Quarterback By Committee

Photo: Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports

This is the tenth straight season that Footballguys.com has published its annual Quarterback By Commitee article.  For those fantasy players who like to wait on drafting their quarterback while stocking their team at the other positions, this is the article for you. But it's going to have a different tone in 2013.

Quarterback scoring is significantly higher than it used to be; the reason I started writing the QBBC article was because there were only a handful of elite fantasy quarterbacks.  Technically, that's still true -- being QB12 won't make you elite -- but it is easy to make the argument that any number of 12-13 quarterbacks could finish with top-five seasons.  Years ago, the options were:

• Spend an early pick on one of the four or five elite quarterbacks;
• Settle (i.e., reach) for QB7-QB12 a few rounds later; or
• Go the QBBC route, and find two top-18 quarterbacks with great schedules

Now, QB10 can be had in the seventh round (in some leagues), and since there are good arguments to be made for several quarterbacks, your fifth-ranked quarterback could be available that late. I think the best strategy in 2013 is to wait until the first ten quarterbacks are off the board and then draft a couple of quarterbacks at a nice discount. Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are usually off the board before the end of round two in most leagues.  Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Tom Brady form the next mini-tier, and I would let your leaguemates draft those players.

The next tier consists of Matthew Stafford, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin III III, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, and Tony Romo.  In other words, in a 12-team league, as long as no team drafts its second quarterback early, you can wait a long time and simply take the last of those twelve players (or the second to last, if you don't like one of those last two quarterbacks).  Then, there's usually a wait until the next quarterbacks (Eli Manning, Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, and Jay Cutler) are off the board.

So I think there are three legitimate options to consider this year.

• Option 1: Wait until at least 10 quarterbacks are off the board, and get into a staring contest with the 12th member of your league to see who will wait the longest to draft a quarterback. You can end up with someone like Romo or Wilson and only have to use a mid-round pick. Your goal should be to take a quarterback right before the first team that wants to select a backup quarterback does so, which could be as late as round nine or ten. (Obviously, this is not a viable strategy in 14-team leagues, but it's an even better one in 10-team leagues.)
• Option 2(a): Use quarterback-by-committee. As it turns out, the schedules are not in our favor this year.  What do I mean by that? The ideal QBBC combo would be if QB13 and QB14 had a great combined schedule. As it turns out, most of the best schedules are held by teams with very good quarterbacks (Denver) or quarterbacks outside the top twenty (the Jets/Chiefs). Selecting Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill would be a great pair according to SOS, and that duo has some upside, but that's a very risky pick.
• Option 2(b): Use quarterback-by-committee, but don't make the picks based just on strength of schedule. If you want to limit yourself to top-16 quarterbacks, Andy Dalton and Ben Roethlisberger have a very good (if not great) combined schedule.

Assuming you want to go the QBBC route, the first step is to rank the defenses. I always start by adjusting last season's data on defenses for strength of schedule. I started with the adjusted FP rankings for each defense listed in the Rearview QB article. Then, I make some adjustments to the defenses based on what's happened since the end of last season. The table below lists my rating for defenses for fantasy quarterbacks, listed from the toughest (the Seahawks) to the easiest (New England).

They key to the QBBC philosophy is to identify which defenses should rank in the bottom quarter of the league when it comes to stopping quarterbacks. New England, Buffalo, and Tennessee were juicy matchups for fantasy quarterbacks last year, and project as similarly enticing in 2013. Quarterbacks facing the Patriots and Bills should be expected to scored 3.4 more fantasy points than they would against an average defense. Teams like the Patriots, Saints, Redskins, and Colts are attractive opponents for another reason: because they have superstar quarterbacks, those games are more likely to feature shootouts. The fast tempo in New England also leads to more plays for Patriots opponents.

