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Quarterback By Committee

Navigating the 2013 schedule to find quarterback sleepers

This is the tenth straight season that Footballguys.com has published its annual Quarterback By Commitee article.  For those fantasy players who like to wait on drafting their quarterback while stocking their team at the other positions, this is the article for you. But it's going to have a different tone in 2013.

Quarterback scoring is significantly higher than it used to be; the reason I started writing the QBBC article was because there were only a handful of elite fantasy quarterbacks.  Technically, that's still true -- being QB12 won't make you elite -- but it is easy to make the argument that any number of 12-13 quarterbacks could finish with top-five seasons.  Years ago, the options were:

  • Spend an early pick on one of the four or five elite quarterbacks;
  • Settle (i.e., reach) for QB7-QB12 a few rounds later; or
  • Go the QBBC route, and find two top-18 quarterbacks with great schedules

Now, QB10 can be had in the seventh round (in some leagues), and since there are good arguments to be made for several quarterbacks, your fifth-ranked quarterback could be available that late. I think the best strategy in 2013 is to wait until the first ten quarterbacks are off the board and then draft a couple of quarterbacks at a nice discount. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are usually off the board before the end of round two in most leagues.  Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Tom Brady form the next mini-tier, and I would let your leaguemates draft those players.

The next tier consists of Matthew Stafford, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Tony Romo.  In other words, in a 12-team league, as long as no team drafts its second quarterback early, you can wait a long time and simply take the last of those twelve players (or the second to last, if you don't like one of those last two quarterbacks).  Then, there's usually a wait until the next quarterbacks (Eli Manning, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, and Jay Cutler) are off the board.

So I think there are three legitimate options to consider this year.

  • Option 1: Wait until at least 10 quarterbacks are off the board, and get into a staring contest with the 12th member of your league to see who will wait the longest to draft a quarterback. You can end up with someone like Romo or Wilson and only have to use a mid-round pick. Your goal should be to take a quarterback right before the first team that wants to select a backup quarterback does so, which could be as late as round nine or ten. (Obviously, this is not a viable strategy in 14-team leagues, but it's an even better one in 10-team leagues.)
  • Option 2(a): Use quarterback-by-committee. As it turns out, the schedules are not in our favor this year.  What do I mean by that? The ideal QBBC combo would be if QB13 and QB14 had a great combined schedule. As it turns out, most of the best schedules are held by teams with very good quarterbacks (Denver) or quarterbacks outside the top twenty (the Jets/Chiefs). Selecting Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill would be a great pair according to SOS, and that duo has some upside, but that's a very risky pick.
  • Option 2(b): Use quarterback-by-committee, but don't make the picks based just on strength of schedule. If you want to limit yourself to top-16 quarterbacks, Andy Dalton and Ben Roethlisberger have a very good (if not great) combined schedule.

Assuming you want to go the QBBC route, the first step is to rank the defenses. I always start by adjusting last season's data on defenses for strength of schedule. I started with the adjusted FP rankings for each defense listed in the Rearview QB article. Then, I make some adjustments to the defenses based on what's happened since the end of last season. The table below lists my rating for defenses for fantasy quarterbacks, listed from the toughest (the Seahawks) to the easiest (New England).

RankTeamGrade
1 Seattle Seahawks -3.7
2 Pittsburgh Steelers -3.6
3 Arizona Cardinals -3.6
4 Chicago Bears -3.3
5 Baltimore Ravens -2.5
6 Carolina Panthers -2.1
7 New York Jets -2
8 Cincinnati Bengals -2
9 San Francisco 49ers -1.8
10 Atlanta Falcons -1.7
11 New York Giants -1.2
12 Denver Broncos -0.8
13 Dallas Cowboys -0.7
14 St. Louis Rams -0.4
15 Kansas City Chiefs 0
16 San Diego Chargers 0.3
17 Cleveland Browns 0.4
18 Miami Dolphins 0.5
19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.8
20 Green Bay Packers 1
21 Jacksonville Jaguars 1
22 Detroit Lions 1.2
23 Philadelphia Eagles 1.4
24 Houston Texans 1.4
25 Indianapolis Colts 1.9
26 Washington Redskins 2
27 Oakland Raiders 2.2
28 Minnesota Vikings 2.6
29 New Orleans Saints 2.8
30 Tennessee Titans 2.9
31 Buffalo Bills 3.4
32 New England Patriots 3.4

