Against The Spread Pool: Week 2

Photo: USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Dave Larkin’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so once again this year Footballguys is proud to bring you the combination of the two - the Footballguys' staff "Against the Spread Pool Challenge". Multiple staff members (19) will pick the winner of each NFL game against the Las Vegas line. As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Against the Spread Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices.

Please note, that this contest should NOT be viewed as direct sports wagering advice, especially later in the season. Since the staff is trying to beat one another, picks may be made to go against the grain in an attempt to try and catch up in the standings. This example of game theory is more in tune towards playing a contest such as this - so again, do not use these picks as direct advice towards which games to pick each and every week. Rather, use these picks to see the top choices each week, especially by the staff members towards the top of the standings.

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

Here are the results from last week:

The first week of the year is typically a challenge, with so many unknowns entering NFL Week 1. The staff had a very strong performance overall with seven of our writers reaching double-digits for correct picks out of the gate, led by Dave Larkin and Danny Tuccitto who both scored 11 correct picks. Dave won the tiebreaker with a total of 44 points for Denver-Oakland, which was only four points too many (Raiders won, 24-16). Both Dave and Danny were followed closely by Jeff Haseley, Aaron Rudnicki, Andy Hicks, Justin Howe and Alex Miglio who all scored 10 correct picks. The overtime win by the Chargers (16 of the 19 staff picks were on Los Angeles) was not enough to cover the point spread, which severely hurt the staff's overall record. Wins by Baltimore (18 correct), Kansas City (15) and Philadelphia (14) helped to elevate the staff record to 153-151 (50.3%) in Week 1, which is a reasonable start to the season. That number is respectable for what typically is a tough week, but keep in mind that this slight winning record is still not good enough to beat the Las Vegas house advantage, which requires a "winning record" to be profitable to be over 52.3%.

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

CONSENSUS WINNERS

As we enter Week 2, there is plenty to discuss regarding early week picks. There is no consensus for this week, but two teams were picked by over 80% of the staff to cover the spread on Sunday - Cincinnati (hosting the 49ers) and the Cowboys (at Washington). The Bengals are slight favorites (-0.5 points) over San Francisco according to CBS Sports, but most Las Vegas lines have the 49ers getting 1.5 or 2 points as an underdog. That slight difference, along with an early kickoff road game after a bad Week 1 for San Francisco points to a Bengal's win in their home opener, which will cover that tiny spread. Dallas is facing another divisional foe in Washington this week, and this will be the Cowboys' first road game of the year. Despite those disadvantages, Dallas is a favorite to win by 4.5 points or more, and the way the Cowboys looked last week (and how Washington folded in Philadelphia after halftime) also points strongly towards a 2-0 start for Dallas. Four additional picks by the staff were slightly one-sided, as the Texans, Buffalo, New England and the Bears all received 14 of 19 staff picks. Week 2 looks to be a week for road teams and favorites, as 10 of 16 majority selections by the staff went to road teams, while only two underdogs (Arizona at Baltimore, Indianapolis at Tennessee) were consensus picks. As always, it will be fun and interesting to see how NFL Week 2 plays out.

ODDS AND ENDS

Only one week of the NFL season is in the books, and the next set of picks are due by Wednesday night. Most of the staff would agree that picking this weekend's games on Wednesday night is very difficult because you don't have much information about injuries and practice. If your league allows you to pick the later games separate from the rest, take advantage of it and make your Sunday and Monday picks as close to the weekend as possible.

A reminder that these picks are against the Las Vegas lines – so getting above 50% is respectable, above 53% gets you into the profitable zone (accounting for the Las Vegas house odds of taking 10% of every losing wager) – and anything above 60% is outstanding. That may sound easy enough, but it is much, much harder than it might seem.

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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