Projection Reflections: Preseason Week 1 Adjustments - Footballguys

Projection reflections

At Footballguys, we provide real-time projections all season long. Our first set goes live the day after the NFL draft, and sometimes the changes can get lost in the shuffle. Statistics are the engine behind many of our key features, but numbers are only valuable if there's context. This feature will take a look at the key projections adjustments each week of the preseason, with an eye toward providing context and significance to the numbers. Included in this week's column:

1. A trio of franchise quarterbacks on the rise
2. Quarterback ebbs and flows
3. Small changes with big implications at the top of the running back ranks
4. Second- and third-down running backs jockeying for position
5. Reshuffling the Patriots' backfield
6. Adjusting for Derrius Guice's torn ACL in Washington
7. Key shifts among the elite receivers
8. Team-specific wide receiver tandems
9. Key tight ends in flux
10. Other running back moves of note
11. Other wide receiver moves of note
12. Late-round tight ends worth knowing

Franchise Quarterbacks on the Mend

I tend to be ultra-conservative with players recovering from major injuries until we see evidence of progress. In all three cases, my initial projections and rankings for this trio of signal callers were well below consensus. However, all three are progressing well and warranted upgrades.

• Deshaun Watson tore his ACL last November during practice but was fully recovered for the start of training camp. He's practiced without restriction and played in the first preseason game against the Chiefs. His rushing upside re-establishes Watson as a top-5 fantasy prospect even though his completion rate, yards-per-attempt, and touchdown rate are all due for a regression from last year's truncated breakout.
• Andrew Luck hadn't thrown a pass in nearly 600 days before getting cleared at the start of training camp. He's been a full participant and looks sharp, and like Watson played in the team's first preseason game. Luck may move higher in subsequent updates, but I still want to see him make all the throws and play more snaps before bumping him back to a full 16-game projection.
• Carson Wentz tore multiple ligaments last year and has not been fully cleared. He's been held out of 11-on-11 drills for most of the preseason, and there's no definitive timetable for his return. Since he's probably not going to play in the preseason, Wentz' bump is as high as I'm likely to go on him at this point. He's still ranked well below consensus ADP, as I think Wentz is due for regression and is currently overvalued.

QB2 EBBS AND FLOWS

All of these quarterbacks are drafted in the later rounds as QB2s, but each has undergone a multi-spot move in the rankings over the last few weeks.

• Dak Prescott falls from QB13 to QB17, as training camp has been disappointing so far. Almost every beat writer has characterized Prescott's performance as uneven, at best. His solid showing in the first preseason game helps mitigate the re-rating, but it still warranted bringing down his passing efficiency a bit. Prescott can bounce back with a strong few weeks.
• Andy Dalton is the lone riser in this quartet, but also the least exciting of the bunch. The Bengals' rebuilt offensive line is progressing well, and young receivers John Ross and Tyler Boyd have shown enough to warrant Brandon LaFell's release.
• Mitch Trubisky was the sexy sleeper thanks to Matt Nagy's hire and the major overhaul of the receiving corps, including Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, and rookie Anthony Miller. The hype may have been overdone, and Trubisky hasn't shown anything to warrant the early confidence. It's still early, but for now, he should be viewed as a low-end QB2.
• Jamies Winston's downgrade is the most painful. My projections for Winston were at the high end of the industry, and I felt he had an excellent chance at breaking into the top-8 this year with a stacked supporting cast. The three-game suspension, as well as the commensurate questions about his maturity, forced a meaningful reset of his projections. On a per game basis, he rates higher than QB25, and I would still draft Winston over a handful of quarterbacks projected to finish higher.

Tiny Moves, Big Implications

Sometimes a minor change in the projections can have significant implications. Fantasy managers understandably obsess about early draft picks, in particular, and a few minor tweaks to this group of elite running backs were enough to shift their overall rankings. The net result drops David Johnson to a below-consensus No. 5 while putting Ezekiel Elliott and Alvin Kamara into the top-4 overall. I would recommend drafting both Elliott and Kamara ahead of Antonio Brown (No. 5) but would draft Brown, and possibly DeAndre Hopkins, over Johnson.