They key to the QBBC philosophy is to identify which defenses should rank in the bottom quarter of the league when it comes to stopping quarterbacks. New England, Buffalo, and Tennessee were juicy matchups for fantasy quarterbacks last year, and project as similarly enticing in 2013. Quarterbacks facing the Patriots and Bills should be expected to scored 3.4 more fantasy points than they would against an average defense. Teams like the Patriots, Saints, Redskins, and Colts are attractive opponents for another reason: because they have superstar quarterbacks, those games are more likely to feature shootouts. The fast tempo in New England also leads to more plays for Patriots opponents.

Once we rank the defenses, it's easy to then figure out which QB pairings work based on schedule. When the quarterback is home, his opponents gets a +0.3 adjustment, so a quarterback hosting the Patriots receives a score of +3.7.  When that quarterback is on the road, adjustment is 0.3 in the other direction, so playing in Foxboro is worth +3.1. Below is a list of all 496 possible combinations. These are ranked from most favorable to least, with strength of schedule being the only determining factor. The Jets and Cowboys have the easiest combined schedule, but that's obviously not a real QBBC: if you draft Tony Romo, you're going to start him every week.

 

RkCombinationValueRkCombinationValueRkCombinationValueRkCombinationValueRkCombinationValue
1 DAL-NYJ 32.2 101 BAL-KC 22.7 201 CHI-DET 18.7 301 SEA-SF 15.4 401 IND-PHI 10.1
2 DEN-NYJ 31.9 102 DAL-KC 22.7 202 CIN-SF 18.7 302 HOU-OAK 15.4 402 NE-SEA 10.1
3 JAC-NYJ 31.1 103 CIN-DAL 22.6 203 ATL-WAS 18.6 303 ARI-SEA 15.4 403 CAR-TB 9.9
4 KC-MIA 30.7 104 DAL-JAC 22.6 204 CAR-SEA 18.6 304 IND-NE 15.3 404 ARI-TB 9.9
5 JAC-SEA 29.9 105 DET-NYJ 22.5 205 DAL-NYG 18.6 305 CLE-TEN 15.3 405 ARI-GB 9.7
6 GB-NYJ 29.2 106 CHI-PHI 22.5 206 DAL-DET 18.6 306 CAR-MIN 15.2 406 DET-NO 9.5
7 KC-PIT 29.2 107 CIN-OAK 22.5 207 NE-SD 18.6 307 CLE-PHI 15.2 407 CLE-MIN 9.5
8 DEN-HOU 29.1 108 DAL-SF 22.5 208 BAL-JAC 18.6 308 DET-PHI 14.8 408 NO-PHI 9.4
9 CLE-MIA 28.1 109 KC-PHI 22.5 209 DAL-IND 18.6 309 BUF-OAK 14.8 409 ARI-TEN 9.4
10 ARI-KC 28.1 110 ATL-CHI 22.4 210 OAK-TB 18.5 310 BAL-BUF 14.8 410 IND-NO 9.4
11 IND-KC 27.9 111 DEN-STL 22.4 211 CHI-DAL 18.5 311 ARI-OAK 14.8 411 ARI-NO 9.3
