Eliminator Pool: Week 7

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

NFL Week 6 was off to a roaring start as four staffers (including myself) locked in a win on Thursday with the Patriots' domination of the Giants, and then the early window on Sunday was strong for seven more picks, including six selections of the Ravens (vs. Cincinnati) and the Saints (at Chicago). It appeared that the staff might be in for their first perfect week of the year, but then the late games happened. The loss at home by the Rams to the 49ers cost Jason Wood his perfect season as he fell to 5-1, while the Cowboys' surprising loss to the Jets in New Jersey gave Will Grant his third loss this season. Trouble continued on Sunday Night Football with the Steelers upending the Chargers, rounding out the losses for the staff with two more for both Clayton Gray and Aaron Rudnicki. Devin Knotts and Andrew Garda escaped Monday Night Football with as close of a win as you can get for the Packers over the Lions. The four losses for the staff moved the groups' loss total to 19 (with 83 wins). There are now just four members of the staff group that are a perfect 6-0 so far: Justin Howe, Dave Larkin, Jeff Haseley, and Sean Settle, but there remains a ton of weeks to navigate. Nearly half of the staff (8 of 17) enters Week 7 with one loss, and five more have two or three. It only gets tricker as the weather starts to turn colder, so as the staff chases more wins and the elusive perfect week, let's see how the Week 7 picks look.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

Week 7 looks pretty straightforward - take Buffalo or San Francisco. The Bills are big favorites (-17) at home against Miami, and Buffalo is coming off of their bye week. Most everyone is on the Bills, while a few of the staff are going contrarian by taking the 49ers at Washington. San Francisco is looking like a Super Bowl contender with their dominant wins of late over Cleveland and the Rams, so taking the 49ers on the road for an early kickoff is not as dangerous as it seems. Washington nearly lost on the road to the woeful Dolphins, which speaks volumes to where the Redskins are this season. The only other team favored by a touchdown or more is New England, as the Patriots head out on the road to take on the Jets on Monday Night Football. Most everyone has already used New England (only 3 of the 17 staffers still have them as options), but they do make for an interesting game theory pick with so many players likely on Buffalo and the 49ers this week. Odds are favorable for the staff to log their first perfect week of the season if both Buffalo and San Francisco can win as expected.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article.

Jeff Pasquino: Week 6 was an easy one since I saved the Patriots, and banking a win on Thursday makes for a restful Sunday. Now, Week 7 is pretty cut and dry for me - although I am breaking one of my Survivor rules. The Buffalo Bills are at home and coming off of a bye week, and they get to host one of the worst teams in the NFL right now in the Dolphins. Even though this is a divisional matchup (the rule that I am breaking), the other factors (home game, big favorite, well-rested) more than outweigh the hesitancy in taking a game between two teams in the same division. The Bills are only usable this week, Week 9 (vs. Washington) and Week 11 (at Miami) - but the best time to use them is clearly now. Thoughts crossed my mind about going in another direction for a game theory-type pick, but Week 7 feels like a "keep it simple, stupid" kind of week.

The Pick: Buffalo Bills

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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