Win. Your. League.

Receive 3 Free Downloads More Details

Projection Reflections: Preseason Week 1 Adjustments - Footballguys

A look at the key projections changes after the first week of the preseason

Projection reflections

At Footballguys, we provide real-time projections all season long. Our first set goes live the day after the NFL draft, and sometimes the changes can get lost in the shuffle. Statistics are the engine behind many of our key features, but numbers are only valuable if there's context. This feature will take a look at the key projections adjustments each week of the preseason, with an eye toward providing context and significance to the numbers. Included in this week's column:

  1. A trio of franchise quarterbacks on the rise
  2. Quarterback ebbs and flows
  3. Small changes with big implications at the top of the running back ranks
  4. Second- and third-down running backs jockeying for position
  5. Reshuffling the Patriots' backfield
  6. Adjusting for Derrius Guice's torn ACL in Washington
  7. Key shifts among the elite receivers
  8. Team-specific wide receiver tandems
  9. Key tight ends in flux
  10. Other running back moves of note
  11. Other wide receiver moves of note
  12. Late-round tight ends worth knowing

Franchise Quarterbacks on the Mend

Rank
Player
Team
Gms
Cmps
Atts
Cmp%
Yds/Att
PaYds
PaTDs
INTs
Rush
RuYds
Yds/Ru
RuTDs
FumLost
FanPts
5
HOU
15
308
509
60.5%
7.2
3,680
25
17
74
395
5.3
3
4
321
11
IND
15
320
510
62.7%
7.4
3,780
25
13
50
240
4.8
2
2
310
12
PHI
15
325
520
62.5%
7.2
3,745
26
12
50
205
4.1
2
3
309

I tend to be ultra-conservative with players recovering from major injuries until we see evidence of progress. In all three cases, my initial projections and rankings for this trio of signal callers were well below consensus. However, all three are progressing well and warranted upgrades.

  • Deshaun Watson tore his ACL last November during practice but was fully recovered for the start of training camp. He's practiced without restriction and played in the first preseason game against the Chiefs. His rushing upside re-establishes Watson as a top-5 fantasy prospect even though his completion rate, yards-per-attempt, and touchdown rate are all due for a regression from last year's truncated breakout.
  • Andrew Luck hadn't thrown a pass in nearly 600 days before getting cleared at the start of training camp. He's been a full participant and looks sharp, and like Watson played in the team's first preseason game. Luck may move higher in subsequent updates, but I still want to see him make all the throws and play more snaps before bumping him back to a full 16-game projection.
  • Carson Wentz tore multiple ligaments last year and has not been fully cleared. He's been held out of 11-on-11 drills for most of the preseason, and there's no definitive timetable for his return. Since he's probably not going to play in the preseason, Wentz' bump is as high as I'm likely to go on him at this point. He's still ranked well below consensus ADP, as I think Wentz is due for regression and is currently overvalued.

Want to see the rest?


Become a Season Long Pro to view the full version of this page.

Satisfaction Guaranteed

"Footballguys is the best premium
fantasy football only site on the planet."

Matthew Berry, ESPN

With our 30-day
Money Back Guarantee
you have nothing to lose