12 JAC-KC 27.9 112 CLE-OAK 22.4 212 NYG-SEA 18.5 312 CAR-DET 14.7 412 DET-GB 9.2
13 CIN-MIA 27.8 113 DAL-SD 22.4 213 PHI-SF 18.5 313 ATL-MIN 14.7 413 DET-TEN 8.9
14 DEN-IND 27.8 114 BAL-MIA 22.4 214 BUF-CAR 18.4 314 NO-SF 14.7 414 BAL-STL 8.4
15 MIA-SEA 27.7 115 JAC-PHI 22.3 215 DEN-MIN 18.3 315 HOU-NE 14.6 415 NE-NYJ 8.4
16 ATL-KC 27.4 116 PIT-SF 22.3 216 CLE-SD 18.3 316 PHI-TB 14.6 416 NE-TB 8.3
17 CHI-NYJ 27.2 117 ATL-TB 22.2 217 PHI-SD 18.2 317 BAL-NE 14.6 417 BUF-CLE 8.3
18 DEN-KC 27.2 118 ARI-SD 22.2 218 ARI-BAL 18.2 318 BUF-TEN 14.4 418 BAL-NO 8.3
19 MIA-NYJ 27.1 119 IND-JAC 22.2 219 IND-PIT 18.2 319 OAK-SEA 14.4 419 GB-NYG 8.2
20 ATL-DAL 27 120 CIN-GB 22.2 220 ATL-NO 18.1 320 ARI-PHI 14.3 420 STL-TEN 8.1
21 NYJ-STL 27 121 HOU-JAC 22.2 221 ARI-CLE 18.1 321 CHI-NYG 14.3 421 BUF-STL 8
22 DEN-PIT 26.8 122 BUF-NYJ 22.1 222 OAK-PIT 18.1 322 NE-TEN 14.3 422 MIN-TEN 8
23 HOU-MIA 26.8 123 HOU-NYJ 22.1 223 CIN-WAS 18.1 323 HOU-MIN 14.3 423 NYG-TEN 7.8
24 NYJ-SD 26.8 124 KC-SF 22.1 224 CHI-WAS 18.1 324 KC-NYJ 14.3 424 DEN-JAC 7.7
25 CHI-DEN 26.7 125 CIN-DEN 22 225 SF-WAS 18 325 CAR-NE 14.2 425 MIN-PHI 7.6
26 MIN-NYJ 26.7 126 MIA-PIT 22 226 CAR-CLE 18 326 ATL-TEN 14.2 426 ARI-MIN 7.2
27 DAL-DEN 26.3 127 ARI-CAR 21.9 227 DEN-NE 18 327 DET-OAK 14.2 427 GB-TEN 7.2
28 DEN-SD 26.3 128 ATL-SEA 21.8 228 MIA-NYG 18 328 SD-STL 14.2 428 JAC-SF 7.1
29 NYJ-PIT 26.3 129 KC-NO 21.8 229 PIT-TEN 18 329 BUF-HOU 14.1 429 CIN-CLE 7
30 NO-NYJ 26.2 130 MIA-OAK 21.8 230 SF-TB 18 330 CLE-GB 14 430 BUF-NO 6.9
31 ATL-CAR 26.1 131 ATL-JAC 21.7 231 PHI-PIT 17.9 331 CIN-TEN 14 431 NO-WAS 6.9
32 DEN-MIA 26.1 132 BAL-DEN 21.7 232 NYG-TB 17.9 332 JAC-MIN 14 432 NO-STL 6.3
33 DET-MIA 26.1 133 KC-SD 21.6 233 JAC-TB 17.9 333 DAL-NO 13.9 433 ATL-MIA 6.3
34 MIA-SD 26.1 134 HOU-NYG 21.6 234 ATL-GB 17.8 334 MIN-SEA 13.9 434 NO-SEA 6
35 JAC-SD 26.1 135 NYG-SD 21.6 235 BUF-SD 17.8 335 CHI-NO 13.9 435 MIN-SF 6
36 ARI-NYJ 26 136 JAC-OAK 21.5 236 ARI-HOU 17.8 336 BAL-WAS 13.8 436 HOU-SD 6
37 CIN-PIT 26 137 ATL-BAL 21.4 237 CHI-OAK 17.8 337 ARI-ATL 13.6 437 DET-TB 5.8
38 CHI-KC 25.9 138 GB-SD 21.4 238 CIN-NYG 17.8 338 BUF-NYG 13.6 438 GB-NO 5.7
39 KC-WAS 25.8 139 NYG-PHI 21.3 239 CIN-TB 17.8 339 STL-WAS 13.5 439 BAL-HOU 5.5
40 CIN-JAC 25.8 140 NYG-OAK 21.2 240 MIN-SD 17.7 340 BAL-OAK 13.5 440 CLE-NYJ 5.3
41 GB-KC 25.7 141 CLE-DAL 21.1 241 GB-WAS 17.7 341 CLE-STL 13.4 441 BUF-DET 5
