Eliminator Pool: Week 12 - Footballguys

Photo: Kirby Lee, USA Today Sports

Over the past few years, we have given the subscribers of Footballguys.com some help in playing office pools, one of the most popular methods to follow the NFL aside from fantasy football leagues. For the past few seasons, the staff members have done the Staff Confidence Pool Challenge, where numerous staffers try and pick the winners each week with a confidence ranking, and Jeff Pasquino’s “For The Win” column where Jeff attempts to pick each and every NFL game against the Las Vegas spread. Both of these have been very popular features, so this year Footballguys is adding a combination of the two called the “Against the Spread” Challenge and also the Eliminator Challenge, where staffers have to pick a team to win each week. Just one? That sounds easy, but here is the catch – you can only pick the team you choose in a given week once all season long. Many contests and pools out there get pretty big, so an Eliminator (or Survivor) Pool can go 16 or 17 weeks.

Jeff Pasquino has provided some insight into this kind of contest with two preseason articles. The first one that describes this kind of contest along with some advice on how to pick a team each week:

Survivor Pool Strategy

The second article is rather interesting, which describes Jeff’s preseason plan to get all the way through 17 weeks. Will it work? We are about to find out.

I Will Survive

This pool will run all season long, but to keep participation up, the pool will crown the staffer with the best W-L record for the season (which means that everyone in the pool will continue to make picks every week).

LAST WEEK'S RESULTS

NFL Week 11 was another mess, with Arizona's last-second loss to Oakland highlighting a big list of losses for the staff. The Raiders took out the Cardinals and eight of the staff's picks, while Carolina's one-point loss also added two more losses for the group. Pittsburgh and Baltimore were also close calls, but the Falcons' loss to Dallas at home rounded out the week for 11 total staff losses. That puts Aaron Rudnicki in first with a 10-1 record through 11 weeks.

THIS WEEK'S PICK SUMMARY

Here are the picks for this week:

DISCUSSION

The picks are in for Week 12, and once again the proof is in the picks that we are both getting deeper into the regular season and that the picks are getting tougher to make. The majority pick for the staff - 6 of 15 picks (one staffer erred with a duplicate and is re-picking as this is written) came in for Dallas at home against Washington on Thanksgiving Day afternoon. With D.C. losing Alex Smith at quarterback and the Cowboys both at home and on a two-game winning streak, this is a solid choice of a clear favorite. Only two other teams received multiple picks: Baltimore (3) as a big home favorite over Oakland and Indianapolis (2) hosting Miami with the Colts also expected to win big in Week 12. Thanksgiving is popular this week with New Orleans (hosting Atlanta) a unique selection for Andrew Garda, while we also have Sean Settle going solo on the Bears (at Detroit) to start the week. Two more individual picks round out the 15 choices we have so far with Dave Larkin taking Pittsburgh as a slight road favorite in Denver, while Devin Knotts will have to wait until Monday to see how his pick of Houston at home (over Tennessee) wraps up the week. Anything can happen on any given Sunday (or Monday), but there is little doubt that the results for Week 12 will be very interesting once the games end on Monday.

Please note a few things: We will be doing these picks every week, win or lose, to keep it entertaining all season long. Normally a Survivor/Eliminator pool would end once all but one player lost once, but to provide our subscribers with more perspectives, everyone will pick every week even if they lose. That said, we will still try and honor the spirit of an Eliminator / Survivor Pool, trying to win every week and not re-use any teams during the year.

COMMENTARY

Each week, contestants are invited to submit any comments that they might have about their picks. If they submit them early enough, we post them with the article. If not, the comments will be within the section below.

Jeff Pasquino: Going back to my preseason plan, I had targeted the Chargers hosting Arizona, but I have already used Los Angeles, so clearly I had to divert from that plan. Fortunately, I was able to identify the Ravens as a good target for this week as an expected double-digit favorite at home against the Raiders. Oakland did win over Arizona last week, but the Raiders face a tough trip to Baltimore in the cold for an early kickoff in Week 12. Even with Lamar Jackson under center, Baltimore is expected to win by a comfortable margin this week and is a -600 favorite on the money line. That translates to about an 85% chance of winning, so always take odds like that.

The Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Good luck this weekend!

Questions, suggestions, and comments are always welcome to pasquino@footballguys.com

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