It has been almost two months since the pre-combine edition for the wide receivers here at Footballguys.com. The combine tweaked things in my projection model in terms of their size and athleticism and the pro days are nearly complete to tie up any loose ends left. Check out some of the general information about my metrics-based approach in the installment from February. Here are the final data points for the 2014 wide receiver class before the NFL draft:
Balanced Prospects
*No glaring holes in their metric profile*
Sammy Watkins
Not much to say about the consensus top receiver in the 2014 class. Watkins is young for an incoming rookie, had well above average production as an 18-year-old (a great sign), and checked all the athletic boxes at the combine.
Odell Beckham Jr.
Beckham was impressive at the combine, but was already projected as one of the more athletic profiles among receivers. While his 4.43 raw 40-time looks impressive, it is just slightly above average considering his sub-200 pound frame he logged at the combine. While many are slotting Beckham has high as the third receiver in the class, the projection model has Beckham more in the WR5-10 range in overall score.
Davante Adams
Adams has a very similar profile to Odell Beckham Jr. in the projection model. Both are close to average in straight-line speed for their size with good athleticism. Adams’ 13.0 career yards-per-catch is less than ideal considering his huge production over the past two seasons. In many draft classes Adams’ projection score would be easily in the top-4, but this crowded class, like for Beckham, has his mark in the high 70s (1-100 scale) in the WR5-10 range.
Donte Moncrief
Moncrief is the name getting lost among this year’s wide receivers. He had arguably the best combine at the position, but may fall to the third or fourth round in the NFL draft. Moncrief’s size and athleticism approach that of Demaryius Thomas and Larry Fitzgerald, but his production falls short of the age-weighted dominance those two exhibited at the college level. On the positive side, Moncrief has an ideal thick build, great timed speed and explosion for his size, and had a breakout college season at just 19.2 years old – all great predictors for future NFL success.
Allen Robinson
Robinson was discussed as a disappointment following the NFL combine, but now a riser following his pro day. Which one is it? I posted a reaction piece over at UTHDynasty.com on the subject as the twitter opinions were flying around following the pro day results. In short, I do not buy all the flip-flopping regarding Robinson. He did well enough at the combine to sustain his high projection model score. Robinson is not a burner and his NFL game will not be based on being able to run a 4.40 at any point. His size and athleticism are among the best in the class and his age-based production is above average. Robinson is also one of the youngest receivers and will be 21.0 years old when the season starts. Typically Robinson would be in the top-5 discussion for rookie drafts, but likely falls in the 1.06-1.12 range because of the depth of this year’s rookie crop.
Jordan Matthews
Nothing really changed for Matthews in the model. He is solid cross the board without being dominant in any one area. While Matthews overall profile would challenge for the top receiver spot in the projection model most years, this year he is down a few spots because he lacks a top mark in any one area. Matthews projects as a solid pro, but for fantasy the big question is if his ceiling is anything more than WR20-35 at his peak.
Michael Campanero
Do not take this inclusion of Campanero to mean he is in the top-10 of my wide receiver rankings. He is not. I was surprised myself when going over all the updated data to see Campanero with solid marks across the board. While shorter than 5’10”, he is very thick, a great attribute that more than makes up for a few inches of height in the model. His athleticism is well above average and his age-weighted production is around the average mark for a drafted wide receiver. Campanero is a little older than one would like to see (23.6 years old when he rookie season will start), but he dominated his final two years of college against that younger competition, which is exactly what you want to see from an older receiver staying in school. While searching for the next Wes Welker is typically a fleeting goal, Campanero has the profile of a receiver that could be an impactful interior target at the NFL level.
Missing Something
Mike Evans
Evans has enviable size and very good athleticism for that large frame. What is missing is a better production resume. While the raw statistics were piled up in the Texas A&M offense, Evans did not dominate the passing game like so many other receivers in this year’s class. Evans is incredibly young, so there is still growth to be expected in his trajectory. Evans is a better version of the ‘more athlete, less production’ group of receiver prospects in years past, but carries that risk factor.