42 CAR-KC 25.5 142 MIA-PHI 21.1 242 BUF-DAL 17.6 342 CAR-TEN 13.4 442 GB-MIN 5
43 KC-TEN 25.5 143 DEN-TEN 21.1 243 SD-TB 17.6 343 GB-STL 13.4 443 BUF-MIN 4.8
44 ATL-CIN 25.4 144 ARI-PIT 21.1 244 DET-KC 17.5 344 BUF-WAS 13.3 444 NO-TB 4.8
45 KC-NYG 25.3 145 CIN-IND 21.1 245 SEA-TB 17.5 345 SEA-WAS 13.3 445 BUF-NE 4.6
46 CAR-MIA 25.2 146 HOU-SF 21.1 246 DAL-NE 17.3 346 DET-HOU 13.3 446 DEN-NYG 4.5
47 CLE-PIT 25.2 147 CAR-PHI 20.8 247 JAC-STL 17.3 347 ATL-DET 13.2 447 PIT-TB 3.1
48 BAL-NYJ 25.1 148 NYJ-TEN 20.8 248 BUF-MIA 17.2 348 BUF-SF 13.2 448 CIN-PHI 2.9
49 DEN-PHI 25.1 149 DAL-PHI 20.7 249 CIN-SD 17.2 349 BAL-DET 13.1 449 ARI-DEN 2.8
50 KC-OAK 25.1 150 BAL-CAR 20.7 250 CHI-JAC 17.1 350 ATL-NE 13 450 CHI-SD 2.8
51 CAR-NYJ 25 151 CHI-NE 20.6 251 ATL-BUF 17 351 CHI-GB 13 451 NE-NO 2.7
52 NYJ-OAK 25 152 DAL-WAS 20.5 252 DET-SD 17 352 CAR-NO 12.9 452 BAL-IND 2.6
53 PIT-SD 24.9 153 BUF-DEN 20.4 253 NYG-PIT 17 353 MIA-MIN 12.9 453 DEN-SF 2.4
54 NYG-NYJ 24.8 154 GB-PIT 20.4 254 CHI-MIN 16.9 354 CIN-STL 12.9 454 IND-SD 2.2
55 CAR-DAL 24.7 155 ARI-MIA 20.4 255 GB-OAK 16.9 355 MIN-OAK 12.8 455 MIN-NE 2
56 ATL-SD 24.7 156 CLE-HOU 20.3 256 BUF-KC 16.9 356 MIN-NYG 12.8 456 JAC-NYG 2
57 DAL-PIT 24.7 157 CAR-IND 20.2 257 MIA-STL 16.9 357 BAL-TB 12.7 457 MIN-STL 1.9
58 KC-TB 24.6 158 CLE-DEN 20.1 258 CLE-WAS 16.8 358 BAL-MIN 12.6 458 BAL-CHI 1.9
59 NYJ-SEA 24.6 159 CAR-STL 20 259 DET-PIT 16.8 359 BUF-PIT 12.4 459 CLE-KC 1.6
60 KC-SEA 24.5 160 ATL-NYG 20 260 HOU-NO 16.8 360 NO-NYG 12.4 460 DEN-DET 1.2
61 ATL-PIT 24.4 161 IND-MIA 20 261 GB-HOU 16.8 361 CLE-SF 12.4 461 CLE-DET 0.7
62 DEN-SEA 24.4 162 CLE-IND 20 262 BUF-TB 16.7 362 SF-TEN 12.4 462 KC-NE 0.7
63 CIN-HOU 24.3 163 CHI-CIN 20 263 HOU-STL 16.7 363 NE-PHI 12.3 463 CHI-HOU 0.7
64 BAL-NYG 24.3 164 MIA-TEN 20 264 NE-OAK 16.7 364 CIN-DET 12.2 464 DET-MIN 0.4
65 DEN-OAK 24.2 165 BAL-DAL 19.9 265 NE-PIT 16.7 365 SEA-TEN 12.2 465 BAL-SD 0.3
66 NYJ-SF 24.2 166 SD-SF 19.9 266 SF-STL 16.7 366 CLE-TB 12.1 466 DET-JAC 0.1
67 HOU-KC 24.2 167 JAC-NE 19.9 267 SD-WAS 16.7 367 NO-TEN 12 467 MIN-NO -0.2
68 ATL-NYJ 24 168 NYJ-WAS 19.8 268 NYG-STL 16.6 368 DET-SEA 11.9 468 CAR-GB -0.4
69 CAR-JAC 24 169 MIA-WAS 19.7 269 ARI-IND 16.6 369 NE-STL 11.9 469 ARI-JAC -0.4
70 CHI-MIA 24 170 CHI-SEA 19.7 270 ATL-OAK 16.5 370 BUF-IND 11.9 470 BAL-TEN -0.4
