touchdowns and 3,500 passing yards is within reach. As a bye week or injury fill-in, that may be enough to keep a contending team afloat in the short-term. Fantasy general managers should sit Flacco against the vaunted Bears’ defense this week.
1-5%| Eli Manning, NYG- You’ll probably be making the patented Manningface if you have to roster him, but he’s available on many dynasty waiver wires. At least he’ll have some quality surrounding talent in Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley. The Bills do not present the toughest matchup in the world, but neither is it a favorable one for Manning and company.
1-5%| Case Keenum, WAS- Keenum was surprisingly effective against Philadelphia, but don’t expect that to continue, especially against better secondaries. Versus the Cowboys this week, we should not count on Keenum to be productive.
1-5%| Gardner Minshew, JAX- He replaced Nick Foles and performed better than expected, even if it was in garbage time. The Texans’ secondary is one of the worst things about their team, so Minshew could have some success in his contest if the offensive line can keep the pass rush stymied.
RUNNING BACK
(This position is razor thin on the waiver wires the writer has looked over…)
30-50+%| Adrian Peterson, WAS- Peterson was a week one inactive, which may have caused folks to send him packing to the waiver wire. However, Derrius Guice appears to have sustained a significant knee injury to the opposite knee of the one he hurt a year ago. Peterson has shown he still has something left in the tank and while the offense isn't amazing, having a lion's share of the carries means he will be of value.
30-50%| Giovani Bernard, CIN- As of this writing, it is unclear whether Joe Mixon will miss time after sustaining an ankle sprain in the loss to San Francisco last week. Also, Bernard probably isn’t out there in all but the most shallow of dynasty formats. Nevertheless, if he is available, he’s one of the more talented running backs you’ll encounter on waivers this year, thus the high priority on snagging him. The 49ers showed against a weak Buccaneers rushing attack that they are susceptible to the run. If Bernard gets the start, he’s in line for a good day. If not, he’s still a priority add because of his ability and because he is a good fit in the Bengals’ system.
20-40%| Matt Breida, SF- Breida is another running back that is likely to be rostered. However, in the interest of being thorough, he will get a mention. Tevin Coleman is slated to miss time after an undisclosed injury suffered against Tampa Bay. Breida becomes the primary runner in an offense that makes its runners very valuable. The Bengals were stingy on the ground in terms of yardage but did give up two rushing touchdowns to Seattle. Breida has a decent shot at a good fantasy day against Cincinnati.
WIDE RECEIVER
1-5% Dontrell Inman, LAC- Mike Williams suffered a knee injury against the Colts and his current status is unknown. If he misses significant time, Inman will become more involved in the offense and has proven before that he can handle catching 3-5 balls a game. The Chargers draw a juicy secondary matchup in the Lions this upcoming week.
1-5% Ted Ginn Jr Jr., NO- The wire for receivers is thin, but Ginn is out there in many leagues. When he can stay healthy, he has a defined role in one of the better offenses in football and is good for a few catches a week. The Rams secondary is nowhere near as good as its defensive front, so Ginn could have a nice week.
TIGHT END
10-20%| Jason Witten, DAL- Witten is probably unavailable in most leagues since unretiring, but there’s a possibility he’s still floating around in your player pool. As we saw against the Giants, Witten will not have the same involvement level as in previous years, but he can make a few catches a week and possibly even find the end zone every once in a while. Dallas faces Washington in week two, so finding the end zone is more likely than not for Witten.
5-10%| Vernon Davis, WAS- As Jordan Reed continues to be held out with concussion symptoms, Davis has proven to be a viable stand-in for an offense that uses its tight end position often. However, against the Cowboys this week, one should not place as much faith in Davis.
5-10%| Jordan Akins, HOU- Over the summer Jordan Thomas quietly won the starting job in Houston. However, both he and Kahale Warring were recently put on injured reserve. Jordan Akins becomes the last man standing. Houston’s lacking tight end usage is concerning. However, in an offense that will be potent as long as Deshaun Watson stays upright, Akins might be able to serve as a bandaid for teams that need help at the position. The Texans draw the Jags this weekend in what promises to be a low-scoring affair.
THE SPLASH
(Might be available in 30 or fewer roster spot leagues.)