Brandin Cooks
Cooks has great athleticism marks and one of the better production scores among receivers likely to go in the first few rounds this year. His blemish comes from his less-than-ideal size, around average. I have mentioned before that thickness is more important (and predictive) than raw height. Cooks checks out with decent thickness, but he still is sub-195 pounds and 5’10”. That is not ideal. While not a true deal-breaker, more a yellow light in his otherwise top-notch metric profile. Like a Randall Cobb-type before him, Cooks may be more situationally-dependent than true outside receivers.
Martavis Bryant
Bryant has great athleticism marks in the projection model and surprised with a better-than-expected weight of 211 pounds. I projected a Justin Hunter-like height and weight combination, which would have been another profile blemish. Where Bryant is deficient is his poor age-weighted production. Bryant’s production is near the bottom of the entire draft class at 29 (1-100 scale, compared to peers). That production score is around the level of T.J. Jones and Bruce Ellington. While Bryant did play behind first round picks DeAndre Hopkins and Sammy Watkins at Clemson, the ball finds good prospects more times than not. Bryant’s best season is about half of what a decent prospect’s career-high would normally produce. Bryant is a true risk-reward play with a ton of risk, but some glimmer of hope to ‘get it’ at the next level being in the top 15% of all receiver prospects since 1999 in athleticism.
Brandon Coleman
Coleman has passable size (actually a little thin for a 6’6” behemoth) and above-average production, but his poor athleticism is a real downer. At one point in his career, Coleman was one of the more promising receiver prospects around. Now, he may go on day three. His 40-time was decent, but the weight-adjusted 10-yard split, along with pitiful vertical and agility drills really makes him a lower-end outside receiver projection. Looking at former prospects that are at least 6’5” with below-average athleticism, Coleman is better than guys like Brandon Kaufman and Kris Durham, but not that close to a Plaxico Burress-type profile.
Cody Latimer
Latimer is a trendy name with his pro day results (I discussed that in-depth here at UTHDynasty.com), but he remains that ‘more athlete than production’ type that is a big risk historically. Everything physically checks out, but that never turned into good market share production at Indiana. Latimer is better in that regard than Martavis Bryant, but not up to Mike Evans. Latimer is also nearly a year older than Evans. Obviously Latimer comes at a far cheaper projected price tag than Mike Evans, but even creeping up into the mid-second round of rookie drafts is a reach based on his overall profile.
Quincy Enunwa
Enunwa has great athleticism marks and even produced a dominant final college season production-wise. So what is the problem? Historically, receivers with just one good season in college are high-risk. Enunwa fits that profile exactly has his age 19 and age 20 seasons were pitiful before his age 21 breakout. Did he finally get it or was it a flash in the pan? That is why I decided to add more than just a receiver’s final college season or even two. The expectations are lower the younger they are, but the best ones still typically rise above the tide of their peers at any age. Enunwa was an absolute afterthought prior to his final college season, but is now firmly on the sleeper radar, a marked improvement.
Josh Huff
Like many others on this list, Huff has good size and athleticism but that did not translate into above-average production at Oregon. He did progress through his four college seasons and finally reached a decent level of age-weighted production his final year.
Bruce Ellington
Ellington mirrors Josh Huff in terms of his size and athleticism marks, but barely has half of Huff’s production score. Ellington is old for an incoming rookie and his best season was woeful for a 22-year-old in college playing against competition one-to-three years younger. He has more buzz in the draft community than the projection model warrants.
Bennie Fowler
Fowler has ideal size and outside of a slow 10-yard split did very well with his athletic drills. Unfortunately his production makes Bruce Ellington’s look good, making Fowler a late flyer at best.