71 MIA-TB 24 171 JAC-MIA 19.7 271 DEN-NO 16.5 371 IND-OAK 11.9 471 BUF-SEA -0.7
72 CHI-PIT 24 172 CAR-NYG 19.6 272 DET-IND 16.5 372 IND-SEA 11.9 472 CHI-IND -0.8
73 DAL-HOU 23.9 173 CIN-KC 19.6 273 GB-SEA 16.5 373 STL-TB 11.8 473 SD-TEN -0.9
74 CAR-DEN 23.8 174 JAC-TEN 19.6 274 GB-JAC 16.5 374 NE-WAS 11.7 474 ARI-NYG -1.3
75 NYJ-TB 23.8 175 DAL-GB 19.5 275 JAC-NO 16.5 375 CHI-STL 11.7 475 PHI-SEA -2.1
76 ATL-DEN 23.8 176 GB-IND 19.5 276 OAK-PHI 16.4 376 GB-SF 11.7 476 DET-NE -2.4
77 CIN-NYJ 23.8 177 CHI-CLE 19.5 277 CAR-CIN 16.4 377 MIA-NO 11.5 477 BUF-CIN -2.4
78 ARI-CIN 23.8 178 DAL-TEN 19.4 278 BAL-PHI 16.3 378 GB-NE 11.5 478 ARI-SF -2.6
79 BAL-SF 23.7 179 ARI-CHI 19.4 279 OAK-SF 16.2 379 OAK-TEN 11.3 479 HOU-TEN -3.3
80 CAR-PIT 23.7 180 HOU-SEA 19.4 280 ATL-SF 16.2 380 CLE-SEA 11.2 480 IND-TEN -3.8
81 CAR-OAK 23.6 181 ARI-BUF 19.3 281 PIT-STL 16.1 381 IND-MIN 11.2 481 CHI-TEN -3.9
82 MIA-NE 23.6 182 IND-NYG 19.3 282 BUF-CHI 16.1 382 IND-WAS 11.2 482 DET-NYG -3.9
83 BAL-GB 23.5 183 JAC-WAS 19.3 283 NO-SD 16.1 383 NE-SF 11.2 483 BUF-PHI -5
84 NYJ-PHI 23.4 184 ATL-PHI 19.2 284 BAL-CLE 16 384 PHI-WAS 11.1 484 NYG-SF -5
85 CLE-JAC 23.4 185 KC-MIN 19.2 285 NE-NYG 15.9 385 DET-WAS 11.1 485 ARI-DET -5.1
86 DAL-TB 23.3 186 MIA-SF 19.2 286 OAK-SD 15.9 386 OAK-WAS 11.1 486 NO-OAK -5.3
87 JAC-PIT 23.3 187 IND-TB 19.2 287 BAL-SEA 15.9 387 IND-STL 11.1 487 CIN-SEA -5.6
88 CAR-CHI 23.2 188 CHI-TB 19.1 288 HOU-TB 15.9 388 CLE-NO 11 488 TB-WAS -5.7
89 CAR-SD 23.2 189 DEN-GB 19.1 289 HOU-PHI 15.7 389 OAK-STL 11 489 HOU-IND -6.2
90 BAL-PIT 23.1 190 SD-SEA 19.1 290 ATL-HOU 15.7 390 BUF-GB 10.9 490 PIT-WAS -6.2
91 DAL-OAK 23 191 ATL-CLE 18.9 291 DEN-TB 15.7 391 DAL-MIN 10.8 491 DAL-STL -7.7
92 DAL-MIA 23 192 CAR-WAS 18.9 292 CAR-HOU 15.6 392 ARI-WAS 10.6 492 MIN-PIT -8
93 ATL-STL 22.9 193 DAL-SEA 18.9 293 CIN-NO 15.6 393 TEN-WAS 10.6 493 MIN-WAS -9.9
94 CHI-SF 22.8 194 GB-MIA 18.9 294 NYG-WAS 15.5 394 NO-PIT 10.5 494 DET-SF -9.9
95 DEN-WAS 22.8 195 KC-STL 18.9 295 ARI-STL 15.5 395 PHI-STL 10.4 495 MIN-TB -11.5
96 IND-NYJ 22.8 196 IND-SF 18.9 296 BAL-CIN 15.5 396 ARI-NE 10.4 496 CLE-NE -12.3
97 HOU-PIT 22.8 197 CIN-MIN 18.8 297 CLE-NYG 15.5 397 TB-TEN 10.2
98 PIT-SEA 22.8 198 GB-PHI 18.8 298 ATL-IND 15.4 398 SEA-STL 10.2
99 CAR-SF 22.7 199 BUF-JAC 18.7 299 PHI-TEN 15.4 399 GB-TB 10.2
100 ARI-DAL 22.7 200 HOU-WAS 18.7 300 CIN-NE 15.4 400 DET-STL 10.1