• Ezekiel Elliott started the preseason as my No. 4 ranked running back, and gains a single rushing touchdown (13) and a handful of additional targets, receptions, and receiving yards. The offensive line looks better than ever, Elliott is in great shape, and the coaches insist the running backs will be heavier involved in the passing game.
• Alvin Kamara vaults over David Johnson, Antonio Brown, and DeAndre Hopkins with a minor bump in his rushing projections. Mark Ingram II's suspension isn't going to have a huge impact on Kamara's role, but it can't hurt. More importantly, Kamara was dynamic running the ball last year, and it would be illogical not to give him at least ten carries per game this year.
• David Johnson remains a top-5 running back, but the Cardinals offense is concerning, as is the change in coaching staffs. It's risky to assume Johnson's 2016 season is a proxy for future use when Bruce Arians was such a unique play-caller.

Early-Round Running backs in Motion

Most of the running backs in this call-out are getting slight increases, but LeSean McCoy gets a huge jump as his legal situation settles down, for now.

• Christian McCaffrey jumps a few spots into the RB1 tier, thanks to a modest increase in his rushing workload. By now you've heard both Norv Turner and Ron Rivera talk about McCaffrey as a 20+ touch player. I'm not ready to give him that level of work, but 176 carries equate to 11 per game, and we got corroboration of his increased role in the first preseason game. McCaffrey could trend higher here, particularly with a few more short-yardage touchdowns.
• Jerick McKinnon is moving in the wrong direction, but only moderately. Had Matt Breida not injured his shoulder in Week 1, I might have dropped McKinnon a bit more as he looked tentative in his snaps.
• Joe Mixon gets an increased receiving share as I think my initial projections underestimated his role as the feature back. Giovani Bernard isn't going to always replace Mixon in obvious passing downs.
• Jordan Howard gets a modest 15 carry increase and an additional rushing touchdown. Fears his role would be trimmed under Matt Nagy's watch were premature. If anything, it seems Howard's role as the bellcow is secure but Tarik Cohen's role is uncertain (more on that later).
• LeSean McCoy moves back into the top-20, as I had him at just 8 games played after news of domestic abuse accusations surfaced. He's not out of the legal woods, but the further along the preseason goes without further developments, the more he's worth the risk as a low-end RB2.

Sony Michel's Loss is Rex Burkhead's Gain

Handicapping the Patriots backfield is never easy, and it got more complicated when prized first-round rookie Sony Michel hurt his knee in training camp. The team expects Michel back, but missing the entire preseason is sure to set back his role in the complex, veteran-laden offense. Michel's loss is Rex Burkhead's gain, but he's not the only winner worth highlighting.

• Sony Michel's knee injury dropped him into RB4 range, but it's worth noting I was lukewarm on Michel's value before the injury.
• Rex Burkhead showed last year he can be an impact fantasy player when he's the teams No. 1 option. The Patriots are notoriously unpredictable, so Burkhead remains just outside the top-20, but Michel's injury puts in a floor on Burkhead's outlook and makes him a viable fourth- or fifth-round gem.
• James White gets an across the board increase but remains a fringe fantasy asset in 12-team leagues.
• Jeremy Hill and Mike Gillislee get bumps because both have a much better shot at the 53-man roster.

Washington Is In Trouble Without Derrius Guice

Preseason injuries are heart-breaking, and Derrius Guice's torn ACL is the first devastating blow to preseason fantasy hopes. Guice was doing all the right things on and off the field and was rightfully shooting up draft boards. He was a top-20 running back in all formats and could've moved a few slots higher with a strong preseason. He's now lost for the season, and Washington is faced with the harsh reality of an ineffective rushing offense. The team ranked 27th in rushing yards, 21st in rushing touchdowns, and 30th in yards per attempt last season, with the same running back stable.

• Chris Thompson is a top-30 running back in PPR formats, but he got no increase in his projected role with Guice's injury. Thompson already had the third-down receiving role locked up, and he'll continue to be a vital outlet in the passing game and a non-factor on the ground.
• Samaje Perine has gone full circle. This time last year he was the fantasy darling and the presumed savior of the Washington rushing offense. He struggled with the playbook and pass-blocking and was thought to be on the roster bubble a few weeks ago. Now he's in a dead heat for the starting role again.
• Rob Kelley showed up to training camp in fantastic shape, making his former nickname of "Fat Rob" a misnomer. Kelley will compete head-to-head with Perine for the lead role.
• Derrius Guice has been placed on injured reserve and will miss his rookie year. He'll return next season and immediately warrant consideration as a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside.

Shifts Among the Elite Receivers

The receiver position didn't have any major shakeups at the very top, but a handful of important fantasy stars are moving up-and-down the WR2 tier.