QUARTERBACK
30-45%| Jacoby Brissett, IND- Brissett was a recommended stash last year and that may pay off big for fantasy general managers who acted upon that advice. Andrew Luck unexpectedly announced retirement two weeks before the season, vaulting Brissett into the starting job. It now makes perfect sense why the Colts refused to consider trading Brissett. While they certainly took a downgrade from Luck, it is doubtful that the offense or defense will be as poor as it was in 2017. Because of the overall quality of the team and coaching staff, Brissett is still worth going after with a sizeable portion of your budget if you missed the opportunity to grab him on the cheap. If he wasn’t picked up last week, this is probably your last chance to land him, albeit at an elevated price point.
5-10%| Teddy Bridgewater, NO- Bridgewater could very well be the future starter for the Saints or another team in the future. The Saints signed him to another one-year deal in the offseason, showing that both team and player are content with maintaining the status quo. We probably have not seen the best of Bridgewater yet and should be excited about it if we can land him on our dynasty teams.
RUNNING BACK
15-20%| Malcolm Brown, LAR- Brown’s price just went up after his week one performance and splitting the load with Todd Gurley. While it’s unlikely to continue, this showed us how valuable Brown could be if Gurley were to go down. He has looked great in limited opportunities behind Todd Gurley and has the skill set to carry the load if Los Angeles has to trust him to be their lead guy.
1%| Ameer Abdullah, MIN- Though many of us love Alexander Mattison’s long-term potential, it is not certain that Mattison would get the first crack at starting if Cook were to get banged up. Abdullah still has the traits of a good NFL running back, and in this offense, he could surprise if given a shot at being the featured runner.
1%| Rod Smith, NYG- Smith landed behind Saquon Barkley and though he is not a special athlete, he is a runner who would be competent on his touches in the way that he was when Zeke was suspended in 2017. He would probably be functional as a potential flex play if Barkley were to go down, albeit in a poor offense.
WIDE RECEIVER
20-40%| Terry McLaurin, Was- McLaurin is rostered across most dynasty leagues, but just in case he’s still out there in yours, his week one performance was a reminder that he should be a part of your reserve group. McLaurin’s deep speed is impressive and even if this regime is on its way out, McLaurin’s skills will likely endear him to the next coaching staff.
1-5%| Justin Watson, TB- Recall that Watson made the initial 53-man roster last year, despite how crowded Tampa Bay’s wide receiver corps already was at that time. Watson took over the slot role with the departures of DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries. Jameis Winston prefers short-to-intermediate throws, meaning Watson could get more work than we anticipate this season.
TIGHT END
10-20% Adam Shaheen, CHI- Trey Burton continuing to struggle with health issues may open the door for Shaheen. He has had his own troubles staying healthy but has flashed when he has been on the field, especially in red-zone work. He’s been kicked to the curb in many dynasty leagues. However, now that Shaheen is entering his third year, this could be the time we see him come into his own.
10-15%| Ian Thomas, CAR- Thomas has been tossed back out on some waiver wires. However, when the box score is examined it is clear that he actually acquitted himself well when Greg Olsen was out last year. Thomas will need seasoning, but with Greg Olsen near the end of his career, Thomas is worth holding.
THE DEEP
QUARTERBACK
Watch List| Jared Stidham, NE- It is notable that New England cut backup Brian Hoyer and will roll with the rookie. Stidham performed well in preseason and shows promise to be the next in a long line of developmental quarterbacks for the Patriots. He is worth rostering in deep leagues because his perceived value will only grow with time.
Watch List| Chad Kelly, IND- It is a long shot, but if Brissett drops the ball, a talented Kelly waits in the wings. The only downside is that Kelly has had a variety of character issues both in college and the NFL that suggest he might not be mature enough to handle the opportunity, which is why he is not higher on the list.
RUNNING BACK
Watch List| Jordan Wilkins, IND- Wilkins has the misfortune of being behind Marlon Mack and Nyheim Hines in the pecking order. However, Wilkins, when developed, should be a more promising do-it-all back than Marlon Mack or Nyheim Hines. Keep an eye on this young man, especially if injuries occur ahead of him on the depth chart.
