#Trendspotting: Week 2

Examining player and team trends to identify valuable DFS options and start/sits in season-long leagues

Last week, we listed numerous sections that will be featured throughout the season. Despite that exhaustive list, we still have a new one! And since we're short on season-long data and need time to explain this new concept, much of the column this week will be devoted to this section.

This week, we'll discuss the following topics:

Running Back Buy Lows

This section will identify the running backs with the most opportunity-driven fantasy potential. And we'll compare that potential with actual fantasy points scored so far. The intent is to identify buy-low candidates for season-long leagues and positive touchdown regression candidates for DFS purposes.

The Methodology

This section will focus on Expected Fantasy Points per Game. The idea is to separate high-value opportunities from ordinary "between-the-20s" carries. Carries near the goal line matter more than those from midfield. Since we're assuming PPR leagues, targets matter much more than carries. Here is the breakdown of the calculation:

  • 1.59 fantasy points per target
  • 0.58 fantasy points per carry outside the 5 yard-line
  • 2.37 fantasy points per carry inside the 5 yard-line

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