• Doug Baldwin is dealing with a knee injury. It's not supposed to last into the regular season, but the uncertainty warranted minor reductions across the board.
• T.Y. Hilton never lacked No. 1 talent, but Andrew Luck's absence was an albatross. With Luck healthy, Hilton moves into second-round consideration.
• Jarvis Landry was paid to be the star in Cleveland, but questions abounded. Now that both Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield look functional, and Corey Coleman is traded, Landry becomes a guaranteed target monster again.
• Tyreek Hill is going to struggle matching last year, with Sammy Watkins replacing Albert Wilson and Patrick Mahomes replacing Alex Smith. But I was too punitive in my first set of projections, and have adjusted accordingly.
• Demaryius Thomas is no spring chicken, rookie Courtland Sutton looks phenomenal, and Case Keenum is not very good.
• Brandin Cooks has No. 1 ability, but a closer analysis of the Rams offense makes 120+ targets unlikely.
• Alshon Jeffery is on the PUP list and was touchdown dependent last year; he needed to be lowered a tier.

Team Tandems (And a Trio)

• Dallas' receiving corps is under renovation, and Michael Gallup and Tavon Austin get the biggest adjustments. Austin isn't yet a viable fantasy commodity but the coaches insist he'll be used in a variety of ways and camp practices corroborate their claims. Gallup is already pushing for a starting spot.
• Denver's depth chart hasn't changed, but Courtland Sutton is off to a strong start and could earn a starting role sooner than anyone expected. Sutton's gain is Emmanuel Sanders' potential loss.
• Jacksonville's receiving corps is surprisingly deep, but I had Keelan Cole too low in my initial projections. He was dynamic after Allen Hurns went down last year, and is running with the first team. Donte Moncrief takes a commensurate hit.
• Miami's receivers are jockeying for roles, and DeVante Parker had the opportunity to fill Jarvis Landry's void. It's not happening. Kenny Stills was a top-30 receiver last year and has been the best pass-catcher on the team this summer.
• San Francisco cannot support two receivers unless Kyle Shanahan completely reshapes his historical tendencies. I had the highest ranking and projection for Marquise Goodwin but had to normalize that until there's evidence he has overtaken Pierre Garcon as the No. 1.
• Tennessee has a new offensive coaching staff, and my assumption Rishard Matthews would remain the No. 1 was illogical. Corey Davis has the pedigree to be a top playmaker, and he's living up to the hype in training camp.
• Washington's receiving corps isn't finalized, but Josh Doctson has faced criticism for his inability to stay on the field, whereas Jamison Crowder is Alex Smith's favorite and Paul Richardson Jr is beating defensive backs deep day after day.

Draftable Tight Ends in Flux

My strategy this year is drafting Rob Gronkowski or waiting until the later rounds for sleeper tight ends. Very little separates the 20th-best tight end and the 8th-best, yet one is going to cost you a mid-round pick while the other can be had in the final round or two. At a position where a missed game or one fewer touchdown can be the difference between three or four rankings spots, volatility is something to embrace.

• Jordan Reed moves from the bottom of the TE1 tier to the Top 5, which speaks to why I'm avoiding most of the consensus top tight ends. If Reed plays 14+ games, he's going to be a difference maker and it's hard to ignore a healthy start to the preseason. At his price, he's worth the upside for the first time in years.
• Evan Engram falls precipitously and becomes un-draftable unless his ADP falls back in line with projections. Engram benefited from Sterling Shepard and Odell Beckham injuries last year, and I fear my initial projections didn't account for that correctly. Making matters worse, he's continued to drop too many passes in training camp, and the coaches are beginning to admonish him openly.
• David Njoku was a trendy pick last year as a rookie, but rookie tight ends rarely deliver value. With the Browns receiver situation thinning out, and Njoku's breakthrough performance in this week's preseason game, he's worth considering as a TE1.
• Charles Clay never plays 16 games, yet my initial projections had him playing a full slate. The Bills also have two viable receivers now in Kelvin Benjamin and Corey Coleman. That's enough to drop Clay into the TE2 tier.
• Trey Burton is another out-of-consensus projection, as I've dropped him from the Top 10 into low-end TE2 consideration. Adam Shaheen may be as talented and is making plays every day in camp.
• Mike Gesicki is a raw, athletic rookie and shouldn't be drafted in most leagues. But the camp reports are glowing, and the Dolphins do need a redzone target or two.
• George Kittle was never high on my board relative to consensus, and the shoulder injury he suffered in Week 1 warrants more caution.
• Tyler Eifert is healthy, for now. You'll not I initially projected him for six games and genuinely doubted his ability to play at all. He's now projected for 12 games, which makes him viable in deeper leagues.

