Quarterback By Committee 2014

Photo: Orlando Ramirez, USA Today Sports

This is the eleventh straight season that Footballguys.com has published its annual Quarterback By Commitee article.  For those fantasy players who like to wait on drafting their quarterback while stocking their team at the other positions, this is the article for you. 

Quarterback scoring is significantly higher than it used to be; the reason I started writing the QBBC article was because there were only a handful of elite fantasy quarterbacks.  Technically, that's still true -- being QB12 won't make you elite -- but it is easy to make the argument that any number of roughly half the starting quarterbacks in the NFL could finish with top-five seasons.  Years ago, the options were:

• Spend an early pick on one of the four or five elite quarterbacks;
• Settle (i.e., reach) for QB7-QB12 a few rounds later; or
• Go the QBBC route, and find two top-18 quarterbacks with great schedules

The general rule for QBBC fans is that the first six rounds of your draft should be used to assemble a wealth of talent at running back, wide receiver, and, if the draft unfolds in such a way, tight end. By going the QBBC route, you can save those high picks in your draft and still get solid fantasy production by grabbing two QBs who face bad defenses nearly every week of the year. That's what the QBBC system is all about.

Of course, in some leagues, QB10 can now be had as late as the seventh round, and your fifth-ranked quarterback could still be available that late. One could argue that the best strategy is 2014 is to wait until the first ten quarterbacks are off the board and then draft a couple of quarterbacks at a nice discount. Colin Kaepernick, Tony Romo, and Russell Wilson have ADPs of QB11, QB12, and QB13, and all have high upside for 2014. That's one option, but another option is to wait even longer and implement a quarterback-by-committee strategy.

The first key, of course, is to rank the defenses. I always start by adjusting last season's data on defenses for strength of schedule. I started with the adjusted FP rankings for each defense listed in the Rearview QB article. Then, I made some adjustments to the defenses based on their efficiency numbers from 2013 and what's happened since the end of last season. The table below lists my rating for defenses for fantasy quarterbacks, listed from the toughest (the Seahawks) to the easiest (Dallas).  Quarterbacks facing Seattle should expect to produce about five fantasy points below average, while passers facing the Cowboys will be projected to score three more points than average.

The main key to the QBBC philosophy is to identify which defenses should rank in the bottom quarter of the league when it comes to stopping quarterbacks. Oakland, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Minnesota, and Dallas were juicy matchups for fantasy quarterbacks last year, and project as similarly enticing in 2014. San Diego, Indianapolis, and Philadelphia look are attractive, too, as those teams are likely to get into some shootouts this year. The Chargers and Colts have a lot of question marks on defense, and while the Eagles defense was pretty efficient last year, the fast-paced offense leads to lots of opportunities for opposing quarterbacks.

Once we rank the defenses, it's easy to then figure out which QB pairings work based on schedule. When the quarterback is home, his opponents gets a +0.3 adjustment, so a quarterback hosting the Cowboys receives a score of +3.3.  When that quarterback is on the road, adjustment is 0.3 in the other direction, so playing in Dallas is worth +2.7. Below is a list of all 496 possible combinations. These are ranked from most favorable to least, with strength of schedule being the only determining factor.

The top combination, based purely on strength of schedule, would be the Giants and Buccaneers. But the second best combination features New York and the Bears, and an Eli Manning/Jay Cutler combination is a bit more palatable to me.  Consider that in 2013, the Chicago team quarterback ranked 4th in fantasy points. And while Manning had a terrible season last year, an improved offensive line and the additions of Odell Beckham, Jr. and Rashad Jennings could lead to a rebound season. More importantly, take a look at the combined schedule of Manning and Cutler:

• Week 1: Giants @ Lions
• Week 2: Giants vs. Cardinals
• Week 3: Giants vs. Texans
• Week 4: Bears vs. Packers
• Week 5: Giants vs. Falcons
• Week 6: Bears @ Falcons
• Week 7: Giants @ Cowboys
• Week 8: Bears @ Patriots
• Week 9: Giants vs. Colts
• Week 10: Bears @ Packers
• Week 11: Bears vs. Vikings
• Week 12: Giants vs. Cowboys
• Week 13: Giants @ Jaguars
• Week 14: Bears vs. Cowboys
• Week 15: Giants vs. Redskins
• Week 16: Bears vs. Lions

Having a great fantasy quarterback is nice, but having a great fantasy schedule without having to use high draft picks is really nice, too.  Here, we get three games against the Cowboys defense, which projects as the most favorable fantasy opponent this season.  The duo also has two games each against the Falcons and Lions, one each against the Jaguars and Vikings, and also home games against Indianapolis, Green Bay, and Washington. Just about every week the matchup is strong, and the combination has only six road games.

Of course, if you don't want Cutler and Manning, you can scan the table above and find how any other pair of schedules interact. Manning's schedule also teams up well with not just Cutler and Josh McCown, but Ryan Tannehill, Tony Romo, Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger, Andy Dalton, and a host of others. Cutler's schedule works well with Carson Palmer, Dalton, and Roethlisberger, too.

Picking Just One Quarterback?

Even if you don't believe in committees, or have no preset draft plan, it pays to know how tough of a schedule each team has. So let's close with a look at the quarterbacks with the easiest schedules. In leagues with small rosters, it's difficult to go QBBC, so it's helpful to know which quarterbacks have the easiest (EJ Manuel) and toughest (Matt Schaub) schedules.

Peyton Manning's schedule looks a lot harder this year, but he's still Peyton Manning. Meanwhile, Tom Brady and Andrew Luck each have top-ten schedules in 2014. If you're looking to break some times, the above table should help.