Projection reflections

At Footballguys, we provide real-time projections all season long. Our first set goes live the day after the NFL draft, and sometimes the changes can get lost in the shuffle. Statistics are the engine behind many of our key features, but numbers are only valuable if there's context. This feature will take a look at the key projections adjustments each week of the preseason, with an eye toward providing context and significance to the numbers. Included in this week's column:

A trio of franchise quarterbacks on the rise
Quarterback ebbs and flows
Small changes with big implications at the top of the running back ranks
Second- and third-down running backs jockeying for position
Reshuffling the Patriots' backfield
Adjusting for Derrius Guice's torn ACL in Washington
Key shifts among the elite receivers
Team-specific wide receiver tandems
Key tight ends in flux
Other running back moves of note
Other wide receiver moves of note
Late-round tight ends worth knowing

Franchise Quarterbacks on the Mend

Rank	Player	Team	Gms	Cmps	Atts	Cmp%	Yds/Att	PaYds	PaTDs	INTs	Rush	RuYds	Yds/Ru	RuTDs	FumLost	FanPts
5	Deshaun Watson	HOU	15	308	509	60.5%	7.2	3,680	25	17	74	395	5.3	3	4	321
11	Andrew Luck	IND	15	320	510	62.7%	7.4	3,780	25	13	50	240	4.8	2	2	310
12	Carson Wentz	PHI	15	325	520	62.5%	7.2	3,745	26	12	50	205	4.1	2	3	309

I tend to be ultra-conservative with players recovering from major injuries until we see evidence of progress. In all three cases, my initial projections and rankings for this trio of signal callers were well below consensus. However, all three are progressing well and warranted upgrades.

Deshaun Watson tore his ACL last November during practice but was fully recovered for the start of training camp. He's practiced without restriction and played in the first preseason game against the Chiefs. His rushing upside re-establishes Watson as a top-5 fantasy prospect even though his completion rate, yards-per-attempt, and touchdown rate are all due for a regression from last year's truncated breakout.
Andrew Luck hadn't thrown a pass in nearly 600 days before getting cleared at the start of training camp. He's been a full participant and looks sharp, and like Watson played in the team's first preseason game. Luck may move higher in subsequent updates, but I still want to see him make all the throws and play more snaps before bumping him back to a full 16-game projection.
Carson Wentz tore multiple ligaments last year and has not been fully cleared. He's been held out of 11-on-11 drills for most of the preseason, and there's no definitive timetable for his return. Since he's probably not going to play in the preseason, Wentz' bump is as high as I'm likely to go on him at this point. He's still ranked well below consensus ADP, as I think Wentz is due for regression and is currently overvalued.