Missing Plenty
Marqise Lee
Lee’s stock has been fading in the fantasy and dynasty community of late after once being the de facto 1.01 in this year’s rookie crop a year or two ago. Lee has above-average production marks, but his athleticism score is merely average and his size is in the 35-40 range. In addition to being less than 195 pounds, his thickness is sub-par. Combine that with his disappointing speed and explosion marks and Lee is no longer a top rookie draft lock in this loaded class. Also, Marqise Lee will be 22.8 years old when the season begins, far older than many of the other top receivers.
Kelvin Benjamin
Where to begin with Kelvin Benjamin….he has the one-hit wonder moniker with his production and his athleticism score of 37 is the lowest among the receivers projected to be drafted in the first two rounds of the NFL draft. More than the lagging athleticism is the fact that Benjamin took so long to even have a decent season of production as one of the oldest prospects in the class. The fact that the oversized receiver did not do anything until he was nearly 23 years old playing against 20-year-olds is jarring.
Paul Richardson
Richardson has the production, but little else on his projection profile. What that says is Richardson produced despite his limitations in college. With stiff competition in the NFL, will he continue to be out in front of his skis? Doubtful.
Robert Herron
Herron has excellent thickness and may be a prospect with an actual chance to be Wes Welker-esque in the NFL. Of course that type of fantasy production is a long-shot as Herron’s athleticism is below average and his age-weighted production hovers in the 35-40 range, including a drop-off in his final season. There is a glimmer of hope with Herron, but is a low-probability play.
Jarvis Landry
Has there been a prospect that has lost more steam over the past few months? Landry, even with some improvement at his pro day has one of the lowest athleticism scores in my database, dating back to 1999. His production was average, so a thick frame is about Landry’s only redeeming quality (along with being on the young side) in the model. Consider Landry a low-upside play with the best comparable in that low-athleticism group being Vincent Brown in recent years.
Jared Abbrederis
Abbrederis is a relatively well-known name, but his physical traits are far below his average age-weighted production. Throw in his age (will be 23.7 on opening day of the 2014 season) and Abbrederis is a prospect that is firmly on the do-not-draft list.
T.J. Jones
Jones’ best trait is his is relatively young. The rest of his key metrics are in the 25-35 range and he is far down the rankings in this year’s class. The only reason he is included on this list at all is because he is a semi-well-known name.
L’Damian Washington
Washington is 6’4”. There that is the list of his redeeming qualities in the model. He is thin, not athletic for his size, old, and mediocre in production marks.
Small School Receivers of Note
Albert Wilson
Wilson is a name rarely mentioned, but deserves some buzz. Wilson has the third-highest production mark in this year’s class (of 71 prospects in my database), he is young compared to most small school players coming out, and has running back-like thickness. He is not likely to translate directly as a full-time wide receiver, but as a highly-productive athlete, Wilson is very intriguing at a minimum.
Jeff Janis
Janis is the well-known name of this small school list. His athleticism score is in the top-3% of all receivers in the past 15 years. Janis also scored well in age-weighted production, despite being on the old side. He dominated that much with three great seasons to close his college career. While Janis has a greater competition learning curve, his metric peers are mainly top-100 picks that typically emerged into fantasy starters in their careers.
Jordan Harris
Harris, from relatively unknown Bryant University, bested even Jeff Janis’ impressive production score. That is exactly what you want to see from a low-level of competition – dominance. Harris has an ideal build to go along with average athleticism. While he is likely an undrafted free agent fighting for a chance in an NFL team’s camp to start his career, his metrics are high enough to keep on the watch list in the coming months.
John Brown
The Pittsburgh State product had great production, good athleticism, but his build is a big warning sign. At less than 180 pounds, Brown will need to show durability is a limited role before he has any chance for an expanded shot at playing time.
Matt Hazel
Hazel has above average athleticism, but is on the thin side. His production is lacking and for a small school player that makes his a big long-shot to make a roster in the NFL.
Questions, Comments, or Suggestions for future dynasty content can be directed to Chad Parsons through email (parsons@footballguys.com) or on twitter @ChadParsonsNFL.