Option 2(a): Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill

Jason Wood recently highlighted why Alex Smith is a sleeper we should all be keeping an eye on this August. Smith is in his prime, Andy Reid is a quarterback whisperer, the Chiefs are likely to be trailing in games, and we've seen some hints that Kansas City will be playing at a faster pace this year.  Add in an easy schedule, and Smith is definitely a player to keep an eye on. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill is a breakout candidate, as the second-year quarterback can add some value with his legs and now gets to play with ex-Steeler Mike Wallace. Quarterbacks often make the biggest jump between years one and two, so Tannehill will be an interesting player to monitor. Here is the combined schedule for the two, based solely on picking the easier projected opponent each week:

Week 1: Kansas City @ Jacksonville (0.7)
Week 2: Miami @ Indianapolis (1.6)
Week 3: Kansas City @ Philadelphia (1.1)
Week 4: Miami @ New Orleans (2.5)
Week 5: Kansas City @ Tennessee (2.6)
Week 6: Kansas City vs. Oakland (2.5)
Week 7: Miami vs. Buffalo (3.7)
Week 8: Miami @New England (3.1)
Week 9: Kansas City @ Buffalo (3.1)
Week 10: Miami @ Tampa Bay (0.5)
Week 11: Miami vs. San Diego (0.6)
Week 12: Kansas City vs. San Diego (0.6)
Week 13: Kansas City vs. Denver (-0.5)
Week 14: Kansas City at Washington (1.7)
Week 15: Miami vs. New England (3.7)
Week 16: Miami @ Buffalo (3.1)

That's an excellent combined schedule for those teams, and I think you could mix and match those quarterbacks with good results.  But I understand if you're a little nervous going bargain-shopping at quarterback.  The next section is for the more risk-averse owners.