Other Running Back Moves of Note

• Kerryon Johnson has depth chart challenges to overcome, but so far, so good. He's pushing into RB2 territory, and if he gets first-team reps in the second and third preseason games, he'll move another tier higher.
• Tarik Cohen was the earliest beneficiary of the 'Matt Nagy Effect' as some projected him to fill the Tyreek Hill role. Unfortunately, nothing from the coaches mouths or practice reports indicate Cohen is going to have a featured role.
• Jamaal Williams hasn't been handed the No. 1 job, but he gets a slight increase to reflect the strong preseason start; he's received more first-team reps than Aaron Jones or Ty Montgomery.
• Marshawn Lynch gets an increase, but I'm still below consensus. My fears about Oakland's offense remain, but Lynch was much better last year than I remembered, and an adjustment was necessary.
• Ronald Jones II has the talent to become Tampa Bay's top running back, but he hasn't won the job yet. Peyton Barber got all the first-team reps in the opening preseason game. If that continues, Barber will overtake Jones in subsequent projection adjustments.
• Chris Carson has been running with the first team and will have a role even if it's subordinate to Rashaad Penny.
• Matt Breida gets a minor reduction after suffering a shoulder injury in the opening preseason game.
• Peyton Barber got 100% of the Buccaneers' first-team reps in the first preseason game.
• Aaron Jones is suspended for the first two games of the regular season, and Jamaal Williams has been outplaying him in training camp.
• Chase Edmonds has been outstanding in Cardinals camp and has vaulted into David Johnson's handcuff.
• Wayne Gallman pulls slightly ahead of Jonathan Stewart for the No. 2 role behind Saquon Barkley.
• Jonathan Stewart, in spite of his pedigree, has been outplayed by Wayne Gallman.

Other Wide Receiver Moves of Note

• Randall Cobb was in my Top 20, but a re-aggravation of his offseason knee injury warranted a significant projection cut.
• Sterling Shepard looks explosive, and healthy, in training camp while Evan Engram -- his main threat for No. 2 target share -- has struggled.
• Jordy Nelson is still not a high-level fantasy target, but my skepticism was overdone. He's been the best receiver on the Raiders roster so far.
• Christian Kirk had a golden opportunity to step into the No. 2 role immediately, but it's not working out that way.
• Mike Williams looks dominant in red zone drills so far, which pulls him dead even with Tyrell Williams for the Chargers No. 2 role.
• John Brown has broken fantasy owners' hearts many times. A demonstratively strong start to Ravens camp has him pulling us back in.
• John Ross was a non-factor as a rookie but has shown enough to move into the No. 2 role as Brandon LaFell was released.
• Eric Decker signed a one-year contract with New England. It might not mean much in fantasy circles, but he's on the radar.
• Brandon Marshall is on the Seahawks' roster bubble.

Late-Round Tight Ends Worth Knowing

In most leagues, if you don't draft one of the few genuinely elite tight ends, you're going to be playing the waiver wire and matchups all season. The aforementioned tight ends have shown enough in the first few weeks of camp and preseason to warrant paying attention to, but none should be drafted without further evidence they are locked into key roles.

• Blake Jarwin is splitting first-team reps with Geoff Swaim and Dalton Schultz, but beat writers agree Jarwin is the best receiver of the trio. If there is going to be a fantasy-viable tight end in Dallas, Jarwin is the choice.
• Adam Shaheen was a fantasy sleeper last year but had a forgettable rookie season, as most tight ends do. Trey Burton's signing made Shaheen a non-factor, but that's myopic. Shaheen has been stellar in camp and may be more talented than Burton. Both will have roles.
• Dallas Goedert is talented enough to win the starting role on many teams, but not the Eagles because Zach Ertz is in his prime. However, Goedert is running with the first-team in two-tight end sets, and the coaches are talking about him as a red zone specialist.
• Chris Herndon is the apple of beat writers' eyes in New York, but he still hasn't made his preseason debut.
• Jordan Akins was the star of the first preseason game, and it's possible the rookie can win the starting job.

Keep in mind projections are updated in real time. And as projections are updated, the impact immediately flows through the Footballguys tools including customized draft sheets and the Draft Dominator. My views are entirely my own, and other Footballguys have their own sets of projections, including David Dodds, Bob Henry, and Maurile Tremblay.

If you have any questions, you can reach me at Wood@Footballguys.com, or on Twitter: @fbgwood

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