#Trendspotting: Week 1

Examining player and team trends to identify valuable DFS options and start/sits in season-long leagues

by Ryan Hester, September 5
Photo: Joe Nicholson, US Presswire

Reader's Guide

As you read, you may run into some colors in the text. Blue text is a good matchup for that team's offensive players. Red text is a bad matchup. Some other key items are below:

All red/blue highlighting in tables is relative to the entire NFL, even when showing a limited number of teams.
All reference to fantasy points assumes DraftKings scoring rules unless otherwise specified.
All stats reference the full 2019 season unless otherwise specified.
All fantasy points rankings in the matchup graphics are on a per-game basis to account for bye weeks.

Week 1 Introduction

In typical weeks, we'll jump straight into the column. But with this being Week 1, we have no 2019 data to use to form trends and make recommendations. Since this week's column will be a little light on the actual #Trendspotting, we'll use this section to introduce some of the topics that will appear in the column throughout the season.

Section Name	Description
Follow the Targets	Examining how defenses allow targets, yards, and touchdowns to the RB, WR, and TE positions.
Strengths and Weaknesses	Dissecting how offenses gain yards (% via pass and % via rush) and how defenses allow them.
How Will They Score?	Using Vegas lines combined with how teams score and allow points to determine how they'll score.
The Weakest Links	Highlighting matchups to be exploited.
Tweets of the Week	Interesting, noteworthy, and informative tweets to help identify fantasy recommendations.
Looks Can Be Deceiving	Comparing raw "Defense vs. Position" stats vs. Footballguys Normalized Strength of Schedule.
Now #Trending	Using recent DvP stats vs. the prior portion of the season to identify teams improving or declining.
Playcalling Preferences	Identifying the most pass-heavy and run-heavy teams and comparing them to opponents.
Going Deep	Identifying offenses that throw the most and defenses that face the most deep attempts.
Tempo, Tempo, Tempo	Using situation-neutral tempo to identify fast-paced matchups for the week.
Game of the Week	Taking a deep dive into the best plays in the week's most popular game.

Some of these features can debut as early as next week, but some (like our Normalized Strength of Schedule) require at least four weeks of data to be useful.