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Once upon a time, David Dodds wrote a very interesting article that was called “Eliminate the Suck”. The prevailing concept was pretty simple – avoid players on offenses that could be considered questionable. In the original article, David eliminated the Bottom 10 offenses, kept the Top 10 offenses, and made decisions on the remaining 12 based on their fantasy playoff (Weeks 14-16) schedules. Additional criteria were used (favoring positive value against ADP, while avoiding players with age and injury issues).
While I loved the concept, I thought that it could stand some modernization – and a little less rigidity. Limiting the players to only those on the Top 10 offenses seems arbitrary, so a more quantifiable method was used to filter the list of the Top 200 players (no need for 300) to get down to the best of the best.
Taking 2018 results and sorting offenses by relevant fantasy production in the regular season, a score was given to the best NFL teams to identify a few categories of offenses from last season. Ranking all 32 teams according to yards per game, total points, passing yards, and total yards sounded like a reasonable start. You may notice that rushing touchdowns and yardage were not emphasized and for good reason. The NFL emphasizes the passing game, as 14 teams had over 4,000 yards passing for the season while only eight teams had over 2,000 yards rushing. Further, only 10 teams had 16 or more rushing touchdowns (with the Saints’ 26 and Rams’ 23 the only teams over the 20 mark) – yet 20 teams had 25 or more passing scores, with the Top 10 throwing for at least 30. Passing is king in the NFL.
Three clear team groupings emerged from the four criteria:
Group 1 – Elite Offenses [Five teams]
- Kansas City (Yards Per Game 1st, Total Points 1st, Passing Touchdowns 1st, Passing Yards 3rd)
- Los Angeles Rams (2nd, 2nd, 8th-tie, 5th)
- Pittsburgh (4th, 6th-tie, 5th-tie, 2nd)
- Indianapolis (7th, 5th, 2nd, 6th)
- Atlanta (6th, 10th, 3rd-tie, 4th)
These five teams should not surprise many, as the Chiefs and Rams lit up the scoreboard last season, while the Colts behind Andrew Luck had a fantastic season and also made the playoffs. The Steelers and Falcons had plenty of production on offense but were let down by their defenses (and for Pittsburgh, inner strife) that kept them from the postseason. All in all, these five teams should be expected to be among the top offenses yet again in 2018 – although Pittsburgh could have issues without Antonio Brown. Even a step back (or two) in the passing game would still keep the Steelers among the best on offense again this year, even if they are 1-2 rungs below the Chiefs, Rams, and Colts on offense.
Tier 2 – The “Near Elite” [Three teams]
- New England – (5th, 4th, 11th-tie, 8th)
- New Orleans – (8th, 3rd, 7th, 12th)
- Los Angeles Chargers – (11th, 6th-tie, 8th-tie, 10th)
Personnel changes can really impact these teams, as both the Patriots (Rob Gronkowski) and Saints (Mark Ingram) have lost a key part of the offense, while both teams see their starting quarterbacks aging quickly. The Chargers also lost a few parts of their 2018 offense (Tyrell Williams, Antonio Gates) but Hunter Henry is ready for a full campaign. All three have the parts in place for a repeat visit to the playoffs yet again this season.
Tier 3 – Strong Offenses [Six Teams]
- Philadelphia – (14th, 18th, 11th-tie, 7th)
- Carolina – (10th, 14th-tie, 14th-tie, 16th)
- Green Bay – (12th, 14th-tie, 20th, 19th)
- Cleveland – (13th, 20th, 11th-tie, 14th)
- Minnesota – (20th, 19th, 10th, 13th)
- Chicago – (21st, 9th, 14th-tie, 21st)
This group of six teams was much trickier, but none of them is a surprise to see on the list. All six of these teams have plenty of players in the Top 100 of the ADP for 2019, as much is expected from all of these teams. The Eagles get Carson Wentz back for the start of this season, which should help boost the offense. Carolina will need a healthy Cam Newton (and Greg Olsen), but they are also positioned for a strong offensive season. Green Bay, Minnesota and the Bears should all compete for not only the NFC North title but also a Wild Card spot this year. The Vikings need to improve their ground game, Chicago will have to adjust to their new group of running backs while Green Bay – ironically – must improve their passing touchdowns. Last but not least, much is expected of the revamped Cleveland Browns, with Baker Mayfield under center from the start of his second season and Odell Beckham Jr his new top target.
Two teams were scratched off this list despite 2018 numbers, led by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa Bay had strong stat lines from last season (3rd, 12th, 3rd-tie, 1st), but with Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries all gone to other franchises, it was not hard to justify looking past the Buccaneers. The tougher call was actually the New York Giants (17th, 16th, 21st-tie, 11th) that were close to average and above average, but without Odell Beckham Jr for 2019 and Eli Manning’s future also unclear, taking the Giants off of the list also made good sense. The only other team that was close in total rankings was Seattle (18th, 6th-tie, 5th-tie, 27th), but their limited yardage and passing yardage really made it difficult to include any Seahawks. That said, Seattle running backs Chris Carson and Rashaad Penny were still considered and not eliminated outright, as the run game for the Seahawks is definitely the way to get a piece of the Seattle offense if the value presented itself during a draft.
Putting it all together, these three groups result in 14 offenses to target. Slimming down the Top 200 players (and scratching off kickers and defenses) leaves 95 players to select from in a typical fantasy draft.
Theoretically, this sounds great – but how does it play out in real life?