Watch List| C.J. Procise, SEA- Injuries and a crowded depth chart have pushed Procise out of favor with this regime, but it looks like he has shown enough to hang on the roster yet again. The skill is there, but at this point, it will take some injuries to Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny to get Procise a chance. On a run-heavy offensive team, that could pay off for fantasy general managers willing to add him should one or both get hurt.
WIDE RECEIVER
Watch List| Richie James, SF- James is buried on the depth chart but remains one of the author’s favorite deep stashes. He has the skills to eventually play from any receiver position in this offense. His trademark skills are being very shifty and great on contested catches, despite his smaller size.
Watch List| Deon Cain, IND- It is a shame that Cain tore his ACL in year one because he is a technician and has the potential to become what Roddy White was in his prime. The loss of Luck hurts, but Cain is more of a long-term stash anyway. This team could look very different at quarterback when Cain gets his shot.
Watch List| Juwann Winfree, DEN- Winfree was a camp standout this year, catching everything that came his way. With DeSean Hamilton disappointing and also being nowhere near the athlete that Winfree is, we could see Winfree inherit that role in the future.
Watch List| Emmanuel Butler, NO- Like Winfree, Butler made a name for himself in camp practices and has a disappointing role player in Tre’Quan Smith ahead of him on the depth chart. Butler currently resides on the practice squad. If Butler can stick with this team for another year or two, he has a great chance to step into that role.
Watch List| Auden Tate, CIN- Tate has not been able to make his mark yet. However, heading into his second season and with an often banged-up A.J. Green ahead of him, Tate is likely to get to show off his prowess as a big-bodied red-zone threat.
Watch List| Robert Foster, BUF- He is currently in a reserve role, but the writer trusts that the team will see that Foster is a better fit for the offense than the unreliable Zay Jones.
Watch List| Javon Wims, CHI- Wims was constantly making plays throughout the preseason last year, so much so that the Bears dared not put him on the practice squad. He was doing the same in camp again this year and there may be more opportunity for him with Kevin White gone or if injuries should strike.
Watch List| Byron Pringle, KC- With Tyreek Hill sidelined for weeks with a collarbone injury, Pringle could get an increased opportunity. He’s a very good route runner and the coaching staff was complimentary of his improvement and professionalism towards improving his game this offseason.
TIGHT END
Watch List| Demetrius Harris, CLE- Harris was stuck behind Travis Kelce but landed behind David Njoku in free agency. We have heard reports that Njoku is not growing the way we had hoped and with him headed into his third year, that is concerning. Harris is an underrated talent, one that has traits similar to Kelce. If Njoku were to get hurt or was not able to complete his assignments, Harris is a name we want to keep on waiver wire speed dial.
Watch List| Jeremy Sprinkle, WAS- Jordan Reed cannot stay healthy, Vernon Davis is aging, and Sprinkle is an able blocker and receiver. He is someone we want to monitor for now and pick up if we see him start to get more opportunities.
Watch List| Anthony Firkser, TEN- Could the Titans have made a significant discovery last year with the undrafted Firkser? It’s a possibility. He has size, reliable hands, and the ability to box out defenders in the middle of the field. Jonnu Smith and Firkser could become quite the duo when Delanie Walker moves on in a few years or if Walker once again fails to complete the year due to injury.
Watch List| Foster Moreau, OAK- Moreau is going undrafted in many dynasty rookie drafts, but he should at least be on our radar. He is a good pass catcher and a great blocker. Jon Gruden has shown the propensity to target his tight end heavily and there is no one on the roster that is a long-term lock to hold the job.
Watch List| Alizé Mack, NO- Mack is now on the practice squad. Mack impressed as a receiving tight end. With Jared Cook in the later stages of his career, things could time out right for Mack to take his place when Mack is more developed.
LOST AT SEA
(Players who recently appeared in this column, but have had their value decrease to the point they hold no value in all but the very deepest of dynasty leagues.)
Nick Foles, JAX- Foles suffered a clavicle injury in week one that will hold him out 6-8 weeks from that point. At this point, it’s safe to toss him back to the waiver wire.
Willie Snead, BAL- Though Sneed earned targets and even caught a touchdown in the blowout win against Miami, it looks as if Baltimore’s passing attack will run primarily through Mark Andrews and rookie Marquise Brown. As he won’t be as involved as we previously thought, It’s safe to let go of him.