Once we rank the defenses, it's easy to then figure out which QB pairings work based on schedule. When the quarterback is home, his opponents gets a +0.3 adjustment, so a quarterback hosting the Patriots receives a score of +3.7.  When that quarterback is on the road, adjustment is 0.3 in the other direction, so playing in Foxboro is worth +3.1. Below is a list of all 496 possible combinations. These are ranked from most favorable to least, with strength of schedule being the only determining factor. The Jets and Cowboys have the easiest combined schedule, but that's obviously not a real QBBC: if you draft Tony Romo, you're going to start him every week.

Option 2(a): Alex Smith and Ryan Tannehill

Jason Wood recently highlighted why Alex Smith is a sleeper we should all be keeping an eye on this August. Smith is in his prime, Andy Reid is a quarterback whisperer, the Chiefs are likely to be trailing in games, and we've seen some hints that Kansas City will be playing at a faster pace this year.  Add in an easy schedule, and Smith is definitely a player to keep an eye on. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill is a breakout candidate, as the second-year quarterback can add some value with his legs and now gets to play with ex-Steeler Mike Wallace. Quarterbacks often make the biggest jump between years one and two, so Tannehill will be an interesting player to monitor. Here is the combined schedule for the two, based solely on picking the easier projected opponent each week:

Week 1: Kansas City @ Jacksonville (0.7)
Week 2: Miami @ Indianapolis (1.6)
Week 3: Kansas City @ Philadelphia (1.1)
Week 4: Miami @ New Orleans (2.5)
Week 5: Kansas City @ Tennessee (2.6)
Week 6: Kansas City vs. Oakland (2.5)
Week 7: Miami vs. Buffalo (3.7)
Week 8: Miami @New England (3.1)
Week 9: Kansas City @ Buffalo (3.1)
Week 10: Miami @ Tampa Bay (0.5)
Week 11: Miami vs. San Diego (0.6)
Week 12: Kansas City vs. San Diego (0.6)
Week 13: Kansas City vs. Denver (-0.5)
Week 14: Kansas City at Washington (1.7)
Week 15: Miami vs. New England (3.7)
Week 16: Miami @ Buffalo (3.1)

That's an excellent combined schedule for those teams, and I think you could mix and match those quarterbacks with good results.  But I understand if you're a little nervous going bargain-shopping at quarterback.  The next section is for the more risk-averse owners.

Option 2(b): Andy Dalton and Ben Roethlisberger:

Here is the combined schedule for Dalton and Roethlisberger, two players you can grab after the first twelve quarterbacks have been drafted.

Week 1: Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee (3.2)
Week 2: Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (-2.3)
Week 3: Cincinnati vs. Green Bay (1.3)
Week 4: Pittsburgh @ Minnesota (2.3)
Week 5: Cincinnati vs. New England (3.7)
Week 6: Cincinnati @ Buffalo (3.1)
Week 7: Cincinnati @ Detroit (0.9)
Week 8: Pittsburgh @ Oakland (1.9)
Week 9: Pittsburgh @ New England (3.1)
Week 10: Pittsburgh vs. Buffalo (3.7)
Week 11: Pittsburgh vs. Detroit (1.5)
Week 12: Pittsburgh @ Cleveland (0.1)
Week 13: Cincinnati @ San Diego (0)
Week 14: Cincinnati vs. Indianapolis (2.2)
Week 15: Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati (-1.7)
Week 16: Cincinnati vs. Minnesota (2.9)

That's a very nice schedule for two top-15 quarterbacks, a great option for folks who want to wait a long time before they select their quarterback. You can be the owner who drafts the 13th and 14th quarterbacks off the board.  Ideally, you would do this back to back in the mid-to-late rounds of your draft, and with Roethlisberger and Dalton, you have a reasonably high floor of expected production.

Just Want One?

Finally, I will close with a look at the quarterbacks with the easiest schedules. In leagues with small rosters, it's difficult to go QBBC, so it's helpful to know which quarterbacks have the easiest (Alex Smith) and toughest (Christian Ponder) schedules. If you want to go the "Stud QB" option, this might also make you select Peyton Manning over Drew Brees.