Look no further than an expert draft that I just completed, called The Instagram Expert League that was conducted on MyFantasyLeague.com. I was able to secure many of the key players and pieces of these offenses that were on my target list. To be quite honest, I had not planned this course of action until after Round 1 – and I was not sure how the draft would play out so early in the year. The only picks I might have reconsidered were actually the first pick (JuJu Smith-Schuster) as I thought quite a bit about taking either Michael Thomas or DaVante Adams. My affinity towards other Saints that would be there later at values such as Drew Brees and Latavius Murray and questions about how Green Bay’s passing game would do this season led me towards JuJu, but in hindsight, either Adams or Thomas would have been better for this team.
Overall (and after Round 2) I decided to adopt this general strategy of the “Best Pieces” and honed it down accordingly. Several value players were highlighted (most of the value running backs that landed on this team), while other offenses were targeted only for elements of their passing attack. Teams with many receivers often led to the short list of quarterbacks to consider, while some teams with question marks at running back led to taking any form of receiver available.
Here is a full breakdown of a roster that is nearly 100% comprised of players on these 14 franchises.
Team List
- QB – Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff
- RB – Tarik Cohen, Marlon Mack, Latavius Murray, Ito Smith, Carlos Hyde, Mike Davis
- WR – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Alshon Jeffery, Golden Tate, James Washington, Devin Funchess, Mohamed Sanu,
- TE – Travis Kelce, Jack Doyle
- PK – Giorgio Tavecchio [ATL]
- TD – New England
Analysis
Quarterbacks – Deshaun Watson, Jared Goff
Watson was too good of a value, and his rushing skills should help bolster the apparent weakness at running back for this team. Jared Goff represents the best way to capture a piece of the Rams, especially with questions regarding Todd Gurley’s health. Other players that were strongly considered were Matt Ryan and Philip Rivers (for similar reasons to Goff) but bye weeks and other teams’ choices led to these two players, which should be an elite pair.
Running Backs – Tarik Cohen, Marlon Mack, Latavius Murray, Ito Smith, Carlos Hyde, Mike Davis
This is the clear weak spot of this team, but every running back on the squad has a defined role on a top-14 offense except for Hyde. Cohen will be the PPR monster again for the Bears, in play in all game scripts for Chicago. Mack is the key to the Indianapolis ground game, and Andrew Luck is not running as much as he used to (12 rushing scores in his first three seasons, but only five in the past four seasons). Murray was brought in to replace the departed Mark Ingram, and Murray is an accomplished goal line back that struggled last year in Minnesota. Ito Smith is a cheap backup for Devanta Freeman. When Atlanta had both Freeman and Tevin Coleman, both backs shared the workload and were productive. Smith should produce solid RB3-flex numbers in a Coleman-like role, and if Freeman gets hurt (yet again), Smith offers a ton of upside. Carlos Hyde represents a cheap piece of the formidable Kansas City offense, and he could be a steal. Mike Davis was a cheap way to secure most of the Chicago running back pool and a great handcuff to Cohen.
Wide Receivers – JuJu Smith-Schuster, Alshon Jeffery, Golden Tate, James Washington, Devin Funchess, Mohamed Sanu
As mentioned earlier, this team is probably better on paper with Adams or Thomas over Smith-Schuster, but none of them are bad choices. Pittsburgh led all franchises in pass attempts last year (nearly 900), and it was not even close to second place (over 50 more attempts than Indianapolis). That led to taking James Washington, and thoughts were given to taking Donte Moncrief to secure the WR2 spot for the Steelers. Alshon Jeffery is a solid target for Carson Wentz in Philadelphia, especially in the red zone. Devin Funchess offers a good piece of that Colts offense, while Sanu is underrated and undervalued once again this year. Atlanta targeted their WR3 the third-most of any NFL team last year (over 15% of their targets), and Sanu occasionally adds value as the gimmick quarterback.
The only player not on a top-14 offense is Golden Tate (Giants). He was a solid value pick as New York should be throwing plenty for four quarters as the Giants should be trailing more often than not this season.
Tight Ends – Travis Kelce, Jack Doyle
Travis Kelce is the clear top tight end this year, especially if Tyreek Hill misses significant time. Jack Doyle is a strong TE2 given Andrew Luck’s love of tight ends, and his production when healthy for a full season.
Kicker/Defense – Giorgio Tavecchio, New England
Targeting any kicker in the top-14 offenses listed above sounds like a great idea, but focusing on these teams and eliminating possible weather-related issues on the schedule led to a strong dome-based option. New England has arguably the easiest team defense schedule over the first nine weeks of the season.
Summary
While it is true that no team is ever perfect – especially this early in the year – overall the team drafted based on this strategy looks reasonable and sound. Bye weeks are going to be a question mark, especially if a few members of the roster are from the same team, but given the depth of the roster at each position then it should be very manageable. With players from 14 teams, bye weeks are highly likely to be spread out, and that is the case here with only three weeks having three teams sharing a bye week across these 14 franchises. That is a manageable number, and one that good depth can easily overcome. Further, if some of the players are starters and the others are bench options, the bye weeks are much less of a factor. As long as your quarterback (and, most likely tight end) do not share bye weeks, there should not be an issue. Lastly, our own Doug Drinen did a study many years ago that having teammates on your squad is not a problem, and may actually boost the stability of your team’s productivity.
When it comes to fantasy production, it only makes sense to target the teams most likely to produce for the coming season. While the new up and coming offenses may be attractive to dabble in, every fantasy team owner has experienced that dread where one (or more) of your players are in a blowout and their production is minimal at best in the fourth quarter. This is especially true of running backs, so be very wary. Just in recent memory, that epic Rams-Chiefs 54-51 clash in 2018 had everyone wishing that they had a piece of that game, and hopefully more than one. Targeting higher octane offenses just feels right.
So what do you think of this approach? Contact me below and let me know your thoughts on this strategy.
Best of luck this season!
Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com.