Option 2(b): Andy Dalton and Ben Roethlisberger:

Here is the combined schedule for Dalton and Roethlisberger, two players you can grab after the first twelve quarterbacks have been drafted.

Week 1: Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee (3.2)
Week 2: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (-2.3)
Week 3: Cincinnati vs. Green Bay (1.3)
Week 4: Pittsburgh @ Minnesota (2.3)
Week 5: Cincinnati vs. New England (3.7)
Week 6: Cincinnati @ Buffalo (3.1)
Week 7: Cincinnati @ Detroit (0.9)
Week 8: Pittsburgh @ Oakland (1.9)
Week 9: Pittsburgh @ New England (3.1)
Week 10: Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo (3.7)
Week 11: Pittsburgh vs. Detroit (1.5)
Week 12: Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (0.1)
Week 13: Cincinnati @ San Diego (0)
Week 14: Cincinnati vs. Indianapolis (2.2)
Week 15: Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati (-1.7)
Week 16: Cincinnati vs. Minnesota (2.9)

That's a very nice schedule for two top-15 quarterbacks, a great option for folks who want to wait a long time before they select their quarterback. You can be the owner who drafts the 13th and 14th quarterbacks off the board.  Ideally, you would do this back to back in the mid-to-late rounds of your draft, and with Roethlisberger and Dalton, you have a reasonably high floor of expected production.

Just Want One?

Finally, I will close with a look at the quarterbacks with the easiest schedules. In leagues with small rosters, it's difficult to go QBBC, so it's helpful to know which quarterbacks have the easiest (Alex Smith) and toughest (Christian Ponder) schedules. If you want to go the "Stud QB" option, this might also make you select Peyton Manning over Drew Brees.

RkTeamPts
1 Kansas City Chiefs 16
2 Denver Broncos 12.8
3 New York Jets 11.7
4 San Diego Chargers 9.8
5 Dallas Cowboys 8.4
6 Jacksonville Jaguars 6.9
7 Miami Dolphins 5.7
8 Chicago Bears 4.6
9 Atlanta Falcons 3.7
10 Carolina Panthers 3.1
11 Pittsburgh Steelers 3.1
12 Oakland Raiders 2.7
13 Houston Texans 2.2
14 Philadelphia Eagles 1.7
15 New York Giants 0.6
16 Washington Redskins 0.3
17 Indianapolis Colts 0.1
18 Cincinnati Bengals -0.1
19 Arizona Cardinals -0.6
20 Baltimore Ravens -0.6
21 San Francisco 49ers -1.4
22 Seattle Seahawks -3
23 Cleveland Browns -4.4
24 Green Bay Packers -5
25 Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6
26 Buffalo Bills -6.1
27 Tennessee Titans -6.4
28 New England Patriots -7.1
29 Detroit Lions -10.6
30 St. Louis Rams -11.1
31 New Orleans Saints -15.2
32 Minnesota Vikings -15.6

More from Chase Stuart:

Running Back Production by Quarter (2014) - July 29
Running Back Workload Part II - July 18
Running Back Workload - July 11
Running Back Fantasy Production in Wins and Losses - July 7
Quarterback By Committee 2014 - June 19
Rearview QB - June 5
A Starting Point for 2014 Running Back Projections - May 27
How to Project Receiving Yards In 2014 - May 14
Cross-Team Running Back Handcuffs - August 28
Search our Stats: A Guide to the Data Dominator, Historical Data Dominator, and Game Log Dominator - August 14